Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
858 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be very warm and muggy with showers and thunderstorms.
A few thunderstorms could have damaging winds and heavy rain. A
cold front will move across the area this evening and end the
showers. This front will also bring drier air and quiet weather
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 am update...

Showers and thunderstorms over western NY and moving quickly into
the Finger Lakes. Continues to be a sharp gradient to the moisture
and instability right on the front edge of convection. This whole
area will move east. Some of the convection will outrun the
forcing and become elevated. Severe potential in central NY
uncertain with cloudy skies and early convection. Cold front late
today may set more thunderstorms off late afternoon but the main
area now. Best chance will be further east where it will heat up a
little more.

In PA a better threat with more sun and heating but winds lighter.
Some increase in winds late afternoon. A second area of
thunderstorms will form midday to the lee of Lake Erie and move
southeast into northeast PA and Sullivan County after 2 PM.

400 AM EDT Update...
Hot, muggy and a chance for showers and thunderstorms is the theme
for today. Light rain showers are moving east across portions of NY
and PA this morning due an embedded shortwave propagating across the
northeast and expect more to develop today.

There will be two different waves that will move across the region
today, one in the morning - a prefrontal wave, and one in the
afternoon- the cold front. Both are expected to generate showers and
thunderstorms today.

This morning a pre-frontal wave will push across NEPA and Cntrl NY.
This initial wave has decent dynamics with it is what is generating
a line of showers west of the great lakes. This wave will push into
W NY/PA around 12Z. Dew pts this morning are currently in the upper
50s to mid 60s and are expected to rise into the 70s by mid morning.
Temps across the region will quickly increase this morning as well
which will result in a muggy, and unstable atmosphere. 0-2km SR
inflow will range from 15-20 kts which is good for a convective
environment, however the 0-6KM Bulk shear across there region this
morning will be fairly weak around 20-25 knots. Lapse rate are also
on the low side, thus this morning do not expect any severe storms
attendant to the pre-frontal wave. The wave dynamically this morning
is more impressive than the 2nd wave that will move through
region this afternoon.

Temps will rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s this afternoon. Issued
a heat advisory for Pike Co, where heat index values are expected to
rise at and above 100 degrees.

Showers will develop over W NY/PA and push eastward into cntrl NY
and NEPA by 15-18Z. The 2nd wave will push into the region mid-
afternoon. This 2nd wave will force a cold front across the region
and this boundary will help regenerate storms over the area. The
cold front will start to move into cntrl NY around 21Z.
This front will eventually push the showers east of our region by
03Z Tuesday. The shear by late afternoon will increase to around 30-
40 knots across the region, Thus activity may be more organized this
afternoon than this morning. Currently we are under a marginal for
most of the CWA and the region under a slight risk just brushes
south of our CWA. Concerns that may inhibit severe weather are if
mid lvl lapse rates will become steep enough to support svr
levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM EDT Update...
High pressure will build back over the region on Tuesday and last
through Wednesday. Temps will range in the uppr 80s to low 90s
during this period with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s,
which will keep temps close to their ambient temps and slightly
more comfortable.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast models begin to diverge during this period as far as the
day to forecast specifics, especially after Thursday. However in
the big picture, the overall set up will be for lower heights and
increasing broad upper level troughiness over eastern Canada back
toward the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a series of waves look to move
west to east through the base of the trough bringing the area
increasing chances of much needed rain.

To start the period, there will be chances for scattered
showers/storms by late Thursday as a cold front moves south toward
the area. Temperatures will be quite warm ahead of this front with
highs Thursday in the 80s to near 90. We keep rain chances in the
forecast for Friday through next weekend as indications are that
the above mentioned cold front may stall in the vicinity of the
area as a series of waves ripple east along the boundary. The
temperature trend during this period should be for somewhat cooler
daytime highs, mainly in the low to mid 80s, with warmer lows due
to increasing cloud cover and moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold fnt aprcg wrn NY this mrng. Convection dvlpg out ahd of the
fnt racing east is xpctd to weaken as it aprchs the TAF sites so
mainly VFR conds xptd. Twrd midday, fnt aprchs with heaviert tstms
and brief reductions in cigs and vsby as the storms pass. Grnl
VFR conds with drier air bhd the fnt with a wly flow.

OUTLOOK...

Tue to Wed night...mainly VFR.

Thu to Fri...showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR to MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ048.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KAH/TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...DGM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
846 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-261300-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-
846 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN DAMAGING
WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-072-261300-
SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-
LUZERNE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
846 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY
BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PAZ048-261300-
PIKE-
846 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY
BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1021 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

NYZ022>025-055-251500-
SCHUYLER NY-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-CHEMUNG NY-STEUBEN NY-
1021 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
SCHUYLER...SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN...CHEMUNG...SOUTHERN TOMPKINS AND
CENTRAL TIOGA COUNTIES...

AT 1021 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR REYNOLDSVILLE TO NEAR
BIG FLATS TO NEAR ELKLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MONTOUR FALLS...ODESSA AND BIG FLATS AROUND 1025 AM EDT.
  HORSEHEADS...MILLPORT AND HORSEHEADS NORTH AROUND 1030 AM EDT.
  ELMIRA...WEST ELMIRA AND ELMIRA HEIGHTS AROUND 1035 AM EDT.
  NEWFIELD...LINDLEY AND BREESPORT AROUND 1040 AM EDT.
  LAWRENCEVILLE AND CAYUTA AROUND 1045 AM EDT.
  DANBY...CATON AND ERIN AROUND 1050 AM EDT.
  SOUTH DANBY AROUND 1055 AM EDT.
  SPENCER...VAN ETTEN AND LOCKWOOD AROUND 1100 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4223 7701 4242 7679 4235 7614 4213 7631
      4200 7674 4200 7747
TIME...MOT...LOC 1421Z 280DEG 26KT 4241 7674 4222 7693 4202 7733

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1036 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

NYZ036-044>046-055-056-251530-
OTSEGO NY-MADISON NY-BROOME NY-TIOGA NY-CORTLAND NY-CHENANGO NY-
1036 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MADISON...
WESTERN OTSEGO...CHENANGO...SOUTHEASTERN CORTLAND...CENTRAL BROOME
AND NORTHEASTERN TIOGA COUNTIES...

AT 1035 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR NELSON TO TAYLOR TO
BERKSHIRE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CINCINNATUS...PITCHER AND ERIEVILLE AROUND 1040 AM EDT.
  MORRISVILLE...GEORGETOWN AND MC DONOUGH AROUND 1045 AM EDT.
  LEBANON...PIERCEVILLE AND SOUTH LEBANON AROUND 1050 AM EDT.
  HAMILTON...GREATER BINGHAMTON AIRPORT AND PLYMOUTH AROUND 1055 AM
  EDT.
  CASTLE CREEK AROUND 1100 AM EDT.
  NORWICH...NORTH NORWICH AND OXFORD AROUND 1105 AM EDT.
  BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN AND COLUMBUS AROUND 1120 AM EDT.
  GILBERTSVILLE...HARPURSVILLE AND SOUTH BROOKFIELD AROUND 1125 AM
  EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 7520 4232 7537 4231 7542 4227 7542
      4214 7555 4225 7628 4262 7592 4291 7584
      4288 7544 4286 7543 4287 7531 4285 7506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1435Z 286DEG 29KT 4288 7579 4261 7585 4230 7615

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1046 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

NYZ024-055-056-PAZ038-039-251545-
BROOME NY-TIOGA NY-CHEMUNG NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-BRADFORD PA-
1046 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CHEMUNG...
SOUTHWESTERN BROOME...TIOGA...NORTHWESTERN SUSQUEHANNA AND NORTHERN
BRADFORD COUNTIES  ...

AT 1046 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SPENCER TO NEAR ERIN
TO NEAR MILLERTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ERIN AND VAN ETTEN AROUND 1050 AM EDT.
  WAVERLY...SPENCER AND LOCKWOOD AROUND 1055 AM EDT.
  BARTON...LITCHFIELD AND CANDOR AROUND 1105 AM EDT.
  RIDGEBURY...WELLSBURG AND NICHOLS AROUND 1110 AM EDT.
  OWEGO AND LOUNSBERRY AROUND 1115 AM EDT.
  CHEMUNG AND NEWARK VALLEY AROUND 1120 AM EDT.
  SAYRE...ATHENS AND SOUTH WAVERLY AROUND 1125 AM EDT.
  LITTLE MEADOWS...MILAN AND TIOGA TERRACE AROUND 1130 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4216 7668 4224 7665 4225 7662 4228 7662
      4228 7647 4226 7647 4227 7642 4216 7570
      4196 7588 4184 7625 4191 7692 4200 7692
      4200 7697 4203 7697
TIME...MOT...LOC 1446Z 280DEG 31KT 4227 7656 4215 7663 4197 7700

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

NYZ045-046-056-057-251615-
OTSEGO NY-BROOME NY-DELAWARE NY-CHENANGO NY-
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DELAWARE...OTSEGO...
SOUTHEASTERN CHENANGO AND SOUTHEASTERN BROOME COUNTIES  ...

AT 1130 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HARTWICK TO MORRIS TO
NEAR UNADILLA TO NEAR SANFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HARTWICK...MORRIS AND EXETER CENTER AROUND 1135 AM EDT.
  ONEONTA...HYDE PARK AND LAURENS AROUND 1140 AM EDT.
  COOPERSTOWN...OTEGO AND FRANKLIN AROUND 1145 AM EDT.
  MIDDLEFIELD...MARYLAND AND MILFORD AROUND 1150 AM EDT.
  DAVENPORT...CHERRY VALLEY AND SCHENEVUS AROUND 1155 AM EDT.
  WALTON...DELHI AND WORCESTER AROUND 1200 PM EDT.
  EAST MEREDITH...DOWNSVILLE AND CORBETT AROUND 1205 PM EDT.
  BOVINA CENTER AROUND 1210 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 4235 7459 4195 7496 4211 7568 4235 7544
      4255 7529 4285 7510 4278 7467 4263 7463
      4252 7471 4244 7463 4241 7458
TIME...MOT...LOC 1530Z 269DEG 39KT 4271 7511 4256 7521 4235 7537 4214
7554

PCF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

NYZ056-057-PAZ038>040-251645-
BROOME NY-DELAWARE NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-NORTHERN WAYNE PA-BRADFORD PA-
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...EAST CENTRAL BRADFORD AND
NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES  ...

AT 1139 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON TO NEAR
VESTAL CENTER TO NEAR LE RAYSVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BINGHAMTON AND CHENANGO BRIDGE AROUND 1145 AM EDT.
  BRACKNEY AROUND 1150 AM EDT.
  KIRKWOOD AND CONKLIN AROUND 1155 AM EDT.
  RUSH AROUND 1200 PM EDT.
  MONTROSE...HALLSTEAD AND WINDSOR AROUND 1205 PM EDT.
  SUSQUEHANNA DEPOT...NEW MILFORD AND LANESBORO AROUND 1215 PM EDT.
  SUSQUEHANNA AND HARFORD AROUND 1220 PM EDT.
  DEPOSIT AND GIBSON AROUND 1225 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 4176 7535 4166 7557 4185 7634 4200 7613
      4200 7610 4203 7610 4219 7595 4200 7518
TIME...MOT...LOC 1539Z 293DEG 27KT 4213 7590 4198 7603 4185 7623

PCF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1219 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DEPOSIT                 42.06N  75.43W
07/25/2016                   BROOME             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED ON WIRES

&&

BGM