Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
641 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms should continue to move away from the AMA TAF site, so
have not mentioned any TSRA there for tonight. DHT may have a chance
of TSRA from the activity moving in from New Mexico, so have added a
tempo group there for later this evening. Think the TSRA will stay
north and west of the GUY TAF site, so have left the mention of TSRA
out of there. Some low clouds in the MVFR range may move int the GUY
TAF site after midnight, so have a period for them. Otherwise, skies
should remain VFR and winds will remain light from the east and
southeast tonight turning more to the south during the day on
Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 434 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A couple of boundaries will likely produce some showers and
thunderstorms tonight. An old outflow boundary is moving north across
the southern Texas Panhandle. Visible satellite shows some developing
thunderstorms along this boundary. A cold front lies generally along
or just north of the Canadian River. This front may also spark some
showers and thunderstorms. The panhandles remain under a moist
subtropical plume in the upper levels and thunderstorms over eastern
New Mexico may move across northwest sections in the southwest flow
aloft. So have put the highest pops across the northwest as this area
will be closest to the better moisture.

By Saturday at 12Z much of the area looks to be under a ridge of
high pressure that extends from eastern New Mexico through portions
of central Arkansas and Louisiana. This will likely remain the trend
through the weekend until early next week when the upper level ridge
breaks down some and H5 heights lower in the region, allowing for
continued relatively weak flow aloft. Somewhat drier air will move
into the area, especially in the western and central portions of the
Combined Panhandles on Saturday, limiting our precipitation
potential through the weekend.

Moisture in the mid levels will return on Monday and persist through
the rest of the week and aid in the formation of convection. Although
H5 flow will be weak, mid level flow will be a bit stronger with
values around 40 KTS overnight as the low level jet ramps up. This,
along with diurnal heating will allow for low end precipitation
potential to be included each day next week. The best chance for rain
and organized convection will be at the end of the forecast period
when a front is expected to move through the area. However, the
ECMWF and GFS are in disagreement on the placement and timing of the
front as the ECMWF wants to bring the feature through the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles during the day on Friday, and the GFS moves the
front through during the day on Saturday. For now have decided to go
with a blend of the two and included widespread rain chances on
Friday morning and increasing through the evening and overnight
hours. Overall, temperatures will stay somewhat consistent with highs
in the mid to upper 90s with some places in the far southeast getting
closer 100 degrees.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

15/1

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
441 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-060945-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
441 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS IN THE AREA MAY PULSE UP AND
BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG PRODUCING VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLES
THIS WEEKEND AND WILL RETURN TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
SOME STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

TXZ018-060030-
ARMSTRONG TX-
649 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 649 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLAUDE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
ARMSTRONG COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 10157 3510 10140 3490 10130 3487 10148
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 342DEG 7KT 3498 10144

LFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
705 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

TXZ014-060045-
GRAY TX-
705 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GRAY COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

AT 705 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LEFORS...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAMPA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAMPA AND LEFORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 10074 3546 10107 3562 10096 3562 10080
      3549 10062
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 121DEG 9KT 3546 10076

LFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
721 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

TXZ008-013-060100-
CARSON TX-HUTCHINSON TX-
721 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CARSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 721 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF SKELLYTOWN...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BORGER...MOVING
NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BORGER AND SKELLYTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 10146 3585 10141 3581 10109 3579 10109
      3543 10118
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 188DEG 16KT 3556 10130

LFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
745 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

TXZ008-009-013-014-060130-
ROBERTS TX-GRAY TX-CARSON TX-HUTCHINSON TX-
745 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CARSON...
SOUTHWESTERN ROBERTS...NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND SOUTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 744 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KINGSMILL...OR 4 MILES WEST OF PAMPA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAMPA...CODMAN AND KINGSMILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 10095 3547 10120 3573 10111 3564 10075
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 207DEG 5KT 3553 10104

LFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
913 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

OKZ001-TXZ001-060315-
CIMARRON OK-DALLAM TX-
913 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CIMARRON AND DALLAM COUNTIES
UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 912 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES SOUTH OF KIM TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
SENECA TO 11 MILES WEST OF SEDAN. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOISE CITY...TEXLINE...KEYES...BLACK MESA PARK...WARE...FELT...
KENTON AND WHEELESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10231 3675 10216 3612 10242 3605 10298
      3606 10304 3650 10304 3650 10300 3700 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 256DEG 38KT 3700 10337 3658 10311 3615 10334

LFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1014 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

OKZ001-002-TXZ001-002-060415-
CIMARRON OK-TEXAS OK-DALLAM TX-SHERMAN TX-
1014 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CIMARRON...WESTERN TEXAS...DALLAM
AND NORTHERN SHERMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1013 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAMPO TO NEAR BOISE
CITY TO 6 MILES NORTH OF SEDAN. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STRATFORD...BOISE CITY...KEYES...GRIGGS...WARE...EVA...FELT...
TEXHOMA AND STURGIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10172 3643 10169 3622 10241 3606 10304
      3635 10304 3671 10264 3700 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 259DEG 23KT 3718 10267 3673 10255 3624 10312

LFM