Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
212 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Satellite Water Vapor Imagery showing closed low vicinity of KFSD
with a trough extending southeast through central IA. Ascent/lift
ahead of this low combined with fairly humid airmass was leading to
scattered shower/thunderstorms across the area per latest radar
trends. So far...storms are behaving...but next couple of hours in
added heating and 0-1KM ML MUCAPE increasing into the 1500-2500J/KG
range may lead to a few severe storms...especially along/east of the
Mississippi River where better 0-3KM bulk shear in the 20-30KT range
will exist. Large hail and damaging wind would be the main threat...
but cannot rule out an isolated weaker tornado or two as well. As a
result...a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 9 PM this
evening for most of the forecast area except for Clark and Taylor
counties.

Look for the severe threat to subside later this evening as surface
heating wanes and main forcing shifts east. Otherwise...will likely
continue to see isolated showers through the overnight hours with
mid-level trough moving overhead.

Trough lingers overhead Sunday for more showers and late
morning/afternoon scattered thunderstorms. Look for the trough to
push east of the area Sunday night with weak ridging building in for
clearing skies.

Temperature-wise...plan on lows tonight and Sunday night in the
middle 50s/lower 60s and highs Sunday in the middle/upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Memorial Day through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Will see a chance of showers/thunderstorms mainly west of the
Mississippi River on Memorial Day in warm air advection/isentropic
lift ahead of low pressure moving into the Northern Plains.

Shower/thunderstorms become likely mainly in the Tuesday/Tuesday
night period as the area of low pressure and cold front push into
the area from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley region.

Looks like a bit of a cool down for latter next week into the
weekend with general troughing across the region. There will also be
a few showers chances as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Primary concern is watching thunderstorm potential this afternoon
and evening. Forecast guidance in good overall agreement showing
thunderstorms currently developing across south-central IA lifting
north and east through this evening, potentially impacting KRST
and KLSE between 28.21Z and 29.02Z. While VFR conditions will be
the general rule, MVFR (maybe IFR) conditions are possible with
stronger thunderstorms that move over TAF airfields. Once storms
move north and dissipate later this evening, will need to watch
the potential for more widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight. For
now, will lower ceilings into the MVFR range, but may need to
lower further as details emerge. Light southerly winds will shift
to the west-northwest and increase overnight into Saturday
morning.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-291915-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS-VERNON-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN UNTIL 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY STORMS
DURING THIS TIME ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE RISK FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE ENCOURAGED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

WIZ017-029-291915-
TAYLOR-CLARK-
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY STORMS
DURING THIS TIME ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE RISK FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS INTO MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY...ALTHOUGH REPORTS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

ROGERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

IAZ029-282100-
FAYETTE-
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY...

AT 328 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIRBANK...OR 10
MILES WEST OF OELWEIN...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MAYNARD AROUND 345 PM CDT.
  FAYETTE AROUND 350 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE WESTGATE...RANDALIA...
HIGHWAY 93 AND COUNTY V 68...HIGHWAY 93 AND COUNTY W 14 AND DONNAN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4264 9208 4291 9208 4291 9174 4264 9195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 197DEG 40KT 4264 9212

WETENKAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
333 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

WIZ061-282100-
GRANT-
333 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY...

AT 332 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRALIA...OR
NEAR DUBUQUE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DICKEYVILLE AROUND 355 PM CDT.
  PLATTEVILLE...CUBA CITY AND HAZEL GREEN AROUND 400 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE GEORGETOWN...ARTHUR...
POTOSI...LIVINGSTON AND ELLENBORO.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4254 9064 4259 9069 4263 9070 4266 9079
      4295 9043 4253 9042 4251 9048 4251 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 235DEG 35KT 4248 9082

WETENKAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
355 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

IAZ011-030-WIZ054-282130-
ALLAMAKEE-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-
355 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL CLAYTON...
SOUTHEASTERN ALLAMAKEE AND SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 355 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MONONA...OR 10
MILES WEST OF PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARQUETTE AND MCGREGOR AROUND 405 PM CDT.
  PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AROUND 410 PM CDT.
  LANSING AND HARPERS FERRY AROUND 430 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE EASTMAN...LUANA...
WATERVILLE...LYNXVILLE AND GIARD.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4305 9150 4336 9123 4319 9094 4293 9131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 219DEG 23KT 4305 9134

WETENKAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
402 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

WIZ061-282130-
GRANT-
402 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY...

AT 401 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DICKEYVILLE...OR
NEAR PLATTEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. A 40 MPH WIND GUST WAS REPORTED IN POTOSI AT 400 PM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CUBA CITY AND HAZEL GREEN AROUND 405 PM CDT.
  PLATTEVILLE AROUND 410 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE GEORGETOWN...ARTHUR...
POTOSI...LIVINGSTON AND ELLENBORO.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4254 9064 4259 9069 4263 9070 4266 9079
      4296 9043 4251 9042 4251 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 240DEG 34KT 4265 9055

WETENKAMP