Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1137 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Impactful forecast over the next 6-12 hours, and as such much time
spent on this period. Early afternoon analysis places a surface warm
front mixed northward into central and northern WI, with a cold
front sliding through central MN at 18Z, associated with a ridge
running upper wave cutting across northern MN. Convection has been
bubbling along that cold front for a few hours now but continues to
expand as it intercepts a growing pool of 2500-3500 J/KG MUCAPE and
weak capping in place across much of the Upper Miss Valley. Per
current trends and well clustered suggestions from the majority of
CAM guidance, still expect current convection to grow in intensity
the next few hours, with the strongest deep shear relegated to
northern WI into central MN where some supercellular characteristics
are likely for a time, especially in the vicinity of the surface
warm front which looks to be just north and east of our local area.

However, with modest 0-3km westerly shear vectors of 20-30 knots and
pretty decent DCAPE profiles up to 1500 J/KG, envision storm
organization into more linear segments, with Corfidi vector analysis
suggesting any larger complex turning southeastward with time.
Activity may become enhanced along the leading outflow edge into
southeast MN with new cell growth into the very unstable and
weakly capped environment, with some worry that heavy rain
potential will increase for a time along the southern edge of the
line with such high PWAT values up to 1.75 inches and weak storm
motion/continued moisture transport over the boundary. Overall,
really like the look of the current SPC enhanced risk with the
biggest wind threat along/north of I-94 where the initial
convective line will be more aligned with the 0-3 km shear
vectors.

Still anticipate activity weakening into late evening/early
overnight with veering of the low level jet, with focus shifting to
tomorrow afternoon into northeast IA and far southwest WI. Pending
the position of the frontal boundary, there is some chance for
afternoon redevelopment in another higher CAPE/weak capping axis
over the far southern CWA, though shear looks rather paltry. Could
perhaps see a wind threat with DCAPE profiles. Should be another day
with hot temps and higher heat index values pushing 100 across the
south, but notably less humid northern areas with a drier airmass
rolling in from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Not much time spent on the outer periods, but the basic idea remains
for broad upper ridging to remain in place across much of the
central CONUS into the early work week period, with that pattern
becoming increasingly blocked up by midweek with strong closed lows
over both the northwest and northeast states. Yet another weakish
upper wave working over the ridge axis later Sunday into Sunday
evening should spark additional showers and storms across western MN
in the vicinity of another cold front dropping through that area,
with some of that activity likely to propagate eastward with time
into Sunday night and perhaps early Monday. Lots of questions
regarding how organized that activity might end up being, but with
another pool of strong instability in place, some stronger storms
aren't impossible, especially with hints of slightly better low
level shear in place.

Otherwise, there are some hints in the guidance that later Monday
into Tuesday may end up being mainly dry with low level ridging and
some drier air nosing in from Ontario, though there are questions
about just how far south said drier air will end up. Beyond that,
still good agreement for a closed low to meander through the blocked
up flow across the central Plains and toward our area by late week
with additional chances for rainfall and perhaps some cooler
temperatures pending cloud trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

All the convection has moved south of both airports with just mid
to high level clouds over the area. Expect these high clouds to
remain well into Saturday morning before scattering out. Despite
the rain this evening, do not think the skies will clear out in
time to allow for any radiational fog to form and the south winds
should provide enough mixing to prevent this as well. The weak
surface boundary that is across eastern Minnesota should slip
through both sites Saturday allowing the winds to come around to
the north/northeast but stay under 10 knots. Any convection that
forms along the front Saturday afternoon should be south of both
airports.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lawrence
LONG TERM...Lawrence
AVIATION...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ094>096-WIZ053>055-061-111200-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WHICH
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A
FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN COULD BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 90 TO 100 RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. USE CAUTION WITH
EXTENDED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW
STORMS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ANY FLOODING ARE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

MNZ079-086>088-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-111200-
WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-
JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS-
1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A
FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN COULD BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 90 TO 100 RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. USE CAUTION WITH
EXTENDED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW
STORMS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

WETENKAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
856 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

IAZ008-009-018-019-110330-
CHICKASAW-FLOYD-MITCHELL-HOWARD-
856 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CHICKASAW...
SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD...SOUTHERN MITCHELL AND FLOYD COUNTIES...

AT 856 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ST. ANSGAR TO NEAR FOREST CITY.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLES CITY...OSAGE...NEW HAMPTON...NORA SPRINGS...ROCKFORD...ELMA...
LAWLER...RUDD...FLOYD...IONIA...JERICO...ALTA VISTA AND MITCHELL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4335 9303 4336 9291 4320 9208 4305 9208
      4302 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 287DEG 24KT 4333 9290 4325 9369

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
912 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

IAZ030-WIZ061-110315-
CLAYTON-GRANT-
912 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CLAYTON
AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTIES...

AT 912 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF FENNIMORE TO NEAR
COLESBURG. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLATTEVILLE...LANCASTER...GUTTENBERG...CUBA CITY...HAZEL GREEN...
DICKEYVILLE...CASSVILLE...EDGEWOOD...PRESTON...GEORGETOWN AND
BEETOWN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4264 9071 4268 9090 4265 9090 4264 9140
      4268 9143 4303 9042 4251 9043 4251 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 320DEG 30KT 4295 9046 4266 9128

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1040 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

IAZ010-019-029-030-110445-
CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-WINNESHIEK-CLAYTON-
1040 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN CLAYTON...
FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN CHICKASAW AND SOUTHERN WINNESHIEK COUNTIES...

AT 1038 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SPILLVILLE TO NEAR NASHUA. MOVEMENT
WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND POSSIBLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. IF THE STORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OELWEIN...NEW HAMPTON...WEST UNION...ELKADER...POSTVILLE...NASHUA...
FAYETTE...STRAWBERRY POINT...CALMAR...FREDERICKSBURG AND OSSIAN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4264 9208 4291 9208 4291 9255 4294 9255
      4321 9210 4321 9208 4323 9208 4333 9191
      4313 9160 4308 9160 4308 9154 4287 9122
      4264 9160
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 318DEG 28KT 4324 9192 4288 9252

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
232 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

IAZ018-110800-
FLOYD-
232 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...FLASH FLOODING AND NICKEL SIZED-HAIL IN FLOYD COUNTY...

AT 227 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHARLES
CITY... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LIKELY PRODUCING
HAIL THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN...ADDING TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM THROUGH 3 AM.

MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN HOURS OF RAINFALL IN FLOYD COUNTY AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY NOW IS SEEING WATER OVER ROADWAYS
ACCORDING TO STORM SPOTTERS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OVER ROADS...IT CAN BE DEADLY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLES CITY...OAKWOOD...POWERSVILLE...ROSEVILLE...MIDWAY...BUNNS WOODS
COUNTY PARK...CARRVILLE...FLOYD CROSSING...COUNTY ROADS B 60 AND T 64...
HIGHWAY 14 AND COUNTY ROAD B 60 AND HOWARDS WOOD RECREATIONAL AREA.

LAT...LON 4309 9284 4309 9256 4291 9256 4291 9283
TIME...MOT...LOC 0727Z 337DEG 25KT 4300 9269

DAB