Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
255 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Thunderstorms today highlight the short term.

An upper level low centered over the border of Saskatchewan and
northern Montana is keeping the region in southwest cyclonic flow.
Two upper level short waves can be seen on water vapor satellite
imagery. One is located over central North Dakota and lifting
north. This wave was associated with early morning precipitation
that has now generally moved away from western and central North
Dakota. The second wave is currently located near the southern
Black Hills of South Dakota and is starting to spark off scattered
showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Dakotas.

At the surface, low pressure has propagated north from South
Dakota into southeastern North Dakota with a surface trough
extending northwest across central and western North Dakota.
Breaks in the clouds in the south central and southeast should
help to continue destabilizing the atmosphere through the
atmosphere. Latest guidance and RAP mesoanalysis trends suggest a
large area of 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE along a line from Bismarck to
Jamestown and south to the state border. Stronger deep layer shear
is vacating the area with the leading short wave. However,
guidance does suggest an environment marginally conducive for non-
supercell tornadoes/landspouts. Strong low level CAPE/steep lapse
rates, elevated surface vorticity associated with the low/trough,
and very little shear could contribute to one or two brief/weak
tornadoes given the stronger cores. Otherwise, expect pulse style
storms with small hail and gusty winds as the main threats given
the weak shear in place.

Overnight, expect continued showers and thunderstorms to wrap
around the low, mainly in the north and west. Chances for
precipitation will continue through Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Persistant southwesterly flow will continue over the area through
the extended period as trough lingers over the western CONUS. This
will bring a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. The
timing of individual waves lifting through the flow remains
tricky, so will more or less keep broad-brushed chances through
much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across western and central North Dakota. The most numerous
activity should be in the northern TAF sites at KISN and KMOT.
Ceilings may fall to MVFR at KISN and KDIK this afternoon...and at
KMOT after 00z. Regarding KJMS, amendments are not scheduled due
to communication issues with the ASOS.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
243 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>021-031>033-040>044-261945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
243 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 /143 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ022-023-025-034>037-045>048-050-051-261945-
SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SIOUX-
EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
243 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 /143 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A BRIEF OR WEAK TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ZH/JJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
212 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

NDZ010-018-021-252000-
MOUNTRAIL ND-MCLEAN ND-DUNN ND-
212 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN...
SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTRAIL AND NORTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

AT 211 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF MCKENZIE BAY RECREATION AREA...OR 32 MILES NORTHEAST
OF KILLDEER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARSHALL...VAN HOOK PARK...PARSHALL BAY RECREATION AREA...DEEP WATER
CREEK RECREATION AREA...SKUNK CREEK BAY RECREATION AREA AND POUCH
POINT RECREATION AREA.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR LAKE SAKAKAWEA...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...
YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON
THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4794 10187 4789 10187 4765 10236 4775 10253
      4813 10222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 217DEG 21KT 4776 10237

HARGROVE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
218 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

NDZ019>021-252000-
OLIVER ND-MERCER ND-MCLEAN ND-
218 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MCLEAN...CENTRAL MERCER
AND WESTERN OLIVER COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 218 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF ZAP...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF BEULAH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEULAH...HAZEN...STANTON...RIVERDALE...PICK CITY...
HAZEN BAY RECREATION AREA...LAKE SAKAKAWEA STATE PARK...
BEULAH BAY RECREATION AREA...EMMET AND DAKOTA WATERS RECREATION AREA.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR LAKE SAKAKAWEA...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...
YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON
THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4737 10194 4778 10175 4741 10116 4698 10175
      4698 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 208DEG 11KT 4738 10182

HARGROVE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 S BEULAH              47.23N 101.78W
05/25/2016                   MERCER             ND   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY MULTIPLE INDIVIDUALS.

&&

JJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

NDZ010-011-019>021-034-035-042-045-252130-
MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-MORTON-BURLEIGH-GRANT-SIOUX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...UNDERWOOD...
WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...MANDAN...BISMARCK...ELGIN...CARSON...
NEW LEIPZIG...FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN
326 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 /226 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016/

...THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

AT 325 PM CDT OR 225 PM MDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY EXTENDING FROM
MOUNTRAIL COUNTY...ACROSS THE LAKE SAKAKAWEA AREA...SOUTH TO
MORTON AND GRANT COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 20 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY LAKE SAKAKAWEA...AND ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH OF THE LAKE TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER.

IF YOU ARE ON LAKE SAKAKAWEA OR ANY OTHER LAKES OR ON THE
MISSOURI RIVER...AND YOU SEE STORMS APPROACHING...GET OUT OF THE
WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE.

JV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
413 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

NDZ034-042-045-252200-
MORTON ND-SIOUX ND-GRANT ND-
413 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL GRANT...
NORTHEASTERN SIOUX AND SOUTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
CDT/400 PM MDT/...

AT 413 PM CDT/313 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHIELDS...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SELFRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHIELDS AND BREIEN.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4621 10124 4631 10132 4653 10096 4629 10075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 237DEG 15KT 4626 10121

HARGROVE