Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2016
Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND
NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at Jun 21, 2016, 5:30 PM MDT for Billings County, North Dakota. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 21, 2016, 5:30 PM MDT (23:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 21, 2016, 6:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 30 min
- Issued by
- NWS Bismarck, ND
County Billings County, ND
The radar
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 203 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2084 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 46 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 273 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 21, 5:22 PM MDT, 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 21, 5:22 PM MDT, 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 622 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016 Storms continue to move through northeast Montana with some additional storms now starting to develop over southwest North Dakota. Strong instability along with very impressive deep layer shear (60 to around 80 kts) remain in place. Will be monitoring the severe threat through the evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016 Main forecast issue in the short term period will be thunderstorm chances late this afternoon and tonight. Latest satellite and radar imagery is depicting thunderstorms trying to fire off the Bighorns. Also some activity from west of Havre MT to north of Glasgow MT. Surface analysis shows 1005mb surface low over southeast MT with 3mb pressure falls from west central ND into northeast MT. Currently around 1000 j/kg of cape from southeast ND into north central MT but currently capped, and 80 knots of shear from northeast MT into west central ND. The instability will only continue to increase this afternoon while shear remains strong. With a strong upper low and associated forcing tracking across north central MT at this time, think it's only a matter of time before convection fires. Only question is how will things evolve late this afternoon through this evening. Of the many solutions from the mesoscale models today, one thing remains consistent. That would be convection (either supercell or mcs) tracking from around the Williston area...south and east toward the Bismarck Mandan area. Various iterations are showing additional convection north and south of this but thus one area has been consistent. The 00Z SPC SSEO was giving an impressive signal of strong convection centered over northwest north dakota from 00-03 UTC this evening and with forecast flow, this would track toward the south and east. Stronger capping and will likely inhibit convection as we move into eastern portions of central ND. Have heightened severe wording in our forecast products products for this evening. Convection moves into eastern ND for Wednesday then a quiet day on thursday as we are in an area of shortwave ridging ahead of another upper low that will affect the area beginning Friday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016 Short wave ridge will quickly move east across the Northern Plains region transitioning flow aloft to southwesterly during the day on Friday. Strong short wave upper level trough/closed low over the Northern Rockies Friday will lead to height falls ahead of its path and near an associated surface trough over the central and eastern Dakotas. Instability axis with robust mucape will materialize ahead of the surface trough along to east of Highway 83 during peak heating. Uncertainty of whether convection will fire given the degree of the forecast capping inversion with strong mid level waa nosing into North Dakota. More favorable area for thunderstorms looks to be on the edge of the cap across my northeast, which is also where the more favorable shear is located. For now will hold off on mentioning severe given the convective initialization uncertainty. Breezy conditions in the lows wake Saturday and Sunday will advect much drier air into the region along with cooler temperatures. Left pops in for both days, but I anticipate these being dropped in future forecast updates. Possible wind headlines may be needed as well this weekend, and will take a closer look over the next few model cycles. Broad/long wave ridge builds east for early next week, however models show embedded impulses undercutting the ridge so will not completey rule out chances for showers or isolated thunderstorms. Overall precipitation coverage will be minimal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016 Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move over western and central North Dakota tonight into early Wednesday morning. Some of these storms may become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected. && .BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...JJS
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 21, 5:12 PM MDT, 18 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 612 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046-222315- DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER- MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-SLOPE- HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS- 612 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 /512 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NDZ003>005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-222315- RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER- KIDDER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY- 612 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 21, 5:30 PM MDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
530 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016
NDZ032-033-220000-
STARK ND-BILLINGS ND-
530 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN STARK AND CENTRAL
BILLINGS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...
AT 528 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MEDORA...OR 23 MILES EAST OF BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEDORA...FRYBURG AND BELFIELD.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
LAT...LON 4711 10334 4690 10308 4678 10354 4685 10361
4695 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 238DEG 30KT 4688 10351
MARTIN/HEINERTThe office that day
Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 5:36 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Billings, Stark | 54 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.