Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows vigorous upper level
trough over southern Manitoba moving south. Latest 08z surface
analysis indicates cold front extending from southern
Ontario...northern Minnesota into southern North Dakota.

Main forecast concerns today are precipitation chances and low end
severe possibilities. The 30.00z GFS/NAM are in decent agreement in
tracking upper level trough/surface cold front into the Great Lakes
Region today. Main difference between the models is the 30.00z NAM
more progressive with convective development today and is based
on higher dewpoints resulting in higher instability along ahead of
the surface front/upper level trough. The 30.00z deterministic
models continue to show main forcing/moisture transport/convergence
along and east of the Mississippi river and weaker
forcing/moisture convergence west of the Mississippi river in
association with the upper level trough/surface front. This would
allow the higher chances of precipitation along and east of the
Mississippi river with lesser chances west of the Mississippi
river. Some of the 30.00z hi-resolution models continue to suggest
this with more widespread convection along east of the Mississippi
river and the potential for several broken line/scattered
convection west of the Mississippi river. Have trended
precipitation chances higher along and east of the Mississippi
river and lesser chances the farther west into southern Minnesota
and northern Iowa.

Next concern is the potential for low end/marginal severe
thunderstorms. The 30.00z GFS/NAM indicate 20 to 25 knots of 0-3km
shear and 30 to 40 knots of 0-6km shear well behind the surface cold
front during the late morning hours. Both the 30.00z GFS/NAM suggest
this shear could possibly catch up with the convection during the
late afternon hours. If this occurs...some of the storms could be
strong...however with weak instability...severe potential remains low.

Tonight...Upper level trough/surface cold front push east and south
of forecast area and surface ridge builds into forecast area after
06z Friday. Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for patchy
to areas of fog to develop in the Mississippi river tributaries and
along the Mississippi river.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Surface ridge remains in control of the forecast area Friday into
Saturday night. This will provide dry weather across the forecast
area. Clear skies and light winds Friday night will result in patchy
to areas of fog to form in river valleys.

Main forecast concerns Sunday through Wednesday are small
precipitation chances across the forecast area. The 30.00z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are in decent agreement in developing west to east
zonal flow aloft through 00z Wednesday...then amplify upper level
ridge over the Central United States after 00z Wednesday.
Significant differences occur between the 30.00z models through
the period. Sunday night into Independence day...models differ on
how far north the system over the Central Plains States
tracks...as the 30.00z GFS is farther north and pushes convection
into parts of northeast Iowa...thus the small precipitation
chances over this area. Next concern is upper level ridge
amplifying over the Central Plains States...as the long range
deterministic models differ on strength. This will have impacts on
movement and placement of shortwave troughs Tuesday into Wednesday
and associated convection. For now small precipitation chances are
warranted for this time period. Temperatures will warm Sunday
through Wednesday...as the 30.00z GFS/ECMWF/GEM advect warmer
airmass into the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. High
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s
through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Primary aviation concern will be passage of a cold front this
afternoon and associated thunderstorms. Line of thunderstorms from
KMJQ to KMDZ as of 30.1730Z will move southeastward around 25 kts
through this afternoon and evening. IFR ceilings/visibility
possible with the strongest storms, otherwise a reduction to at
least MVFR is likely at KRST/KLSE. Thunderstorm wind gusts up to
30 kts expected, possibly stronger. Will focus on a two hour
period at both TAF airfields, from 30.19Z to 30.21Z at KRST and
from 30.20Z to 30.22Z at KLSE. A return to VFR conditions is
expected after thunderstorms pass with scattered clouds and a wind
shift to the northwest.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

MNZ079-086-087-094-WIZ017-029-032-011300-
WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-MOWER-TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-
1208 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DISCERN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT ANY REPORTS OF HAIL OR
STRONG WINDS ARE MUCH APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ088-095-096-WIZ033-034-041>044-
053>055-061-011300-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WINONA-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-
MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
1208 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT ANY REPORTS OF HAIL OR
STRONG WINDS ARE MUCH APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

AJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1221 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

MNZ088-WIZ032-033-301800-
WINONA-TREMPEALEAU-BUFFALO-
1221 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN WINONA...SOUTHWESTERN
TREMPEALEAU AND SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTIES...

AT 1219 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FOUNTAIN
CITY...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF WINONA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WINONA AROUND 1225 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE PERROT STATE PARK...
LOCK AND DAM 5 A...BLUFF SIDING AND MARSHLAND.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4412 9171 4416 9163 4404 9143 4397 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 320DEG 11KT 4412 9165

AJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1241 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

MNZ079-WIZ032-301830-
WABASHA-BUFFALO-
1241 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WABASHA AND NORTHERN
BUFFALO COUNTIES...

AT 1239 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PLUM CITY TO STOCKHOLM TO 6 MILES
EAST OF GOODHUE. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...DIME SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WABASHA AROUND 105 PM CDT.
  MODENA AND KELLOGG AROUND 120 PM CDT.
  ELGIN AROUND 125 PM CDT.
  ALMA...PLAINVIEW AND BUFFALO CITY AROUND 130 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE
WAUMANDEE...COCHRANE... GILMANTON...WEST NEWTON AND WEST ALBANY.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4437 9255 4437 9243 4445 9243 4445 9224
      4444 9221 4441 9208 4451 9204 4456 9204
      4459 9203 4460 9200 4460 9194 4443 9153
      4439 9153 4419 9187 4419 9208 4411 9208
      4411 9232 4419 9232 4420 9243 4429 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 308DEG 23KT 4459 9213 4437 9251

AJ