Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
656 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.Aviation...
For the 00Z TAFS, scattered showers and thunderstorms will move east
and southeast across much of the OK and TX Panhandles this evening
and tonight as an upper level storm system zips across the region.
One or more TAF sites will likely be impacted by the showers and
storms, and have included a mention at all terminal sites. Gusty
winds will develop for a few to several hours behind a secondary
cold front which will push through the region this evening and
tonight as well.

Andrade

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 423 PM CDT WED May 11 2016/

Updated long term portion of discussion...

Short Term (Tonight through Thursday night)...

An upper shortwave trough over Utah and Colorado is moving southeast
this afternoon into Arizona and New Mexico. South of the trough a
speed max in the subtropical jet is moving across central Arizona
and New Mexico. This morning's upper air observations and GFS/NAM
700mb projections show an increase in mid and lower level moisture
ahead of this trough and a few showers appear to be sparking over
northern New Mexico and southeast Colorado.

Surface ridging will increase in western Kansas through the rest of
the afternoon and tonight which will send a weak front through the
area. This "front" will largely just be an increase in north to
northeasterly winds with very little change in airmass. Above the
weak frontal slope, some elevated instability will be present
associated with the increased moisture around 700mb and showers and
storms that get started over New Mexico stand a good chance of
persisting as they move into the region tonight. The best large scale
lift and mid to lower level convergence and moisture looks to be over
the northern half of the region, closer to the Oklahoma Panhandle and
continued the highest rain chances there. Steepening mid level lapse
rates amid favorable shear profiles present a marginal risk for hail
in thunderstorms. NAM MUCAPE projections are running between about
1,500 and 2,000 j/kg, however these may be a bit on the high side,
and with only marginal convergence in the elevated unstable layer
believe ramping up severe weather wording in the HWO and other
products is unnecessary for now. The highest chances for small to
possibly marginally severe hail would be in the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper trough axis passes by Thursday morning with broad surface
ridging shifting southeast into Oklahoma. Winds should shift to the
east with speeds falling into the 8 to 10 mph range through most of
the day Thursday with skies clearing up and temperatures rising into
the mid 70s. Light winds slowly shift to the south Thursday night
amid clear skies with lows dropping into the upper 40s north, and
lower 50s south.

JGG/BRB

Long Term...Friday through Wednesday

Upper level ridge builds across the southwest on Friday. As
northwesterly flow develops, thunderstorm chances return to the
Panhandles Friday night. As shortwave energy deamplifies the ridge Friday
night, thunderstorm chances return to the Panhandles. A few factors
could come into play including a cold front moving southward through
the Plains during the day. Dewpoints will begin climbing into the mid
50s, possibly upper 50s across the far southeastern Panhandle as
moisture flows into Texas off of the Gulf. As a result, PWAT values
begin increasing above an inch, and closer to 1.25 inches as well so
have upped wording to moderate rain and went with higher than usual
QPF values for Friday night's weather. SBCAPE values around 500 to
1000 J/kg and bulk shear values around 30kts will support
thunderstorms providing the timing all works out with lift via the
shortwave and/or the front.

Overall precip chances will continue through the weekend and into the
first part of the workweek, but get a little muddy beyond the
initial wave Friday night. Heights fall as the ridge continues to
deamplify and various shortwaves cross the area. The cold front looks
to remain across the region as well. Possibility for moderate or
heavy rain with showers/thunderstorms will start tapering off
Sunday and Monday as the front pushes further south and suppresses
moisture convergence more toward the western Panhandles. Look for
further refinement in the timing of more likely pops closer to the
weekend.

Beyond Monday, upper level flow shifts southwesterly as a trough
works its way through the Intermountain West. Have kept some slight
chance pops for now, but precip chances may come to an end Monday and
Tuesday before another upper level low could move into the Four
Corners region. Models have not come into any sort of agreement on
this feature as of yet.

Elsenheimer

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-120845-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
345 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES AND WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BORGER                  35.66N 101.40W
05/11/2016                   HUTCHINSON         TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO WATER RESCUES ON HIGHWAY 136 AND FLORIDA STREET.
            MANY RESIDENTIAL STREETS ARE FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600267

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             8 W CLAUDE              35.11N 101.50W
05/11/2016  M1.00 INCH       ARMSTRONG          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600268

EA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1101 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLAUDE                  35.11N 101.36W
05/11/2016  E70 MPH          ARMSTRONG          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1600269

EA

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>