Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Cluster of thunderstorms across central North Dakota will be the
short term focus with the last HRRR run general trend suggesting
storms may link up across the south central. Latest radar trends
suggest Bismarck and Mandan could see the southern tip if the line
moving into the cities after 8 pm.

UPDATE Issued at 432 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Thunderstorms have been forming into a line along the frontal
boundary in west central North Dakota. This update will focus on
adding likely thunderstorm pops along the line for the remainder
of the afternoon and early evening from the western end of Lake
Sakakawea south through the west river region west of the Missouri
River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)

Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Main forecast highlight in the short term period will continue to
be possible severe convection this afternoon and evening.

Currently...surface boundary not entering far western ND indicated
by the wind fields and sfc Td readings. Axis of instability over
western ND shifting eastward with time along to ahead of the
frontal boundary, with mixed layer CAPE around 500 and MUCAPE 2-3K
J/KG right now. Effective shear around 35kts. Storms
initialization underway with one cell developing past hour just
west of McKenzie county, and CU fields expanding and getting
agitated over my southwest. Expect further development over the
next few hours. Best PVA over far south central CANADA, however
effects of the wave should still help trigger convection over my
west and central today into this evening. With the wave currently
aloft, we think thunderstorms will be more diurnal in nature this
afternoon through mid evening, then waning quite rapidly with the
onset of darkness though a few lingering robust updrafts very
possible over my east after 03z.

More convection may impact southwestern ND late tonight, though
non-severe.

For the 4th of July, strong dry air advection west to east will
result in a mostly sunny day for most if not all locations. There
remains a slight chance of convection over my southeast, though
models continue to push precipitation chances east of my area more
into either eastern SD or the Red River Valley of ND. Westerly
mixing winds coupled with moderate waa will result in temperatures
from the low 80s to low 90s. Warmer along the thermal ridge into
south central ND where we could see 95F or higher. Stayed more
conservative with my peak highs south central in the low 90s for
now.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

West/southwesterly flow aloft will be in place for the majority
of the long term bringing daily chances for thunderstorms though
with slightly below seasonal temperatures.

Upper low over the southwestern Canada remains quasi-stationary
through Tuesday night, then ejects east towards and into the
Northern Plains Wed-Thurs. Decent chances for rain ahead of this
feature as embedded impulses eject east, though hard to time.
Better chances towards Thursday when the low directly impacts our
area. At this time storm severity remains very questionable with
models keeping the more favorable instability to our south. This
may change late next weekend when stronger southwest flow aloft is
bring depicted by medium range models.

Temperatures are forecast to trend towards below average after
Monday with increasing precipitation chances and as the upper
level jet stream dips south with the arrival of the upper level
low. Warmer next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Hazards to aviation will be thunderstorms Sunday evening. Surface
low pressure across western North Dakota with a frontal boundary
extending north-south will be the focus for thunderstorms across
central North Dakota through 03z. This will impact KMOT- KBIS-
KJMS. After 03z vfr all taf sites.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034>036-042-045>047-050-050015-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-WARD-MCHENRY-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-
MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-MCINTOSH-
708 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 /608 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLBALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

NDZ001-002-005-009-010-013-017-018-023-025-031>033-037-040-041-
043-044-048-051-050015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-
WELLS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-LA MOURE-DICKEY-
708 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016 /608 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

WAA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
752 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

NDZ020>022-034-035-042-040130-
OLIVER ND-MORTON ND-BURLEIGH ND-GRANT ND-MCLEAN ND-SHERIDAN ND-
752 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SHERIDAN...
SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN...NORTHWESTERN GRANT...OLIVER...BURLEIGH AND
MORTON COUNTIES...

AT 750 PM CDT/650 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTH OF MERCER TO
10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GLEN ULLIN. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HEART BUTTE DAM AND LAKE HARMON AROUND 810 PM CDT.
  MANDAN AROUND 815 PM CDT.
  MCDOWELL DAM RECREATION AREA AROUND 820 PM CDT.
  BISMARCK...LINCOLN...MENOKEN AND ALMONT AROUND 830 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE HENSLER...SWEET BRIAR
LAKE...FORT CLARK...JUDSON...CROWN BUTTE LAKE...LARK...DOUBLE DITCH INDIAN
VILLAGE...FORT ABRAHAM LINCOLN STATE PARK...BALDWIN AND NELSON LAKE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4668 10210 4673 10209 4715 10156 4724 10134
      4724 10126 4727 10126 4745 10084 4744 10011
      4674 10032 4636 10156
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 289DEG 26KT 4736 10079 4700 10091 4692 10120
4671 10199

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
811 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             10 SW HALLIDAY          47.25N 102.49W
07/03/2016  M1.75 INCH       DUNN               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL FROM 515 PM CDT TO 525 PM CDT. DAMAGE TO SIDING.

&&

KROLAK

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