Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
614 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Monday. Although isolated convection will be possible across the
Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles this evening through about 03Z
to 05Z Sunday...confidence too low to mention at either the Dalhart
or Guymon TAF sites at this time. Will update if needed. Easterly
winds at the Guymon TAF site will become southeast to south through
the TAF forecast period. Otherwise...mainly southerly winds expected
at the three TAF sites 5 to 15 knots between 00Z and 14Z Sunday...and
then 10 to 20 knots between 14Z Sunday and 00Z Monday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water Vapor imagery shows upper ridge staying nearly stationary over
TX with the remnants of last nights disturbance moving into
eastern OK/KS. Down at the surface...winds are generally out of
the southeast at around 10kts helping to increase dew points with
many stations coming in the mid to high 60s along and east of a
line from Boise City to Clarendon. Temperatures on the other hand
have struggled to make it out of 80s...especially across northern
zones as mid level clouds have persisted. A subtle surface
boundary is currently draped along or just south of I-40 per
mesoscale analysis of 925mb baroclinicity and radar returns. This
feature is very shallow but may be enough to initiate a storm or
two with daytime insolation late this afternoon. HRRR runs have
shown short lived convection initiating along this boundary while
other CAMs have stayed dry. Dry mid-level air will certainly be a
limiting factor with entrainment...so have kept pops out for now
along this boundary. Otherwise...the best chance of convection
will be up in the northwest TX panhandle and OK Panhandle as
monsoonal flow helps moisten the mid levels a bit more up there
along the lee trough. Severe weather is unlikely...but areas along
our far north and northwestern zones will have a better chance of
seeing a strong storm with MLCAPE values expected to be anywhere
from 1500-2500 J/kg. Shear will be the limiting factor as it
always is under high pressure. Effective bulk shear may approach
30kts with better veering profiles further north. If a storm can
successfully ingest max helicity it may briefly produce quarter
size hail. Of course, strong gusty winds are possible with just
about any storm this time of year with steep low-mid level lapse
rates.

For Sunday... another disturbance will move around ridge on
monsoonal flow. This one is progged to be a bit further south and
should result in another round of isolated to scattered storms with
the best chance across our northwestern zones. The ridge axis begins
slowly shifting eastward bit by bit over next week. Temperatures
will stay above average and isolated to scattered storms can be
expected just about each day with best chances along western zones
as weak disturbances come up on monsoonal flow. Model are then
hinting at a more pronounced upper trough which should help break
down the ridge a bit and allow a shortwave and surface cold front to
move through late week into next weekend. There is still a lot of
uncertainty on timing with ECMWF bringing front in faster than the
GFS. Rain chances will be increasing as better confidence in the
timing and location of this front is achieved. Depending on the
southern extent of this front...our above average temperatures
should drop back to around average going into next week across
most of the area.

Ward

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
318 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-070830-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
318 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE OKLAHOMA AND
FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEFLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS
AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS WILL LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE MOST DAYS.
AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
748 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

OKZ001-070145-
CIMARRON OK-
748 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CIMARRON COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 747 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF KENTON...OR 28 MILES NORTH OF CLAYTON...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACK MESA PARK AND KENTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10231 3676 10229 3675 10300 3695 10300
      3700 10262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 265DEG 31KT 3685 10306

SCHNEIDER