Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 31, 2016Dunn County, McLean County, Mountrail County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 31, 2016, 5:53 PM MDT for Dunn County, McLean County, Mountrail County, North Dakota. It was in force for 52 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2016, 5:53 PM MDT (23:53 UTC)
Expired: Jul 31, 2016, 6:45 PM MDT
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

Counties Dunn County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mountrail County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 153 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 31, 5:55 PM MDT	HAIL 1	2 Wsw Little Missouri S, ND
Jul 31, 5:55 PM MDT	HAIL 1	7 Ne Oakdale, ND

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 2 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 31, 2:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 174 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 263 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -263 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1097 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 92 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 95 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

642 
WUUS53 KBIS 312353
SVRBIS
NDC025-055-061-010045-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0194.160731T2353Z-160801T0045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
653 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  SOUTHERN MOUNTRAIL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
  NORTHERN DUNN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT/645 PM MDT/

* AT 653 PM CDT/553 PM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5
  MILES NORTHEAST OF LITTLE MISSOURI STATE PARK...OR 16 MILES NORTH
  OF KILLDEER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MCKENZIE BAY RECREATION AREA...LITTLE MISSOURI STATE PARK...
  DEEP WATER CREEK RECREATION AREA...RAUB...
  SKUNK CREEK BAY RECREATION AREA AND POUCH POINT RECREATION AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4767 10276 4768 10264 4777 10264 4786 10254
      4772 10190 4737 10267 4755 10290
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 238DEG 23KT 4759 10263 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

2 follow-up statements

532 
WWUS53 KBIS 010007
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
707 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NDC025-055-061-010045-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-160801T0045Z/
MCLEAN ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-DUNN ND-
707 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM
CDT/645 PM MDT/ FOR NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN...SOUTHERN MOUNTRAIL AND
NORTHERN DUNN COUNTIES...

AT 706 PM CDT/606 PM MDT/...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF MCKENZIE BAY RECREATION AREA TO
LITTLE MISSOURI STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCKENZIE BAY RECREATION AREA...LITTLE MISSOURI STATE PARK...
DEEP WATER CREEK RECREATION AREA...RAUB...
SKUNK CREEK BAY RECREATION AREA AND POUCH POINT RECREATION AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4767 10276 4768 10264 4777 10264 4786 10254
      4772 10190 4737 10267 4755 10290
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 225DEG 38KT 4774 10240 4755 10277 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

034 
WWUS53 KBIS 010044
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
744 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NDC025-055-061-010052-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-160801T0045Z/
MCLEAN ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-DUNN ND-
744 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN...SOUTHERN
MOUNTRAIL AND NORTHERN DUNN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM CDT/645 PM
MDT/...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN...SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTRAIL AND SOUTH CENTRAL WARD
COUNTIES...UNTIL 815 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4767 10276 4768 10264 4777 10264 4786 10254
      4772 10190 4737 10267 4755 10290
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 238DEG 23KT 4774 10240 4755 10277 

$$

HEINERT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 31, 2:48 PM MDT, 3 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 2:48 PM MDT, 3 hours 5 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
348 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Current surface analysis places low/frontal boundary over eastern
Montana with moist southerly flow over much of the Dakotas. Upper
level analysis places weak ridge pushing towards central North
Dakota while low spins over central Alberta. Variety of short
waves continue to slide through strong southwest flow behind
aforementioned ridge with a notable one pushing though eastern
Montana. Some light elevated convection continue over northwest
North Dakota...though a stronger storm is starting to develop over
far southwest North Dakota.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, surface based storms
will continue to develop over eastern Montana into western North
Dakota as cap erodes ahead of aforementioned surface low and
short wave. Strong instability noted over western into central
North Dakota where moisture continues to surge in, with cape
values in excess of 3000 j/kg over western North Dakota, and
values in excess of 4000 j/kg towards the central. Adequate 0-6
km bulk shear of 35 kts or greater for supercell development is
noted across the area. Storms will push east across the area
overnight with strong winds/hail as a primary threat. Forecast
soundings also suggest that a few storms may pose a heavy rain
threat with the moisture rich atmosphere, particularly slower
moving ones.

Next wave and affiliated frontal boundary pushes into the area
very early Monday morning bringing additional chances for
showers/thunderstorms which will continue into mid-day. Latest
guidance suggests higher coverage of precipitation with this
system, particularly over central ND/James River Valley. Severe
threat remains primarily ahead of the front over the James River
Valley later in the day, though would not be surprised if any
storms strengthen in the morning as the front moves through with
ample instability remaining. Conditions dry out from west to east
in the afternoon/early evening.

Quiet weather expected Tuesday as weak ridge passes over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Main highlight in the long term period will be another round of
thunderstorms Wednesday/Wednesday evening, followed by a quiet
period thereafter into next weekend.

Next closed mid level low moves east through the Northern Plains
Wednesday through Wednesday night bringing a decent chance for
thunderstorms to our region. Similar set-up as we see today
though models place this closed low farther south tracking east
along the International Border.

Thursday through Saturday look mainly dry as an upper level ridge
builds across the Rockies then migrates east into the Great Plains
by Saturday night, coupled with surface high pressure over the
state. Return flow and a transition to a more active
west/southwesterly flow aloft late next weekend into the following
work week will see increasing chances for precipitation.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop over western
North Dakota today and spread east this evening. Large hail and
damaging winds will be possible from these storms. Thunderstorm
chances will continue overnight and possibly into Monday morning.
Late tonight into early Monday morning areas of MVFR cigs will be
possible over portions of south central North Dakota.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...NH

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 1:45 PM MDT, 4 hours 8 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-011945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 /145 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE STORMS WILL THEN PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ALSO...SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST
TO EAST. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 4:50 PM MDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
450 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NDZ018-312315-
DUNN ND-
450 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

AT 449 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTH OF MANNING...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF DICKINSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANNING AND HIRSCHVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4734 10269 4718 10225 4698 10276 4698 10280
      4707 10296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 228DEG 32KT 4706 10280

HEINERT

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 5:05 PM MDT, 48 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
605 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NDZ018-312330-
DUNN ND-
605 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DUNN COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT/530 PM MDT/...

AT 602 PM CDT/502 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRASSY BUTTE...OR 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KILLDEER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LITTLE MISSOURI STATE PARK AND OAKDALE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR LITTLE MISSOURI BAY...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. DO NOT BE
CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

CAMPERS SHOULD MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ FOR NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4756 10310 4767 10281 4767 10272 4743 10244
      4736 10306 4743 10310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 245DEG 19KT 4748 10301

HEINERT

Local storm report, Jul 31, 5:11 PM MDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
611 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             5 S ROSS                48.24N 102.55W
07/31/2016  E1.25 INCH       MOUNTRAIL          ND   PUBLIC

            .

&&

MM

Local storm report, Jul 31, 5:17 PM MDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
617 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             1 SSE STANLEY           48.31N 102.38W
07/31/2016  M1.00 INCH       MOUNTRAIL          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL ONGOING AT TIME OF CALL.

&&

MM

Local storm report, Jul 31, 5:22 PM MDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             12 N NEW TOWN           48.15N 102.49W
07/31/2016  E1.00 INCH       MOUNTRAIL          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL ONGOING AT THE TIME OF CALL.

&&

KROLAK

Local storm report, Jul 31, 5:34 PM MDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 N 4 BEARS LODGE       48.07N 102.56W
07/31/2016                   MOUNTRAIL          ND   PUBLIC

            FUNNEL REPORTED AT TIME OF CALL AND WAS
            ONGOING.

&&

MM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 31, 1:04 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Golden Valley	41 min
Jul 31, 3:13 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Sheridan	32 min
Jul 31, 3:39 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Pierce	66 min
Jul 31, 4:28 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Pierce	47 min
Jul 31, 6:07 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Pierce	23 min
Jul 31, 3:20 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Bowman	25 min
Jul 31, 3:27 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Slope	33 min
Jul 31, 3:45 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bowman	45 min
Jul 31, 4:30 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Mountrail	60 min
Jul 31, 4:40 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Slope	35 min
Jul 31, 4:41 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Bowman	34 min
Jul 31, 4:50 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dunn	25 min
Jul 31, 5:05 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dunn	25 min
Jul 31, 5:21 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mountrail	54 min
Jul 31, 5:36 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Dunn	24 min
Jul 31, 5:44 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, McLean, Mountrail	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.