Frost Advisory 4, NWS Bismarck, ND

379 
WWUS73 KBIS 152335
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

NDZ017>020-031>034-040>044-161200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FR.Y.0004.160516T0900Z-160516T1300Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...HALLIDAY...
BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
MARMARTH...MOTT...NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...
BOWMAN...HETTINGER
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 /535 PM MDT SUN MAY 15 2016/

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO
8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ MONDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNCOVERED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

JJS

365 
WWUS73 KBIS 161122
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

NDZ017>020-031>034-040>044-161300-
/O.CON.KBIS.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-160516T1300Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...BEULAH...
HAZEN...CENTER...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...MARMARTH...
MOTT...ELGIN...BOWMAN...HETTINGER
622 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016 /522 AM MDT MON MAY 16 2016/

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNCOVERED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LEAVE SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS COVERED OR INDOORS UNTIL THE
TEMPERATURES RISE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

CJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Sun May 15 2016

Sunny skies across the forecast area late this morning. There is
some cumulus cloud development beginning but with only a shallow
layer of moisture around 5k feet expect mostly conditions this
afternoon. Do expect a little more clouds and wind from Minot to
Jamestown and east. However, nothing like the past few days so a
pleasant Sunday afternoon is in store. Did bump up temperatures
just a bit most areas as we are already within 5-7 degrees of
forecast highs in many locations.

UPDATE Issued at 900 AM CDT Sun May 15 2016

No significant changes to the going forecast. We ended the
frost and freeze hazards and updated morning lows based on latest
observations.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun May 15 2016

No changes of note were made with this update. Temperatures are
near or below freezing over much of the area at 11 UTC and thus
the frost and freeze headlines will be continued. Radar imagery
early this morning shows significant ground clutter, suggesting a
strong surface based inversion exists. A first look at the data
from the 12 UTC Bismarck weather balloon launch confirmed a very
sharp surface-based inversion. That is a function of the strong
radiational cooling that occurred overnight, but we still expect
it to erode quickly this morning, allowing for a pleasant day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 15 2016

Only forecast highlight in the short term period will be ongoing
frost/freeze headlines this morning.

Currently, surface high pressure ridge stretching from northwest
to southeast across the Northern Plains region. Frost/freeze
headlines on track so no changes planned there.

Pleasant day today with warmer temperatures in the 60s under a
partly to mostly sunny sky. For tonight, at this time do not
anticipate the need for frost/freeze headlines with forecast min
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Always possible for a
stray ob slipping to or below the freezing point with dry air
lingering across the region, coupled with a mostly clear sky and
light sfc winds. The day shift today will want to re-evaluate of
course.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 15 2016

Quiet in the extended period through much of the work week with
high pressure dominating over the Northern Plains. A more active
period is possible as we head into the later parts of the week and
into next weekend.

Upper level ridging through mid-week followed by a broad upper
trough over the northern Pacific, eventually evolving into
another closed low over the western U.S. Thursday-Thursday night.
This feature will be our potential weather maker later this week
and into next weekend as it nudges the upper ridge east and
transitions our flow aloft to southwesterly. Model blends bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms into the west on Friday and
extending into central North Dakota Friday night and Saturday.
Large spread in models remain at this time regarding low level
moisture return and thus potential thunderstorm activity and
severity chances. This period (Friday-Saturday) will be the main
weather focus for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Sun May 15 2016

VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites across western and
central North Dakota through the TAF period. A narrow ridge of high
pressure extended from southern Alberta/Saskatchewan southeastward
across western North Dakota into southeastern South Dakota. Expect
westerly winds at KMOT/KJMS with afternoon gusts to 20 knots
possible. Fairly light westerly winds at KISN/KBIS and variable
winds at KDIK. A cold front extending from a low pressure system
over western Ontario is expected to move south into North Dakota
tonight. Winds should become northerly at KMOT/KJMS with some VFR
ceilings mainly after 03z.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1147 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-161700-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
1147 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 /1047 AM MDT SUN MAY 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TWH