Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Bismarck, ND

August 1, 2016Dickey County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 1, 2016, 7:30 PM CDT for Dickey County, North Dakota. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 1, 2016, 7:30 PM CDT (00:30 UTC)
Expired: Aug 1, 2016, 8:30 PM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Dickey County, ND

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 1, 3:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2143 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -30 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1096 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 166 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.6
Supercell composite: 14.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

403 
WUUS53 KBIS 020030
SVRBIS
NDC021-020130-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0206.160802T0030Z-160802T0130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
730 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN DICKEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 729 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELLENDALE...
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELLENDALE AROUND 735 PM CDT. 
  LUDDEN AROUND 810 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GUELPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 9870 4608 9868 4608 9801 4594 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 272DEG 28KT 4598 9859 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHILD

2 follow-up statements

033 
WWUS53 KBIS 020046
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
746 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDC021-020130-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-160802T0130Z/
DICKEY ND-
746 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DICKEY COUNTY...

AT 746 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ELLENDALE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LUDDEN AROUND 830 PM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GUELPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 9870 4604 9867 4605 9801 4594 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 276DEG 17KT 4598 9851 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHILD

865 
WWUS53 KBIS 020100
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
800 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDC021-020130-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-160802T0130Z/
DICKEY ND-
800 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DICKEY COUNTY...

AT 759 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELLENDALE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELLENDALE...LUDDEN AND GUELPH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 9870 4604 9867 4605 9801 4594 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 275DEG 16KT 4597 9847 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SCHILD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 1, 6:24 PM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 6:24 PM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
624 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Will let the severe thunderstorm watch stand for now, then
consider taking counties out in the western portion of the watch
in the next hour or two. Still watching a weak outflow boundary in
central and southern Burleigh county, now approaching Menoken and
pushing southwest. Will await and see what may develop from this.
Current forecast on track with severe thunderstorms south central
and James River Valley this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Severe thunderstorm watch 429 issued and valid until 11 pm cdt
Monday. Updates to text products imminent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating over
central Manitoba with a couple of shortwave troughs migrating
through the cyclonic flow across central ND.

The main highlight in the short term period will be potential for
severe thunderstorms across the James River Valley through this
evening. Uncertainty remains on how things may/will evolve as high
resolution convective allowing models differing on this. Main
players are a surface front/density gradient situated over the
James River Valley with dewpoints in the lower 70s as opposed to
60F-65F farther west. A mid level/700mb shortwave was noted near
Fort Yates, and this is forecast to slide atop the cold front this
afternoon/evening. This is in line with the latest SPC outlook
today with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall the
main threats. This is the main area we are monitoring.

Otherwise, very little if any precipitation expected west,
although a jet streak was seen sliding across northeast MT into
south central Manitoba. The right entrance region could induce
enough vertical motion for an isolated non severe thunderstorm
west.

For tonight and Tuesday, shortwave ridging takes control behind
our departing upper low and shortwave trough. Tuesday will see a
brief return to dry weather with highs in the 80s under sunny
conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Active weather increases Tuesday night and is full control
Wednesday, as another upper low now located just off of Vancouver
Island is forecast to migrate along the US/Canadian border. SPC
Day 3 already indicating a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms
for all but western ND. Minot, Bismarck, and Jamestown per NSharp
soundings are all uncapped by 21z, with ample cape and shear present
ahead of slightly negatively tilted trough and ahead of a sharp
cold front. Good chance for severe weather to unfold given the
current scenario and setup. Will add a mention of severe wording
in the gridded forecast.

Breezy and cooler Thursday behind the system with highs in the
70s.

The pattern remains progressive and active, with another
mid/upper level transitory shortwave ridge Thursday night through
Friday producing dry and tranquil conditions. Although broad
ridging remains for most of the weekend, there will be enough
instability for a slight chance mention, but dry most of the time.
The GFS and ECMWF agree that Monday looks to be the best chance
for thunderstorms across western and central ND.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

KJMS terminal will have severe weather through 0130z Tuesday.
Expect ping pong ball size hail and very heavy rain with wind
gusts to 45kt. Elsewhere a clearing sky will commence through 06z.
Skc thereafter and through the rest of the Taf period at all
terminals.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 1, 6:41 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-022345-
WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
641 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 /541 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL THE BISMARCK NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AT 1-800-247-0212 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>022-031>033-040-041-043-044-022345-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
641 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 /541 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 1, 5:30 PM CDT, 2 hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
430 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ042-044-012300-
ADAMS ND-GRANT ND-
430 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GRANT AND EAST
CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 430 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES SOUTH OF NEW LEIPZIG...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF ELGIN...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN GRANT
AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4605 10184 4606 10184 4607 10185 4607 10189
      4606 10190 4607 10194 4607 10206 4621 10206
      4621 10200 4626 10200 4629 10158 4603 10158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 269DEG 19KT 4616 10196

CJS

Special weather statement, Aug 1, 6:17 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
617 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ042-045-020000-
SIOUX ND-GRANT ND-
617 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL GRANT AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT/600 PM MDT/...

AT 617 PM CDT/517 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF WATAUGA...OR 29 MILES EAST OF LEMMON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GRANT
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4595 10173 4613 10161 4605 10099 4594 10105
      4594 10171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 292DEG 20KT 4602 10156

CJS

Local storm report, Aug 1, 6:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
626 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND GST     JAMESTOWN               46.91N  98.71W
08/01/2016  E60 MPH          STUTSMAN           ND   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED WITH THE WIND. OTHER
            PUBLIC REPORT INDICATED PEA SIZE HAIL AND GETTING
            LARGER.

&&

NHEINERT

Special weather statement, Aug 1, 6:43 PM CDT, 47 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ025-020015-
FOSTER ND-
643 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FOSTER COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

AT 643 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MCHENRY...OR 23 MILES EAST OF CARRINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRACE CITY...MCHENRY AND JUANITA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4741 9873 4753 9885 4759 9876 4759 9850
      4749 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 231DEG 21KT 4754 9864

SCHILD

Special weather statement, Aug 1, 6:47 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
647 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ048-051-020030-
DICKEY ND-LA MOURE ND-
647 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DICKEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAMOURE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 647 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF FULLERTON...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EDGELEY...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OAKES...LAMOURE...VERONA...FULLERTON AND GLOVER.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4618 9855 4636 9855 4641 9804 4608 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 269DEG 14KT 4628 9845

CJS

Local storm report, Aug 1, 6:48 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
648 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             1 SSE JAMESTOWN         46.90N  98.70W
08/01/2016  M1.00 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NHEINERT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 1, 7:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	LaMoure	57 min
Aug 1, 7:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dickey	36 min
Aug 1, 7:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dickey	62 min
Aug 1, 9:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dickey	35 min
Aug 1, 9:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dickey	47 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.