Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
919 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will bring the chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into the evening. Some
of the thunderstorms may contain damaging winds or large hail.
Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid over the holiday
weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Tornado Watch 313 has been cancelled for all of eastern New York
and adjacent western New England.

As of 910 PM EDT, the most widespread deep convection has shifted
south and east of our region. However, the main cold front remains
to our N and W. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms have developed
along or just ahead of the boundary. Despite boundary layer
cooling, the mid/upper levels are also cooling with the approach
of the upper level trough from the Great Lakes. So - still some
isolated to scattered convection to persist for another several
hours across the region, with the best chances near and north of
I-90 which will also be coincident with better upper level
dynamics. The threat for tornadoes certainly has decreased - and
although the overall severe threat is decreasing, still can not
rule out a rogue strong/severe cell through midnight.

Cooler and less humid conditions are expected after midnight with
winds shifting into the west/northwest. Lows should mainly be in
the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and seasonable conditions are expected during the short term
period as a large ridge of high pressure builds into and settles
over the region. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 60s to
upper 70s with lows Saturday night in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s to lower 80s with lows
Sunday night in the 50s. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 70s to
mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and mild conditions are in store for 4th of July fireworks
displays.  Seasonably hot conditions are in store for this period.
High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s Tuesday...
with highs from the upper 70s to around 90 degrees Wednesday through
Friday.  Tuesday night lows will range from the upper 50s to mid
60s...with lows in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Low pressure passing off to the north on Friday will increase
precip chances.  Until then...conditions will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to eastern NY and western New England through
midnight. The front will move move east of the region overnight.
High Pressure will be gradually building in from the western Great
Lakes Region and Midwest tomorrow.

With low level moisture remaining in place, some areas of MVFR/IFR
cigs will remain possible until the front passes through between
05Z-07Z/Sat. Thereafter, expect mainly VFR conditions through
Saturday.

Light south to southeast winds will shift into the west at 5-10
kts between 05Z-08Z. The winds will strengthen from the west at
10-15 kts in the late morning with gusts close to 25-30 kts.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A frontal boundary will bring the chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into the evening. Some
of the thunderstorms may contain damaging winds or large hail.
Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid over the holiday
weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

Relative humidity values will recover to 85 to 100 percent
tonight, drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday, recover to 70 to
100 percent Saturday night, and drop to 30 to 45 percent on
Sunday.

Winds will be southwest around 10 mph tonight, west at 10 to 15
mph with gusts up to 25 mph on Saturday, west at 10 to 15 mph
diminishing to less than 5 mph after midnight Saturday night, and
west at 10 to 15 mph on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall deficits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won't be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall deficits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today's rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-021100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
144 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...TORNADO WATCH 313 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT

LITCHFIELD

IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

BERKSHIRE

IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK

ALBANY                COLUMBIA              DUTCHESS
GREENE                RENSSELAER            SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY           SCHOHARIE             ULSTER
WARREN                WASHINGTON

IN EASTERN NEW YORK

FULTON                HAMILTON              HERKIMER
MONTGOMERY

IN SOUTHERN VERMONT

BENNINGTON            WINDHAM

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