Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
454 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON TODAY'S FORECAST...

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO BY TUESDAY. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN CONCENTRATED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR SUNDAY. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS
ADDITIONAL DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES BY TOMORROW MORNING...BRING MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR
BEHIND IT. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. DO NOT THINK A
FROST ADVISORY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT WILL PASS ALONG TO THE NEXT SHIFT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LOW
AND KEEP A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WED. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY REFINE THE
PRECIP FORECAST EACH DAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE PUT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS AND TIMES WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT BEST. REINFORCING COLD
AIR WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND AXIS...SO FOR NOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGING LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
MORE ESTABLISHED BY THE WEEKEND SO HAVE NO POPS FOR NOW.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL GO INTO EFFECT
TONIGHT AT 7PM CDT FOR THE FAR EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WHILE SOME AREAS JUST WEST OF THE WATCH MAY
PICK UP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EMBEDDED WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERN
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
..MORE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST INVOLVING THE APPROACHING UPR
LOW AND A THIN RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. A NARROW LINE OF STORMS HAS FORMED FROM ROUGHLY
STRATFORD ALL THE WAY DOWN TO AROUND BUSHLAND ALONG A SFC TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SFC TROUGH WILL TAKE ON
DRYLINE CHARACTERISTICS SHORTLY DUE IN PART TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND MIXING WEST OF THE TROUGH. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE NEARLY
STATIONARY DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN, LIKELY JUST WEST OF A CANYON TO
DUMAS LINE. A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INTERSECT THE
DRYLINE WEST OF DUMAS EARLY THIS EVENING.

EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT, A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. VIS SAT
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ERODING EAST OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR HWY 70
FROM PAMPA TO PERRYTON. IN THIS AREA, TEMPS REACHING THE MID 60S WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE BY AROUND 21Z.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 55-65KTS SHOULD LEND THEMSELVES NICELY TO
ORGANIZED STORM ROTATION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE SHEAR.

THINKING IS THAT CURRENT STORMS WILL BECOME MORE INTENSE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY INCREASES, AND MORE STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
IN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE SHARPENING DRYLINE. EVEN
THOUGH THE CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE SVR CONDITIONS IS NARROW, STORM
RESIDENCE TIME IN THIS NARROW AREA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS GIVEN NNE STORM MOTIONS.

THE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL, FLASH FLOODING,
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND MAYBE TO A LESSER DEGREE STRONG WINDS.  LOW
LEVEL SRH WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AND STORMS WILL
HAVE LESS OF A TENDENCY TO BE DISCRETE THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY, WHICH
SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER, WITH T/TD SPREADS
STRUGGLING TO BREACH 10F, LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE VERY LOW TODAY, LEAVING
US OPEN TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN THE RIGHT CIRCUMSTANCE.
STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE GREATLY TO STAY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EAST
OF HWY 70, WHERE LOW CLOUDS BENEATH WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN A LESS DESIRABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY EVOLVE GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS, BUT A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM CLOUD LAYER AND APPROACHING DRY
MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP THIS THREAT FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS SUCH AS TEXAS CO, OK, WHERE FLOODING WAS
ALREADY ONGOING THIS MORNING AND MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED.

IN SUMMARY...EXPECT INTENSIFICATION OF CURRENT CONVECTION AND NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERE
STORMS AND SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...WHEELER.

OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER.

&&

18/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
331 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-170845-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
331 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

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