Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
637 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.Aviation...
Several boundaries around the area could spark additional showers
and thunderstorms this evening. But think the best chance of rain may
develop near the DHT and GUY TAF sites after midnight in association
with a cold front. So have mentioned a tempo group for these sites.
Will leave AMA out of the rain for this forecast. North winds will
prevail at DHT and GUY...first behind a trough and then behind the
cold front. North winds should develop at AMA around 11Z. VFR
conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 521 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016/

Discussion...
For this evening and tonight, a well defined upper level shortwave
trof will move across the srn high plains, accompanied by isolated
to scattered showers and tstms. Based on projected path of this
shortwave trof, the OK Panhandle will have the greatest threat for
precipitation, followed by nrn TX Panhandle, with the srn TX
Panhandle having the lowest threat. Pop structure was fashioned in
this manner. Also went with areal qualifiers for tonight. The
strongest storms will pose a marginal svr threat this evening and
would not be surprised to see a couple to a few storms becoming
strong to perhaps marginally svr. In addition, a weak cold front will
move across the TX and OK Panhandles tonight and could serve as an
additional low level lifting mechanism to assist in tstm development.

On Sunday, the upper level shortwave trof will be movg east of the
area, with much less in the way of tstm activity. Pops have been
restricted to far sern TX Panhandle and far nwrn zones.

Then from next Monday through Saturday, a somewhat dirty upper level
ridge of high pressure will prevail across much of the srn states.
This particular upper level ridge of high pressure will likely not be
strong enuf to completely suppress tstm development durg this time
period. Have incorporated slgt chc pops across parts of the fcst area
to account for the low threat of tstm development. Well above normal
temperatures including some triple digit values are forecast to
return to the area by Tuesday and lasting at least a few days after.

Andrade

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

15/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
553 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-031100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
553 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
230 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

OKZ001-022000-
CIMARRON OK-
230 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CIMARRON COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 230 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF BOISE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
CIMARRON COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10230 3686 10219 3670 10259 3685 10272
      3700 10250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 236DEG 15KT 3682 10258

BIEDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

OKZ001-002-022115-
CIMARRON OK-TEXAS OK-
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CIMARRON AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 315 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTH OF KEYES...OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOISE CITY...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KEYES...HOUGH...EVA AND STURGIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 10161 3677 10230 3694 10237 3700 10220
      3700 10130
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 252DEG 22KT 3688 10225

LG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
449 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

TXZ015-022245-
WHEELER TX-
449 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHEELER COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

AT 449 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LELA...OR 6 MILES WEST OF SHAMROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHAMROCK...WHEELER...LELA...TWITTY AND ALLISON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 10040 3530 10051 3562 10012 3562 10000
      3518 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 228DEG 20KT 3519 10036

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

OKZ002-003-030115-
BEAVER OK-TEXAS OK-
642 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TEXAS AND BEAVER COUNTIES
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 641 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORGAN TO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HARDESTY. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAVER...FORGAN...HARDESTY...GATE...KNOWLES...ELMWOOD...
BRYANS CORNER...MOCANE...TURPIN...ADAMS...FLORIS...BALKO...
BOYD AND BAKER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 10000 3650 10051 3650 10147 3700 10100
      3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 240DEG 45KT 3696 10060 3656 10110

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
713 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

OKZ002-003-TXZ002>004-030100-
BEAVER OK-TEXAS OK-HANSFORD TX-OCHILTREE TX-SHERMAN TX-
713 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...BEAVER...
EAST CENTRAL SHERMAN...NORTHERN OCHILTREE AND HANSFORD COUNTIES UNTIL
800 PM CDT...

AT 712 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FORGAN TO 3 MILES WEST OF GRUVER. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PERRYTON...SPEARMAN...BEAVER...GRUVER...FORGAN...HARDESTY...GATE...
KNOWLES...ELMWOOD...BRYANS CORNER...MOCANE...TURPIN...ADAMS...WAKA...
FLORIS...BALKO...FARNSWORTH AND BOYD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 10000 3650 10046 3650 10054 3645 10055
      3618 10101 3616 10177 3700 10083 3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 250DEG 34KT 3692 10050 3625 10148

LG