Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Binghamton, NY

185 
WWUS51 KBGM 081901
SVSBGM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
301 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

NYC053-065-081915-
/O.CON.KBGM.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-160908T1915Z/
MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-
301 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES...

AT 300 PM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR
BOONVILLE... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BOONVILLE AROUND 305 PM EDT. 
  FORESTPORT AND ALDER CREEK AROUND 315 PM EDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4360 7510 4303 7534 4315 7590 4316 7588
      4328 7587 4333 7588 4348 7581 4342 7553
      4361 7511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 271DEG 35KT 4345 7540 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
154 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be hot and humid, with scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms, ahead of a weak cold front. Dry and
cooler weather will return behind this front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Updated at noon... Central NY and northeast Pa are covered in a
very moist southwesterly flow late this morning with dew points
generally in the lower 70s and temperatures rising into the 80s.
Surface low pressure is located over Lake Huron with a couple of
weak surface troughs extending south- southeastward across New
York. The primary surface cold front is weak and located well to
the west. At mid- levels forcing for lift looks weak and
disorganized with no significant short- wave triggers evident.

Latest high resolution models all indicate development of
scattered convection across the western half of NY state later
this afternoon with some tendency for the convection to organize
upscale into weak bow-echoes as they move east toward central NY
toward evening. Convection is forecast to weaken around 00z as it
moves east toward the Catskills and Poconos. Model forecast MLCAPE
values are showing their usual biases, with the GFS much too low
generally less than 1000 J/kg, while the NAM may be too high
indicating values as large as 2000-2500 J/kg by 21z. Wind speeds
and bulk shear values from 700-500 mb range from 25-30 kts. So...
weak large-scale forcing, moderately large instiability, shear
only marginally strong enough for organized convection, and high
resoultion model signatures are all pointing toward some
convection this afternoon with only a small risk for some isolated
severe weather probably in the form of localized strong winds.
Very moist atmosphere also implies the potential for some locally
heavy rainfall with any stronger storms. Temperatures will be well
above normal for early Septembmer with highs in the upper 80s to
near 90. Previous discussion is below.

400 AM Update...

A cold front over the upper midwest will move into the area by
tonight, bringing some relief to the heat by tomorrow. Ahead of
the front dewpoints around 70 and afternoon highs around 90 will
make it feel more like late July than the first week of September!
While we expect to stay below heat advisory criteria, urban areas
such as Syracuse, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre will likely approach
100 degrees for heat indices this afternoon. With kids back to
school, not a bad reminder to have them drink plenty of water
today, especially if playing outside.

A pre frontal trof will be the perfect spark for afternoon storms
feeding on the moist environment and peak heating. NAM CAPE values
remain the highest and are probably a tad too high around 1500
j/kg. HRRR/RUC/GFS/ARW/NMM/SREF values of 600 to 1000 j/kg are
more reasonable. Isolated damaging winds are the main threat with
dry air in the mid levels, strong low level lapse rates, and an
inverted V sounding. Small line segments are the most likely storm
mode this afternoon with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 25-30 kts not
being quite strong enough for organized larger lines. Will
continue to highlight isolated damaging wind threat in the HWO as
this remains in line with the marginal risk for severe weather
from SPC. Best timing for storms to initiate will be 18Z to 21Z,
with peak storm threat through 03Z tonight. The actual cold front
moves through later tonight, ending any storm threat from west to
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 am update...Ltl chg in the shrt term as we start unde hipres
that will give way to a low and fnt aprchg from the lakes on sat.
Made minor adjustments to timing and temps based on latest guid,
but no real chg to the overall scenario. Prvs disc conts blo.

230 PM update...

Weak high pressure will be over the area Friday and Friday night.
Cooler and less humid but high temps still 80 to 85. Decreasing
clouds Friday as the cold front drops south. Clouds come back
Friday night ahead of the next system.

This system stronger than Thursday's. A surface low moves
northeast out of the Midwest through the Great Lakes into
southeast Canada. A sharp upper level trough will also move east
just behind it the surface low and trailing cold front. Timing is
good being late in the day. High temps back up to the mid and
upper 80s with dewpoints mid 60s. Low level instability marginal
at 1k CAPE with weak upper level height falls and mid level
cooling. Wind fields strong with 40 kts of shear. Better forcing
than the last several events and what is expected Thursday. Will
need to watch for severe potential and possible adding it to the
hazardous weather outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 am update...minor temps adjustments to new guid otrw no chgs
attm. Prvs disc blo.

230 PM Update...

Lingering showers Saturday night as the front pushes southeast.
Little change with a large dry surface high pressure Sunday to
Tuesday. Also cooler weather but closer to normal. Highs warm to
around 80 Tuesday.

Wednesday disagreement on timing of the next cold front. Went with
the slower Euro and WPC with fropa late day. Highs in the 70s may
need to be upped if front slows more. Chance pops for now. Again
this front with another transitory upper level trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A couple of lines of showers and thunderstorms will likely move
across the area this afternoon through this evening. The first
line is developing south-southeast of Lake Ontario at 18z and will
move across the northern and possibly central part of the area
from 18z-21z. A second area of storms is expected to move from
southwest NY eastward across much of the area between 21z-02z.
Have gone with tempo groups to account for these showers and
storms late this afternoon into early this evening with brief
periods of mvfr/ifr conditions expected in passing storms.

Clearing skies will occur later this evening once the showers move
east of the area. Areas of low clouds and fog will develop after
midnight with areas of mvfr conditions and localized ifr.
Conditions will improve to vfr all areas by late morning Friday
with clearing skies.

Winds will be from the southwest at less than 10 kts this
afternoon into this evening... but briefly stronger gusts can be
expected near any thunderstorms. Winds will turn to the west-
northwest at less than 10 kts later tonight and continue on
Friday.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday...Restrictions possible from showers and
thunderstorms, especially later in the afternoon and at night.

Sunday...Possible restrictions early from showers, with improving
conditions likely by afternoon.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Heden
NEAR TERM...Heden/MSE
SHORT TERM...DGM/TAC
LONG TERM...DGM/TAC
AVIATION...Heden/MSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
410 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

NYZ009-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-PAZ038>040-090815-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-
BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-
410 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. A
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT AND LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ062-PAZ043-044-047-048-072-090815-
SULLIVAN-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
410 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...

THE COMBINATION OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY COULD
BRING HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
IN THE URBAN AREAS OF THE WYOMING VALLEY. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO
BE OUTDOORS TODAY YOU MAY WANT TO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ015>018-090815-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-
410 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...
...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

THE COMBINATION OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY COULD
BRING HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN AREAS SUCH AS THE CITY OF SYRACUSE. IF YOU ARE PLANNING
TO BE OUTDOORS TODAY YOU MAY WANT TO TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HEDEN