Frost Advisory 3, NWS Binghamton, NY

814 
WWUS71 KBGM 241511
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1111 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016


NYZ009-036-037-045-046-057-062-251200-
/O.CON.KBGM.FR.Y.0003.160925T0600Z-160925T1200Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-DELAWARE-
SULLIVAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...HAMILTON...ONEIDA...ROME...
UTICA...NORWICH...ONEONTA...DELHI...WALTON...MONTICELLO
1111 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN CATSKILLS... UPPER SUSQUEHANNA... AND TUG 
  HILL TO MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* HAZARDS...AREAS OF FROST.

* TEMPERATURE...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S LATE TONIGHT 
  INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FROST DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

HEDEN

649 
WWUS71 KBGM 241909
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016


NYZ009-036-037-045-046-057-062-251200-
/O.CON.KBGM.FR.Y.0003.160925T0600Z-160925T1200Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-DELAWARE-
SULLIVAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...HAMILTON...ONEIDA...ROME...
UTICA...NORWICH...ONEONTA...DELHI...WALTON...MONTICELLO
309 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN CATSKILLS... UPPER SUSQUEHANNA... AND TUG 
  HILL TO MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. 

* HAZARDS...AREAS OF FROST.

* TEMPERATURE...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S LATE TONIGHT 
  INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FROST DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

HEDEN

810 
WWUS71 KBGM 250030
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
830 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

NYZ009-036-037-045-046-057-062-251200-
/O.CON.KBGM.FR.Y.0003.160925T0600Z-160925T1200Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-DELAWARE-
SULLIVAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...HAMILTON...ONEIDA...ROME...
UTICA...NORWICH...ONEONTA...DELHI...WALTON...MONTICELLO
830 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ONEIDA, MADISON, CHENANGO, OTSEGO, DELAWARE, AND
  SULLIVAN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* HAZARDS...WIDESPREAD FROST.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S LATE
  TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FROST DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

722 
WWUS71 KBGM 250656
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

NYZ009-036-037-045-046-057-062-251200-
/O.CON.KBGM.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-160925T1200Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-DELAWARE-
SULLIVAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...HAMILTON...ONEIDA...ROME...
UTICA...NORWICH...ONEONTA...DELHI...WALTON...MONTICELLO
256 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...ONEIDA... MADISON... CHENANGO... OTSEGO... 
  DELAWARE... AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* HAZARDS...AREAS OF FROST.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FROST DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
159 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Building Canadian high pressure will produce cool Fall-like
conditions through the weekend. Patchy frost is possible early
Sunday morning and perhaps again for some spots Monday morning.
After slightly milder temperatures Monday, our next system will
bring a round of showers through the region late Monday into
early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 pm update...
Changes to match current conditions. Little change late tonight
and Saturday. Cold front in the far south of the cwa.
Thunderstorm has formed near it and is tracking across Luzerne
County. Scattered showers with brief heavy rain rest of ne pa. In
NY just isolated light showers. Temperatures falling quickly with
dewpoints shortly after. Cloudy across most of the area which will
slowly push south into SYR/RME during the overnight. Quick
clearing between sunrise and noon rest of area.

previous discussion...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the potential
for rain showers and even a few weak thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening in the wake of a passing cold front...along with
noticeably cooler temperatures tomorrow and the low chance of fog
Saturday morning.

Upper level trough and associated surface cold front currently
dropping s/sewd through srn NY and ne PA with most of the low level
moisture pooling well behind the front around Lake Ontario/Finger
Lakes and ewd into the Adirondack Mtns. The deep layer moisture
along and ahead of front to the south has mixed with the dry air the
mid and upper levels and left much of the Twin Tiers and ne PA under
mostly sunny skies this afternoon. This area will see some
destabilization through the early evening...and possibly trigger
scattered convection through 7-8 pm...but with the lack of deep
layer moisture and a focused forcing mechanism, not expecting any
significant storms or rainfall for that fact. Should be mostly a non-
event.

The noticeably cooler air will drop in tomorrow with low clouds and
patchy fog in the morning...mixing out by mid/late morning and
leaving most of the area under mostly sunny skies. The fog will
likely be confined to the ern Finger Lakes over to the nrn Catskills
where skies are expected to clear out rather than the south where
low clouds will linger until sunrise. The much drier air moving in
from the north and plenty of sun will allow for rather deep mixing
Saturday afternoon. The gusty winds aloft should easily mix down to
the surface. Expect sustained nw winds around 10 to 15 mph...and
gusts 20 to 25 mph. So...even though skies will be sunny...the
presence of gusty winds and temperatures only in the low to mid 60s
will make it feel...well pretty much like fall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
305 PM EDT Update...
The main concern for this period will be frost...

Canadian high pressure will start to build southward across central
NY and northeast PA Saturday night attendant with strong NW flow
aloft. This NW flow will allow the continuation of CAA into the
region which will keep 850MB temps around 2 to 3 deg C through the
night. This airmass will also be very dry, and combined with
strong subsidence over the region, skies will remain clear overnight.
The combination that was mentioned above, will result in strong
radiational cooling, and temps falling into the low to mid 30s over
central NY Sunday morning and the Twin Tier region. Temps the
further south into NEPA may keep in the low 40s. Late Saturday
night/Sunday morning may have widespread frost. We may be issuing
a frost advisory in the future if trends continue to lean towards
this direction.

High pressure will remain over the region on Sunday which will keep
the cooler temps intact. Temps may struggle to reach the 60s in some
areas. Particularly over the Western Catskills. Frost may be a
problem again Monday morning, however there will be clouds moving
into the region and we will be transiting into WAA. Not very
confident at this moment it will as widespread as Sunday morning,
but will closely monitor this period. The best chance will be
along the higher terrain.

The Canadian ridge will shift eastward Sunday night and be east of
the region by Monday morning allowing moisture to start to move back
into the region ahead of the next storm system. The day will start
out sunny, but become mostly cloudy by the evening. Monday will
remain dry with temps reaching mid to uppr 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
305 PM EDT Update...
The extended forecast continues to be challenging. However,
guidance has agreed upon the next storm system will impact the
region Monday night into Wednesday morning. The best chance for
rain appears to be Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. There are
slight differences on the timing of the cold front, the ECMWF
slightly faster with the GFS trailing behind. The uppr lvl low
that forced this front across the area will remain over southern
Canada through Wed night. Thus, embedded waves may round the base
of the trough and generate showers over the region. High pressure
will build back over the region on Thurs which will generate quiet
weather for the weekend.

Temps during the period will range in the upper 60s to low 70s during
the day and fall into the uppr 40s to low 50s overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Post-frontal clouds are already scattering out for KRME-KSYR but
for a time overnight will still cause some CIG restrictions at
terminals further south especially KBGM-KAVP. Improvements will be
had though 08Z-14Z as very dry air from building Canadian high
pressure starts to work its way in as has already occurred KSYR-
KRME. After 14Z VFR all terminals with clouds becoming few. Light
north-northeast winds early this morning will become north to
northwest around 10 knots during the day with some gusts well into
the teens, before going very light and/or variable this evening.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday night-Monday...VFR except possible early morning valley
fog ELM which could be IFR or worse.

Late Monday-Early Tuesday...A period of restrictions likely as a
frontal system moves through with showers.

Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday...Generally VFR but brief restrictions
possible in scattered showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJT/MDP
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

NYZ015-016-PAZ043-044-047-048-072-241930-
YATES-SENECA-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
317 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ009-017-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-241930-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-
TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-
BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-
317 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE PLANTS
MAY NEED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.