Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
635 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016

Main challenge is timing/coverage/severity of thunderstorms and
associated rain amounts/flash flooding potential through tonight.
14.12Z CAMs have come into better agreement and will follow a
consensus approach through tonight.

14.19Z analysis shows a surface low across eastern SD with a warm
front draped from near Sioux Falls, SD to south of Waterloo, IA
and a cold front dropping south across eastern NE. Two lines of
convection have fired north and east of these boundaries
respectively, lifting to the northeast around 25 mph. General
idea is for thunderstorms to become more numerous this afternoon
and evening as a short-wave trough currently across central NE
lifts northeastward.

Warm front is forecast to reach the vicinity of the MS River by
00Z and with surface dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to lower
70s, expect MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg and possibly as high as
2500 J/kg across northeast IA. That said, deep layer shear
associated with short-wave aloft remains confined mainly to areas
south and west of the forecast area. Latest RAP shows 0-6, 0-3,
and 0-1 km shears all below 25 kts through the night. Weak shear,
combined with rising PWATs to near 2 inches, deep warm cloud
depths, and increasing mid level moisture transport lend to a
higher heavy rain threat. Add to that the relatively moist/
saturated soils from recent rainfall the past couple weeks and the
flash flood threat has increased enough to warrant a Flash Flood
Watch for areas along and west of the MS River through 06Z tonight
where 1-2 inches, and as high as 5 inches of rainfall are
possible. See Hydrology section below for more details. That's not
to say there still couldn't be some stronger storms through this
evening west of the MS River capable of larger hail and gusty/
damaging winds, but the overall forecast environment is more
favorable for heavy rain at this time.

Thunderstorms will lift north and east of the forecast overnight
into Wednesday morning. The potential exists for storm re-
development Wednesday afternoon mainly northeast of the I-94
corridor. Some of these storms could produce marginally severe
hail and gusty winds given the shear/instability profiles and the
short-wave moving across northern WI.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016

Wednesday night through Saturday will be dry with short-wave
ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface. While Thursday
will be a bit cooler with highs mainly in the 70s, temperatures
will rise into the lower 80s to begin the weekend.

Thunderstorm chances return Saturday night into early next week as
ridge aloft flattens and a long wave trough moves across central
Canada. Short-waves along the southern periphery of this parent
low may trigger thunderstorms across the region. Temperatures will
generally be within a few degrees of mid June normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016

Line of thunderstorms across southeast MN and northeast IA will
continue to push east early this evening, resulting in MVFR
ceilings/visibility. Brief IFR conditions are also possible at
KRST. As the initial line moves across TAF airfields, winds will
shift to the west, gusting to 30 kts or more. Showers and
thunderstorms will move east of KRST by 14.03Z and KLSE by
14.05Z. Once storms move through, VFR conditions will return for
the remainder of the period. Light south-southeast wind will
gradually turn to the west-southwest by Wednesday afternoon,
gusting at times into the low 20 kt range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016

Numerous thunderstorms will move across the area this afternoon
and evening. High PWATs, deep warm cloud depths, weak deep layer
shear, and relatively wet soils from recent rainfall over the past
couple weeks will increase the threat for flash flooding along and
west of the Mississippi River through tonight. Expect most areas
to receive 1-2 inches of rainfall, but localized areas of 3-5
inches are possible with the strongest storms. Flash flooding,
flooding/ponding of water in urban areas, and river/stream rises
are all possible from this rainfall. As a result, a Flash Flood
Watch in effect until 1 am tonight for areas along and west of the
Mississippi River.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ032-033-041-
     053-054-061.

MN...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1102 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-041-
053-054-061-151615-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-LA CROSSE-VERNON-CRAWFORD-GRANT-
1102 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING...FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND
RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
1 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW STORMS FROM
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD BE STRONG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

WIZ017-029-034-042>044-055-151615-
TAYLOR-CLARK-JACKSON-MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS-RICHLAND-
1102 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN...BUT
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND RISES
ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.

IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW STORMS FROM
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD BE STRONG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

ROGERS

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