Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
627 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

.UPDATE...This Evening
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Severe thunderstorms will track across portions of northeast Iowa
and far southwest Wisconsin through early evening. Damaging winds
and heavy rainfall will be the main threats. The threat will
quickly diminish after 9 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Atmosphere remains primed for potentially strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening along and south of
I-90 as a cold front sweeps across the region. Lingering activity
from last night's convection has moved east of the forecast area
with a secondary line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
cold front from east of Austin to near Winona, moving east-
southeast around 30 mph. SPC mesoanalysis depicts a storm
environment with roughly 20 to 40 kts of deep layer shear and up
to 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE. As storms drop south, shear and surface
convergence weaken, but instability remains steady if not
increasing slightly. Convection allowing models still struggling a
bit with timing/evolution of storms, but in general agreement that
severe chances diminish later this evening, moving out of the
forecast area in the 02-05Z period. Primary threats remain strong
winds, hail, and heavy rain. Forward motion of storms precludes
widespread flooding, but could still see urban ponding/flash
flooding with rain rates around one inch per hour.

Tonight through Friday will be dry as surface high pressure builds
across the region. Temperatures will be much cooler with afternoon
highs only in the mid 70s to lower 80s. With dew points falling
into the 50s to near 60 degrees, tomorrow will be pleasant.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Continued dry and pleasant conditions for the weekend with high
pressure dominating the regional weather pattern. Temperatures
each day will top out in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees with light
wind. There exists a slight chance for showers and storms on
Monday across the far southwest forecast area as moisture begins
to increase along southerly return flow. Otherwise, expect
continued dry conditions with similar temperatures to the weekend.

Tuesday through Thursday, 500 hPa ridge attempts to build across
the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. One short wave flattens the
ridge somewhat Monday night into Tuesday with additional ill-
resolved waves in southwest flow aloft Wednesday into Thursday.
Many details to work out given model differences, but chance POPs
seem reasonable at this time. Higher confidence in a return to
warmer/more humid conditions with highs Tuesday and beyond into
the mid 80s with dew points once again approaching 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Thunderstorms will end by mid evening. Before they do MVFR to IFR
conditions are possible in any stronger storms. KRST should be in
the clear from the storms but KLSE will continue to see them
through mid evening. A cold front sweeps through later this
evening with VFR conditions expected from the late evening into
Friday.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ086>088-094>096-WIZ041>044-053>055-
061-051000-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-LA CROSSE-
MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
234 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. A FEW COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED OR URBAN FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN.

SEVERE THREAT RUNS THROUGH 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

MNZ079-WIZ017-029-032>034-051000-
WABASHA-TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-
234 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

RIECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
618 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 WNW OSTRANDER         43.64N 92.52W
08/04/2016  M3.71 INCH       MOWER              MN   MESONET

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE DECORAH            43.27N 91.75W
08/04/2016  M63 MPH          WINNESHIEK         IA   AWOS

            WIND GUST MEASURED BY AWOS AT DECORAH AIRPORT.

&&

MAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
634 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             4 SW DORCHESTER         43.43N 91.57W
08/04/2016  E0.50 INCH       ALLAMAKEE          IA   PUBLIC

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
639 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NW FRANKVILLE         43.25N 91.70W
08/04/2016  M56 MPH          WINNESHIEK         IA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 5 NW FRANKVILLE /RDCI4/.

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
643 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S WINONA              44.01N 91.66W
08/04/2016  M1.70 INCH       WINONA             MN   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL.

&&

MAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
644 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

IAZ011-030-WIZ053>055-061-050115-
ALLAMAKEE-CLAYTON-RICHLAND-CRAWFORD-GRANT-VERNON-
644 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLAYTON...CENTRAL
ALLAMAKEE...CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN VERNON...GRANT AND RICHLAND
COUNTIES...

AT 643 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF NEW ALBIN TO NEAR
MARQUETTE TO NEAR HAZLETON. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLATTEVILLE...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...VIROQUA...
LANCASTER...GUTTENBERG...ELKADER...LANSING...BOSCOBEL...FENNIMORE...
CUBA CITY...DICKEYVILLE...CASSVILLE...MCGREGOR...
GARNAVILLO AND BLOOMINGTON.

PEOPLE ATTENDING THE CLAYTON COUNTY FAIR...AND COUNTRY ON THE RIVER
2016 SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4264 9071 4268 9090 4265 9090 4265 9161
      4350 9133 4350 9122 4355 9124 4355 9019
      4317 9019 4321 9029 4320 9043 4251 9043
      4251 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 274DEG 32KT 4348 9116 4305 9123 4259 9186

RIECK