Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

883 
WWUS84 KAMA 242112
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
312 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016

OKZ001-002-TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-250000-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160125T0000Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-
OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-
312 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN OKLAHOMA...CIMARRON AND TEXAS. IN TEXAS... 
  DALLAM...SHERMAN...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...MOORE...HUTCHINSON... 
  OLDHAM...POTTER...CARSON...DEAF SMITH...RANDALL AND ARMSTRONG.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 
  10 AND 15 PERCENT.

* TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE
  UNTIL AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD. AVOID
ACTIVITIES THAT PROMOTE OPEN FLAMES AND SPARKS.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AMA (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1039 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
THEY WILL START TO VEER AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016/

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER SOME OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH EDGES
INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA. WINDS WILL THEN BACK SOME AT DHT AND
AMA...WHILE GUY STAYS MORE VEERED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S WERE PRESENT WERE STRATUS LINGERED
THE LONGEST THIS MORNING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY. ON THE LARGE SCALE...BROAD RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. A TROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE TO OUR WEST AND WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA TOMORROW. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEEP
MIXING/DRYING WILL CAUSE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH
ONE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING INCREASING CIRRUS AS CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW STRENGTHENS. LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S WILL BE REACHED
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. THE RECORD HIGH AT AMARILLO FOR
JANUARY 24TH IS 79 SET IN 1970...78 AT BORGER SET IN 1950...AND 77
AT DALHART SET IN 1970.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHERE DEEPEST SATURATION OCCURS BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET
BUT WET BULB PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW ONCE LOW/MID LEVELS SATURATE.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO TRY AND CAPTURE
TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF WET BULBING DURING THE EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA BRINGING LOW PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
AMOUNTS FROM BOTH THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT EVENTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH UNDER ONE INCH ACCUMULATION. TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A TREND TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA IS LIKELY TO BE MET ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A 50-60 KNOT 500 MB
SPEED MAX WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH DOWNSLOPE/WARMING LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING WITH DEEP MIXING. ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 10-15 PERCENT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF AROUND 20-25 MPH FOR AT LEAST
A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 20
PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN FURTHER WEST...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES ARE WITH SPATIAL DETAILS. THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS
PEAKING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESSHOLDS IN THE WEST...BUT NOT ON HOW FAR
EAST THE MORE MARGINAL CRITICAL VALUES WILL JUXTAPOSE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL.

OK...NONE.

&&

15/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
410 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-241015-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
410 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO
25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY STILL EXIST IN THESE AREAS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AREA FIRE MANAGERS
AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.