Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
306 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

All eyes on severe threat this evening. 05.20Z analysis shows a
low pressure center across southeast SD with a weak stationary
front extending northeastward into north-central MN and a warm
front draped southward through southwest IA into northeast MO.
There's an additional wind shift line farther to the east from
southwest MN into northeast IA. Atmosphere is well capped across
the tri-state region per 18Z MPX special sounding and noting lack
of significant cumulus development on regional satellite. However,
surface dewpoints have risen into the upper 60s to lower 70s
across the forecast area, resulting in MUCAPE values from 2000 to
3000 J/kg. Farther west, values are topping 5000 J/kg, so more
than enough instability for severe storms.

A cluster of thunderstorms has already developed north of the CAP
and along the stationary front across west-central MN. Discrete
supercells with deep layer shear in excess 40 kts are expected
across central MN late this afternoon before thunderstorms become
more numerous and grow upscale into a convective line/MCS along
nose of increasing 850 hPa jet/moisture transport associated with
approaching short wave. Best deep layer shear remains north of
forecast area, but 0-3 km bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts more than
enough to sustain cold-pool dominated convective line. Most
probable threat remains damaging wind in excess of 60 mph. Large
hail still possible, especially early this evening across
southeast MN into western WI. With PWATs rising to near 1.5
inches, heavy rain is also expected, although the faster forward
progression of storms should generally limit overall accumulations
to less than 2 inches. Best chance for localized flooding will be
in urban areas. Cannot rule out the isolated tornado, but anything
across our area likely to be of the QLCS variety.

Still a few timing differences between convection allowing models,
but consensus is for leading line of storms to reach our northwest
forecast area between 7 and 10 pm and then race east-southeastward
through the rest of the evening along northern extent of CAP/
instability gradient.

Additional thunderstorms possible on Wednesday across southeast
half of forecast area along weak, southward moving stationary
front as ripples of short-wave energy move through southwest flow
aloft. However, timing/coverage is uncertain, so chance POPs seem
reasonable at this time. Overall, much of the day should be dry,
although it will still be warm and muggy with afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

Next best chance for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong
to severe will be Thursday/Thursday night. Deep layer shear will
be relatively strong through the day given an approaching Pacific
short-wave trough and with persistent dewpoints in the upper 60s
to lower 70s, instability should also exceed 2500 J/kg of MUCAPE.
Ongoing convection from a dissipating MCS across mainly IA
Thursday morning could play a major role in re-development later
in the day. Differences in surface features also a concern. For
now, will keep POPs in the upper chance/low likely category and
provide greater detail after tonight's severe threat.

Thunderstorm chances wane Friday into the weekend with mostly dry
conditions as high pressure builds back across the region. Highs
will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. 500 hPa ridge axis
shifts eastward early next week with a return to southwest flow
aloft and increasing thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

Warm advection led to the development of some lower stratus cloud
this morning, but that was beginning to thin and break up now
that heating of the day is assisting the mixing. Anticipate this
trend to continue, as despite increasing boundary layer moisture,
there is also an increasing temperature profile, leading to
convective inhibition. Attention is focused on convective
potential by evening for the airfields. Storms are forecast to
develop over western MN this afternoon, and race east across the
TAF locations during the evening hours. Primary risk other than
lower ceilings and visibility is the potential for strong winds
as the line rolls through. Added a wind group to the TEMPO for
now. After the line passes, it is anticipated that we will return
to VFR conditions. But there is some question brought forward by a
few of the models that we could see some post-frontal low cloud
and showers. For not not thinking that will manifest, but will
have to watch for that possibility for later updates.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...MW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
147 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-061100-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
147 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE... AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM
7 PM UNTIL 2 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AND SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MORE STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AS WELL...BUT THAT REMAINS A BIT TOO FAR AWAY TO DETERMINE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED...BUT UPDATED WEATHER BRIEFINGS ARE
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AND FACEBOOK PAGE.

MW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
452 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-052345-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-CLAYTON-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-FLOYD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-
WINONA-DODGE-WABASHA-HOUSTON-MOWER-FILLMORE-OLMSTED-TREMPEALEAU-
BUFFALO-
452 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...

THROUGH 600 PM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.  HOWEVER THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

LAT...LON 4420 9305 4419 9255 4437 9255 4437 9243
      4445 9243 4441 9208 4460 9200 4459 9117
      4409 9118 4405 9122 4407 9131 4399 9132
      4398 9142 4378 9124 4264 9137 4264 9208
      4291 9209 4291 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 271DEG 37KT 4323 9332

JSB