Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
212 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS, INCLUDING A SPECIAL 18Z KAMA SOUNDING
REVEAL A POTENTIALLY CONCERNING PICTURE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AROUND THE PANHANDLES.

SYNOPTICALLY: A LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING TO OUR WEST WILL SEND A WAVE
OUR DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL OVERSPREAD A
SHARPENING DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/NM BORDER AROUND 20-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THAT THE UPR WAVE, ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS
FOR INITIAL ACTIVITY SEEM TO BE FROM ROUGHLY HARTLEY TO DALHART TO
BOISE CITY.

AT THE MESOSCALE: THE 18Z KAMA SOUNDING SHOWS AN INTERESTING
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH LOW LEVELS STRUGGLING TO MIX OUT BENEATH A
SHARP INVERSION CENTERED AROUND H8. SFC OBS REFLECT THIS AS MOST
EVERY LOCATION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REMAINED BELOW 70F AT 1PM.
DEWPTS ARE FAIRLY HOMOGENOUS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH CLOUDS
FINALLY MIXING OUT BETWEEN UPR WAVES, EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
70S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREADING THE WRN
PANHANDLES, A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
WILL LIKELY BE NOTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. VALUES
OF 0-3 MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO 75-100 J/KG FROM 00Z-03Z.

IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR WAVE, SEVERAL OTHER FACTORS
CAUSE INCREASING CONCERN EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE TO LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND LCL
HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 1000M. 0-1 AND 0-3 SRH VALUES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY JUST BEYOND 00Z AS CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT COUNTERACTS
SOME MINOR LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
RIPE WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONGOING/DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS.
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE NOTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT, WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BOUNCE
BETWEEN SFC-BASED AND ELEVATED ALL THE WAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THREATS AND TIMING: ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING WITH A CONCERNING WINDOW FOR TORNADOES FROM AROUND 00Z-05Z,
WHERE A TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR MORE DISCRETE STORM
MODE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD A BIT
MORE STORM INTERACTION AND UPSCALE GROWTH LATER IN THE NIGHT AS MID
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE (SLOWLY) APPROACHING UPR LOW. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE A THREAT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED
SUPERCELL STORM MODE AND GENERALLY DRY MID LEVELS. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL GENERALLY BEGIN IN THE NW PANHANDLES AROUND 4 PM LIKELY CONTINUE
IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

LOCATION: THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL BE FAVORED
FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE, THE "INERTIA" OF
MATURE SUPERCELLS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW SUPERCELLS TO CHUG
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLES.

ALL-IN-ALL: A PRETTY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN THE
OFFING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL SCATTERED SUPERCELLS TO AFFECT
THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ELSENHEIMER/SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/

AVIATION...
VERY LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE KAMA TERMINAL ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF KGUY. EXPECT
DIMINISHED FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR KAMA AND KGUY THROUGH 14Z TO 15Z
UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. KDHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THE BETTER PART OF THIS TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE WITH A 50KT JET
RIGHT OFF THE DECK. AS MIXING INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT THE
LLWS TO DIMINISH AS SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS INCREASE.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON WE ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
EACH TERMINAL. HAVE KEPT VICINITY THUNDER FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES ON TIME OF OCCURRENCE. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS. LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN
ARIZONA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS DIVING UPPER LOW...A LEE-SIDE SURFACE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN EASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE WILL
BE FOUND SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE LOW THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BROUGHT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES ON GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MAY MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLES WELL AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW BACK IN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA AROUND PEAK
HEATING...THEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET GOING EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
OTHERWISE...IF THE TIMING IS OFF BY JUST A BIT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AT
ANY RATE...MORE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE DRYLINE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE DRYLINE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WEST
TEXAS. INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND THE AIR
ALOFT WILL ONLY BE COOLING OFF WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY
GIVEN THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE PANHANDLES. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW EDGES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A DRY SLOT MAY BE WORKING INTO
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
FOCUS THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS MORE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE. MORE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL START TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND
THIS SHOULD AGAIN HELP TO FOCUS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PANHANDLES SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN BY MONDAY...BUT THEN
CHANCES OF RAIN MOVE BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SEVERAL MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...NOW OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES HELPING TO SET OFF THIS NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  53  70  44  60 /  30  60  50  50  40
BEAVER OK                  78  55  67  50  57 /  40  80  90 100  70
BOISE CITY OK              77  47  61  39  49 /  30  80  90  40  30
BORGER TX                  77  58  68  47  59 /  30  60  50  90  50
BOYS RANCH TX              80  53  71  44  60 /  30  50  50  30  30
CANYON TX                  77  51  73  44  61 /  30  50  40  40  30
CLARENDON TX               75  55  68  50  62 /  30  60  50 100  60
DALHART TX                 80  47  67  40  56 /  30  50  60  30  20
GUYMON OK                  77  54  66  44  54 /  40  80  80  50  40
HEREFORD TX                80  51  74  43  62 /  30  50  40  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                76  56  67  52  59 /  30  60  80 100  70
PAMPA TX                   76  55  67  47  60 /  30  60  50 100  60
SHAMROCK TX                76  55  66  53  63 /  30  60  60 100  70
WELLINGTON TX              77  55  67  55  65 /  20  60  60 100  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

9/3

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