Small Craft Advisory 98, NWS Gaylord, MI

740 
WHUS73 KAPX 240306
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1106 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-241115-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-161025T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1106 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

730 
WHUS73 KAPX 240750
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
350 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-241600-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-161025T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
350 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

311 
WHUS73 KAPX 241352
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
952 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-242200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-161025T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
952 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

291 
WHUS73 KAPX 241938
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
338 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

LHZ345-346-LSZ321-322-250345-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-161025T0600Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
338 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347>349-250345-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-161025T1200Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI-
338 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-250000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-161025T0000Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
338 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

107 
WHUS73 KAPX 250245
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1045 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

LMZ323-342-344-250600-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.161025T0245Z-161025T0600Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
1045 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-251045-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-161025T1200Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1045 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-346-LSZ322-250600-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-161025T0600Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1045 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347>349-251045-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-161025T1200Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI-
1045 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

701 
WHUS73 KAPX 250824
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
424 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016

LHZ347>349-LSZ321-250930-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-161025T1200Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
424 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$


WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
329 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Short wave has reached far Western Upper Michigan this afternoon...
with the surface reflection moving out of Wisconsin and into Lake
Michigan. Rain showers have significantly increased in both areal
coverage and intensity in response to increasing upper level
divergence and low level convergence in the vcnty of deeper moisture
associated with the wave. Mid level clouds/radar returns have
steadily increased across Eastern Upper Michigan throughout the
day...and some light rain is finally reaching the ground around
ERY and CIU. Otherwise...our CWA remains largely dry at
attm...with temps now in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees thanks
to weak WAA ahead of the wave.

Increasing POPs from NW to SE will be the rule as we head thru the
rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Upper level wave
will slide thru the rest of Upper Michigan late this afternoon and
thru Lower Michigan this evening...as the surface low tracks thru
Southern Lower Michigan. Some lake enhancement is expected thru this
evening as marginal delta t's hold around 11 C. A more pure lake
effect rain shower scenario will set up late tonight into Monday as
low level CAA increases over-lake instability in the wake of the
short wave and surface low. At this point...temps should remain warm
enough for precip to remain all liquid thru the night and on Monday.

With CAA commencing this evening...overnight lows will cool into the
upper 30s and lower 40s with diurnal cooling and CAA tempered by the
maintenance of BKN/OVC low CIGS. High temps on Monday will only warm
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

High Impact Weather: Rain moving into the region on Wednesday,
possibly freezing?

(10/25)Monday night...rain showers off of Lakes Superior and
Michigan will be the main concern initially, with the most likely
rain in E Upper with the delta Ts around 20c from the 850 mb
temperatures around -5c and the water temperatures around 16c in N
Lake Michigan, and around 13c in Lake Superior. While the winds are
good through most of the night, the whole system is moving east,
which is actually doing a net warm advection at 850 mb winds turning
more north and the RH falling to around 30%. So will be expecting
the rain to begin to taper off by the morning.

(10/26)Tuesday...The high builds into the region moves through by
the afternoon, this will keep us in a relatively dry easterly flow
through the night as well.

To set up the Wednesday forecast, the sfc low associated with the
strong 500 mb shortwave moving from the N Plains and into the Upper
Great Lakes is being held off from spreading the moisture in N Lower
through the night from the dry easterly flow as the baroclinic zone
begins to sharpen up in the mid-Mississippi Valley.

(10/27)Wednesday...Models are insisting that the rain will hold off
until after 15z in the sw counties as the 700-500 mb rh max and the
850 mb rh coincide with the warm advection at the sfc and 850 mb.
Looks like the rain will just be in the area south and west of a
line from FKS to CAD by 18z. Because the rain doesn't start until
late, don't think that the rain starts as anything freezing as the
sfc temperatures should be above freezing by 15z. Models are even
slower at spreading this rain over the region from the dry easterly
flow undercutting the moisture looking at the soundings. So will
have E Upper and most of NE Lower keeping out of the rain for the
day.

JSL

Primary concern for the extended period remains the Wednesday night
through Thursday system. Still uncertainty with exact timing and
track of the system. A more southerly track looks to be the most
likely, which would keep heavier rains south of us. But it is close
enough that a slight northward shift could bring the heavier precip
to us. Timing will also be an issue with p-type concerns, generally
over E.U.P. and higher elevation areas as temperatures could support
some mix of snow at the onset, with a switch to all liquid by the
afternoon. There are other chances for precip through the period
with another synoptic system and some lake effect possibilities.

Mayhew

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Low VFR/MVFR cigs will gradually develop from NW to SE across
Northern Lower Michigan this afternoon and tonight as a potent
short wave and surface response slides thru Michigan. Scattered
rain showers will develop in response to increasing lift and
moisture associated with this wave. Modest over-lake instability
will lend some support to precip production. Precipitation will
evolve into a more pure lake effect rain shower scenario later
tonight into Monday thanks to CAA in the wake of the departing
wave. Light winds this afternoon will shift to the NW later this
afternoon and evening and will begin to strengthen to around 10
kts behind the wave...with higher gusts expected by Monday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Winds and waves will strengthen to SCA criteria this evening and
will remain so thru Monday as NW winds increase in the wake of a
short wave and surface response sliding thru Michigan. Scattered
rain showers will increase in areal coverage late this afternoon and
evening as the wave moves thru our region. Precip will evolve into a
more pure lake effect nature overnight and into Monday thanks to CAA
and NW winds in the wake of the wave and surface low.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...JSL/Mayhew
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
320 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-241200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
320 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

JZ