Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

240 
WWUS43 KAPX 122039
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
339 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016


MIZ022-131000-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160212T2100Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.160213T0400Z-160213T1700Z/
OTSEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GAYLORD
339 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT 
  AND SATURDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST
BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU
MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$

MIZ028-122145-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160212T2100Z/
CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GRAYLING
339 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE
AREA.


$$

MIZ029-131000-
/O.EXA.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.160213T0400Z-160213T1700Z/
OSCODA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MIO
339 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT 
  AND SATURDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST
BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU
MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-131000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160213T1700Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
339 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF
  INTERSTATE 75.

* TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE
  EXPECTED IN WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES.

* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
  SNOW...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

* LOOK FOR PERIODS OF VERY POOR VISIBILITY.

* WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT...WITH THE
  COLDEST READINGS IN THE ST MARYS RIVER VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS...GO TO THE MDOT WEBSITE AT
MICHIGAN.GOV.

EXTREME WIND CHILLS MAY RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO
HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE
OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

$$

MIZ019>021-025>027-031>033-131000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160213T1700Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY
339 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4
  INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN LEELANAU...GRAND
  TRAVERSE...ANTRIM...AND KALKASKA COUNTIES.

* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
  SNOW...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. 

* LOOK FOR PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY AND SLIPPERY ROAD
  CONDITIONS.

$$

MIZ016>018-023-024-030-131000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.160213T0400Z-160213T1700Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
ATLANTA...ALPENA...HARRISVILLE
339 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON EST SATURDAY...

* WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT 
  AND SATURDAY MORNING. 

* THE COLDEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST...
  INCLUDING CHEBOYGAN AND ROGERS CITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST
BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU
MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$

JZ

805 
WWUS43 KAPX 130214
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
914 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

MIZ008-015-131015-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160213T1700Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
914 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY
  WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.

* TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE 
  EXPECTED IN WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES. 

* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* LOOK FOR PERIODS OF VERY POOR VISIBILITY.

* WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT...WITH THE 
  COLDEST READINGS IN THE ST MARYS RIVER VALLEY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS...GO TO THE MDOT WEBSITE AT
MICHIGAN.GOV.

EXTREME WIND CHILLS MAY RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO
HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE
OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

$$

MIZ019>021-025>027-031>033-131015-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160213T1700Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY
914 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 
  INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN LEELANAU...GRAND 
  TRAVERSE...ANTRIM...AND KALKASKA COUNTIES. 

* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* LOOK FOR PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY AND SLIPPERY ROAD 
  CONDITIONS. 

$$

MIZ016>018-022>024-029-030-131015-
/O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.160213T0400Z-160213T1700Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-
ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE
914 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT 
  AND SATURDAY MORNING. 

* THE COLDEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST...
   INCLUDING CHEBOYGAN AND ROGERS CITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST
BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU
MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$

472 
WWUS43 KAPX 130853
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

MIZ008-015-019-131700-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160213T1700Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160213T1700Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-CHARLEVOIX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
CHARLEVOIX
353 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO WILL BE FELT INTO THE
  MORNING.

* IT ONLY TAKES 20 TO 30 MINUTES OF UNPROTECTED EXPOSURE TO THESE
  TEMPERATURES TO GET FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. 
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

&&

$$

MIZ028-035-036-042-131700-
/O.EXA.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160213T1700Z/
CRAWFORD-OGEMAW-IOSCO-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAYLING...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...
STANDISH
353 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT 
  AND SATURDAY MORNING. 

* IT ONLY TAKES 30 MINUTES OF UNPROTECTED EXPOSURE TO THESE
  TEMPERATURES TO GET FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST
BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU
MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$

MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033-131700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160213T1700Z/
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
353 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE BETTER
  SNOWFALL WILL BE THIS MORNING. 

* TOTAL NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. THE
  GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF LEELANAU...ANTRIM...GRAND
  TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA COUNTIES.

* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
  DRIFTING SNOW.

* LOOK FOR PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY AND SLIPPERY ROAD 
  CONDITIONS. 

$$

MIZ016>018-022>024-029-030-131700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160213T1700Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-
ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE
353 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT
  AND SATURDAY MORNING.

* IT ONLY TAKES 20 TO 30 MINUTES OF UNPROTECTED EXPOSURE TO THESE
  TEMPERATURES TO GET FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST
BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU
MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$

SMD

133 
WWUS43 KAPX 131650
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1150 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033-131800-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-160213T1700Z/
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1150 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

$$

MIZ008-015>019-022>024-028>030-035-036-042-131800-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160213T1700Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-IOSCO-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...GAYLORD...
ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...STANDISH
1150 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

IMPACT WEATHER: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...POTENTIALLY POOR
VISIBILITY. TURNING EVEN COLDER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO ENGULF
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A CLOSED DEEP LOW ALOFT AT 488DM POSITIONED
OVER JAMES BAY. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS IN WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT DRAPED WESTWARD...AND A POCKET OF H8 ARCTIC AIR OF
-36C BEHIND IT. GREATEST DPVA AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HAS BEEN STRONG ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEAVY SNOWS WERE
POUNDING INTO SHORELINE AREAS OF ONTARIO NORTH OF WHITEFISH BAY.
THIS IS WHERE ONE MAJOR DOMINANT BAND HAS TAKEN OVER...SEEN EASILY
ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WHICH WAS ALSO SINKING SOUTH
TOWARD CHIPPEWA COUNTY. ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...SORT OF THE
CALM BEFORE THE STORM. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
ARE BEING ENHANCED BY SOME SMALL DEGREE THROUGH LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY
AND THE INITIAL DPVA FROM THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. WE CONTINUE TO BE
HINDERED BY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z APX SOUNDING...AS WELL
AS SHORT FETCHES FROM FROZEN GREEN BAY. OUR H8 TEMPS HAVE SEEN A
SLIGHT INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WEATHER EVOLUTION:

TROUGHING JUST GETS DEEPER THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE CLOSED LOW
SWINGS SE AND A SHORTWAVE PLOWS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BRINGS A BURST OF
HEAVIER SNOWS TO MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN. FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF MAX LIFT HITTING THE REAPPEARANCE OF
THE DGZ WILL QUICKLY VANISH WITH IT DIVING INTO THE GROUND UNDER
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...AS WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE NW AND WILL BE CONNECTED TO LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FLUFFIER FLAKES THIS MORNING-MIDDAY WITH THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SMALLER AND SMALLER WHILE WINDS ARE QUITE
GUSTY LATER TODAY AND AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THIS IS LIKELY GOING TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF PRETTY POOR VISIBILITY WITHIN WHAT SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE SNOW INTENSITIES (DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TOO ONCE
AGAIN CONTEND WITH). DESPITE ALL THAT...GOING TO NEED SOME CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES. FOR ONE...WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
IN CHIPPEWA COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING AS NW LAKE EFFECT
TAKES OVER. DESPITE IT IMPACTING MAINLY THE WESTERN AREAS OF
CHIP/MACK...CONDITIONS OUT THERE ARE GONNA BE BAD FOR AWHILE...AS
THE SAULT WILL HAVE LESS TIME/IMPACT FROM SNOW/WIND. NW LOWER SOUTH
OF M-68 WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLD FRONTAL SNOW BURST...AND THEN
LIKELY FAR NE LOWER WILL JOIN THE PARTY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL THE POOR VISIBILITY EXPECTATIONS. WILL BE EXTENDING THE
ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING (IF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF ONTARIO CAN
CONSOLIDATE MAX CONVERGENCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND IF GFS
SOUNDINGS ARE REMOTELY CORRECT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS TO 750MB). WE WILL NOT BE GETTING TO WIND CHILL CRITERIA
WITHIN LAKE EFFECT...BUT IN ALL OTHER AREAS...20-30 BELOW IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY. WILL BE LEANING TOWARD ISSUING THIS ADVISORY
AS WELL. LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...TO 10-15
BELOW ZERO IN PARTS OF EASTERN CHIP/MACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: BRUTALLY COLD WITH MORE ACCUMULATING
LAKE SNOWS FOR SATURDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SIMPLY NO STOPPING NOW MUCH
ADVERTISED POLAR PLUNGE DESCENDING INTO THE LAKES...WITH WELL DEFINED
ARCTIC WAVE DIVING INTO ONTARIO PER EARLY MORNING NOAM WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. VERY IMPRESSIVE CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS EVIDENT BY WIDESPREAD SUB -20 DEGF READINGS IN NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL MANITOBA. THANK GOODNESS THIS AIR WILL
MODIFY SOME...AND MAIN CORE OF REALLY COLD ANOMALIES DOES PASS JUST
TO OUR EAST. STILL...SATURDAY IS NO DOUBT SHAPING UP TO THE COLDEST
DAY YET THIS WINTER SEASON...AND WILL RIVAL SOME OF THE RECORD COLD
DAYS EXPERIENCED JUST LAST FEBRUARY. NOW...NOT ALL IS DOOM AND
GLOOM...AS UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY...THIS COLD SHOT WILL BE A FLEETING
ONE...WITH RAPID BREAKDOWN OF CURRENT AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALLOWING
SUBSTANTIAL MODERATION HEADING INTO AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH
SUNDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY. LAKE SNOW TRENDS AND
AMOUNTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: DEALING WITH TEMPERATURES FIRST...POLAR PLUNGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY NEGATIVE MID AND
UPPER 20C H8 TEMPERATURES. MORNING WILL START OUT JUST DOWNRIGHT
BRUTAL...WITH WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.
GOOD NEWS IS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY GUSTY...ALTHOUGH WHAT
WIND THERE IS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COLDER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES! TEMPERATURE WILL STRUGGLE TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. MARGINALLY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AVERAGING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. A TOUGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AS APEX OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
CENTER OVERHEAD QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE MOVING SLIGHTLY
EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT/CALM AND
OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR INTERIOR AREAS TO CLEAR OUT FOR A TIME.
WOULD THINK TEMPERATURES WOULD JUST TANK IN SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT...YET INTERESTINGLY...OVERALL GUIDANCE NUMBERS DO NOT
REFLECT THIS (OUTSIDE THE MUCH COLDER ECMWF NUMBERS). WILL
DEFINITELY TREND COLDER THAN MOST PROGS SUGGEST...AND IF CLEAR
SKIES/CALM WINDS SET UP FOR ANY APPRECIABLE LENGTH OF TIME...COULD
EASILY SEE INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN DROP INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO.

WAA ADVECTION DEVELOPS QUICKLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS WELL
OFF TO THE EAST. SIMPLE BREADTH OF COLD TO BE MODIFIED WILL STILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS
ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPPER TEENS FOR HIGHS. CURRENT THINKING IS
SUNDAY NIGHT READINGS WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW: PURE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITHIN LOCKED IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WIND ENVIRONMENT. THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY FOR BETTER SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL....WITH LITTLE TO NOTHING FALLING FURTHER INLAND. NOW...
DESPITE PHENOMENAL WATER/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...DEFINITELY NOT
EXPECTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND GIVEN STEADILY
FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT DGZ. SIMPLE
PERSISTENCE AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR PRECONDITIONING WILL
BRING A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW TO FAVORED AREAS. OF COURSE...
EXPECTED TALCUM-POWDER LIKE SNOW WILL BE EXCELLENT AT REDUCING
VISIBILITY...AND WOULD EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS UNDER MORE ORGANIZED BANDING STRUCTURES. LAKE SNOW
PARAMETERS REALLY BEGIN TO TANK OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH STILL
FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND INCREASINGLY LIGHT WIND FIELDS (LAND
BREEZE DOMINATE BY EARLY MORNING). FOCUS FOR LAKE SNOWS SHOULD TREND
MUCH CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORES...AND BE OF A MUCH LIGHTER INTENSITY.

LOOKS LIKE A NICE BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER SUNDAY...WITH STILL
SOME SUPPORT FOR VERY LIGHT WAA DRIVEN SNOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WAVE PUSHES OVERHEAD (ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING AND
OVERHEAD VERY DRY AIRMASS TO START SURE DOES GIVE ONE PAUSE ON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW WILL REACH THE SURFACE).

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

JUST A TON OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
ANY SYSTEMS DURING THIS PERIOD. DEFINITELY NOT SOLD ON ANY
SPECIFIC PIECE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH NEW TRENDS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT EASTERN STORM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A SHOT
OF SOME MUCH COLDER AIR DROPPING INTO OUR AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE.
REALLY STARTING TO BELIEVE THIS MAY BE A RELATIVELY VERY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. OF COURSE...GIVEN ONGOING GUIDANCE STRUGGLES AND COMPLETE
LACK OF ANY CONTINUITY...CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH WILL FEATURE
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. GUESS THIS IS AS GOOD A
STARTING POINT AS ANY...ALTHOUGH LIKE EARLIER MENTIONED... WOULD
NOT AT ALL BE SURPRISED IF THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A SPIKE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT THEN SHOVES SOUTH THROUGH NRN LOWER BY LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. MUCH
COLDER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WHILE WINDS START TO SET UP
SHOP OUT OF THE NW...WITH A GOOD MOISTURE TAP FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL THEN IMPACT ALL AIRPORTS...BUT FOCUSES MORE
ON TVC. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME EVEN
MORE GUSTY WITH BLOWING SNOW AN ISSUE ALL DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. SNOWFALL FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY WILL DISPLAY
FLUFFIER FLAKES AND A QUICK 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH COLDER AND
COLDER AIR BRINGING SMALLER AND SMALLER FLAKE SIZES...AND
VISIBILITY ISSUES IN CONTINUED SLOWING SNOW. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE
A PERIOD OF VERTICAL VISIBILITY UNDER 2KFT. TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT...UP TO AN INCH AT APN...1-2 INCHES AROUND PLN...AND 2-5
MBL/TVC.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL
TODAY...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GALES THROUGH THIS EVENING IN MOST OF
THE NEARSHORES SURROUNDING NRN LOWER. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE WINDS DIE OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN OVERHEAD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ019>021-
     025>027-031>033.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ022-
     028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ008-015.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ349.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-346.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...DICKSON
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...DICKSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
322 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-130830-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
322 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT TODAY..WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY. OTHER AREAS WILL FEEL
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. SEE LATEST WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEE ONGOING
ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS.

BITTERLY COLD AIR AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMMING ON
AREA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT ANY TIME.
REPORTS MAY BE MADE IN ANY OF THESE THREE WAYS:

ONLINE:   WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGAYLORD

TWITTER:  TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

SMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY SNOW       4 NW BAY MILLS          46.48N 84.63W
02/12/2016  M4.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC

            6 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM.

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM