Freeze Warning 2, NWS Bismarck, ND

180 
WWUS73 KBIS 150226
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
926 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

NDZ017>021-031>034-040>045-151030-
/O.CON.KBIS.FZ.W.0002.160515T0800Z-160515T1400Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-
MORTON-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...HALLIDAY...
BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...UNDERWOOD...
WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
MARMARTH...MOTT...NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...
BOWMAN...HETTINGER...FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN
926 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 /826 PM MDT SAT MAY 14 2016/

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ TO
9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ SUNDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS WILL BE KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNCOVERED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NDZ001>005-009>013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-151030-
/O.CON.KBIS.FR.Y.0003.160515T0800Z-160515T1400Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...
LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...
KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...ELLENDALE
926 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNCOVERED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
WAA

558 
WWUS73 KBIS 150619
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
119 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

NDZ017>021-031>034-040>045-151400-
/O.CON.KBIS.FZ.W.0002.160515T0800Z-160515T1400Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-
MORTON-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...HALLIDAY...
BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...UNDERWOOD...
WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
MARMARTH...MOTT...NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...
BOWMAN...HETTINGER...FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN
119 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 /1219 AM MDT SUN MAY 15 2016/

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS WILL BE KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNCOVERED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NDZ001>005-009>013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-151400-
/O.CON.KBIS.FR.Y.0003.160515T0800Z-160515T1400Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...
LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...
KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...ELLENDALE
119 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNCOVERED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

HEINERT

404 
WWUS73 KBIS 150827
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

NDZ017>021-031>034-040>045-151400-
/O.CON.KBIS.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160515T1400Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-
MORTON-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...HALLIDAY...
BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...UNDERWOOD...
WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
MARMARTH...MOTT...NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...
BOWMAN...HETTINGER...FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN
327 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 /227 AM MDT SUN MAY 15 2016/

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS WILL BE KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNCOVERED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NDZ001>005-009>013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-151400-
/O.CON.KBIS.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-160515T1400Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...
LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...
KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...ELLENDALE
327 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNCOVERED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

NH

879 
WWUS73 KBIS 151123
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

NDZ017>021-031>034-040>045-151400-
/O.CON.KBIS.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160515T1400Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-
MORTON-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...BEULAH...
HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
MARMARTH...MOTT...ELGIN...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...FORT YATES
623 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 /523 AM MDT SUN MAY 15 2016/

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS WILL BE KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNCOVERED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LEAVE SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS INDOORS OR COVERED UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

$$

NDZ001>005-009>013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-151400-
/O.CON.KBIS.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-160515T1400Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...MOHALL...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...MINOT...TOWNER...
RUGBY...MCCLUSKY...HARVEY...CARRINGTON...BISMARCK...STEELE...
JAMESTOWN...LINTON...NAPOLEON...EDGELEY...ASHLEY...OAKES
623 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNCOVERED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LEAVE SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS INDOORS OR COVERED UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

$$

CJS

876 
WWUS73 KBIS 151359
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
859 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

NDZ017>021-031>034-040>045-151500-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160515T1400Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-
MORTON-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...HALLIDAY...
BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...WASHBURN...UNDERWOOD...
WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...
MARMARTH...MOTT...NEW ENGLAND...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...
BOWMAN...HETTINGER...FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN
859 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016 /759 AM MDT SUN MAY 15 2016/

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS
MORNING...

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING.

$$

NDZ001>005-009>013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-151500-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-160515T1400Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...BOWBELLS...POWERS LAKE...
LIGNITE...COLUMBUS...PORTAL...MOHALL...GLENBURN...SHERWOOD...
BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...SHELL VALLEY...
ST. JOHN...WILLISTON...NEW TOWN...STANLEY...PARSHALL...MINOT...
VELVA...TOWNER...DRAKE...RUGBY...MCCLUSKY...GOODRICH...HARVEY...
FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...BISMARCK...STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...
LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...
KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...ELLENDALE
859 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.

$$
TWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat May 14 2016

Main forecast concern in the short term period will be frost/freeze
highlights tonight, then temperatures and dewpoints on Sunday.

Currently, a shortwave trough and associated vorticity maxima is
dropping south through Manitoba. Combined with daytime heating, this
is producing a widespread cumulus field across western and central
ND. Scattered showers are developing where best forcing is aligned
with greatest mid level moisture, from southeast Saskatchewan south
southeast through central ND.

Expect showers to taper late afternoon to early evening with winds
quickly diminishing this evening. Flattening SC layer may linger
into the evening but expect clear to partly cloudy skies overnight.
Utilized a blend of cooler guidance to yield forecast lows in the
mid 30s most areas, with lower 30s and even a few upper 20s
southwest. Will issue a freeze warning for southwest ND with a frost
advisory for the rest of western and central ND.

On sunday we strayed from default guidance to a blend of EC/MET/MAV
numerical guidance for Highs and utilized the 15 UTC Experimental
HRRR as a guide for afternoon dewpoint/rh. This results in
widespread 20 to 30 percent afternoon minimum humidities, with some
upper teens not out of the question. Fortunately, surface high
pressure is situated over the area and winds are expected to be
light. Therefore we do not anticipate any fire weather issues. Will
keep an eye on things. The Turtle Mountains are about the last to
green up and could see winds in the 15-20 mph range Sunday, but at
this time it looks like humidities here will be more in the 25 to 30
percent range.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat May 14 2016

Quiet in the extended period through much of the work week. However
we could see a more active period as we head into next weekend.

A weak backdoor cold front moves through northern and eastern ND on
Sunday evening with surface high pressure building over the
eastern Dakotas on Monday. Looks a few degrees colder Monday from
around Minot to Jamestown and east, the southwest may be a bit
warmer with the rest of us nearly the same as Sunday.

We remain quiet through most of the remainder of the work week
as both the GFS and ECMWF as well as their ensembles drop an
upper level low currently moving onto the northwest U.S. coast,
inland a bit but then almost due south into the desert southwest
while upper level ridging remains in control over the northern
plains. a broad upper trough over the northern Pacific eventually
evolves into another closed low over the western U.S. this low
currently looks to have more influence on the northern plains as
we head into next weekend. For now our model blend solution brings
a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the west on Friday and
extending into central North Dakota Friday night and Saturday.
Still quite a few differences in the deterministic solutions and
how any thunderstorm activity may play out through the weekend but
it does look like a significant increase in humidity as we move
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat May 14 2016

Northwest winds of 15kt to 25kt along with cigs between 5kft and
10kft agl across the aerodromes through 02z Sunday. A vcsh was also
added to KMOT/KJMS through 02Z Sunday. Otherwise, vfr cigs/vsbys
through 18z Sunday.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
Sunday for NDZ017>021-031>034-040>045.

Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for NDZ001>005-
009>013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1202 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-151715-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
1202 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016 /1102 AM MDT SAT MAY 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TWH