Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
244 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016

The main focus for this afternoon and evening is for the
possibility of severe thunderstorms, especially across western ND.
Although best area of low level moisture and CAPE values 1000 to
2000 J/KG are expected over far southwest ND into eastern
Montana, coincident with bulk shear around 40 knots, latest CAM
solutions bring initial convection across northwest ND this
afternoon into a somewhat less favorable environment. The main
concern will be across the far southwest where greatest
instability resides, along with higher values of the significant
tornado parameter. SPC just issued a severe thunderstorm watch
in southeast Montana and northwest South Dakota adjacent to this
area. The upper level shortwave will continue to push across the
state on Tuesday supporting showers and thunderstorms. GFS
continues to show 2000 J/KG of CAPE on Tuesday across the western
half of the state as the upper level trough moves into eastern ND.
However, 0-6km bulk shear around 20 kts along with subsidence on
the backside of the trough should limit the severe threat.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016

Upper level ridge briefly builds across the Northern Plains on
Wednesday. SPC outlook extends a marginal risk for severe storms
into western ND on Wednesday, where GFS shows up to 3000 J/KG of
CAPE along with 40 knots of deep layer shear. The ridge axis
continues to shift eastward as the trough over the Pac NW remains
nearly stationary and high pressure builds over the southwest
CONUS. This puts the Northern Plains in a southwest flow from late
Wednesday through the weekend. Will be difficult to time the
individual shortwaves in the southwest flow that could enhance
convection over our region, but pattern will be relatively active,
with periodic chances of strong to severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2016

Continue to expect thunderstorms entering western North Dakota late
this afternoon and early evening and spread east overnight. At
this time a few stronger thunderstorms have developed in northeast
Montana and may move into northwest ND mid/late afternoon. A few
storms could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds across the west. MVFR/IFR stratus may develop late tonight
into Tuesday morning across western North Dakota.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...jns

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
218 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016

NDZ017-032-132045-
MCKENZIE ND-BILLINGS ND-
218 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BILLINGS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MCKENZIE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

AT 217 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES WEST OF GRASSY BUTTE...OR 31 MILES SOUTH OF WATFORD
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GRASSY BUTTE AROUND 235 PM MDT.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE IF THIS STORM APPROACHES
YOUR AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4725 10363 4743 10365 4753 10310 4725 10311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 263DEG 29KT 4736 10347

AYD