Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
644 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Humid conditions will continue along with the threat for showers
and thunderstorms through Sunday as a front moves gradually
southward across the region. Any storm will be capable of
producing locally very heavy rainfall. With the passage of front
Sunday night some drier air will filter into the region in the
wake of the boundary for early next week. Temperatures will still
run above normal by around 5 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Severe thunderstorm watch #445 is in effect until 1 am for all of
east central new York and western New England.

Another hot and very humid day across the area. Dew points are
in the 70s. Heat headlines will be allowed to expire at 7 pm.

Will be another very muggy night with lows only bottoming in the
70s with upper 60s across the higher terrain. With such a moist
atmosphere in place patchy fog is expected to develop once again.

The stalled boundary has moved little today and snakes across
New England westward across upstate New York into the Great Lakes
Region. It has been a focus for convection especially to the north
where we have moderate mid level flow to support storms. Some of
the storms earlier were producing very heavy downpours, frequent
lightning and strong gusty winds. Stronger storms are expected
this evening. Cloud top are cooling. The watervapor loop shows a
fair strong short wave moving across the Great Lakes region

High precipitable water value was 2.14 inches on the 12Z ALY
sounding (175 percent of normal) and 2.12 inches on the 12Z BUF
sounding (189 percent of normal), so very heavy downpours are
occurring with storms. Localized flash flooding remains possible
with the greatest risk will be for urban, poor drainage and low
lying areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Another day of heat and humidity across much of the forecast area.

Heat Advisory has been issued for the Dutchess, eastern Ulster
and southern Litchfield County for heat indices up to around 100
depress Sunday noon to 7 pm.

The stalled boundary should have lifted northward some by Sunday
morning as a weakening area of low pressure moves eastward across
eastward Canada. As the low moves off to the east it will drag a
cold/cool front across the region Sunday night. Ahead of the
boundary additional showers and thunderstorms are expected with
the best chances across the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley
into western New England with the peak heating of the day. As
stated early precipitable water levels will remain high so any
storm will be capable of very heavy rainfall.

With the passage of the boundary some drier and cooler air will
will filter in late Sunday night and Monday. Dew points are
forecast to lower into the 60s with some 50s possible in the
western Adirondacks.

Temperatures will be cooler but still above normal but only by
around 5 degrees or so. Dew points are forecast to range from the
upper 50s to upper 60s which will be more comfortable and less
dangerous than recent days.

A period of dry weather is expected late Sunday night into Monday
night as ridging build in.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A short wave is expected to move around the western side of the
upper ridge with surface low forming over the mid west/ohio
valley by Tuesday. This storm is then expected to strengthen as
it moves northeastward across the Great Lakes region and
Northeast bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the
area through the middle of the week.

Additional chances for some storms are possible Thursday as a
cold front moves across the region. At this time, it appears fair
weather is then expected as we head into the weekend.

Temperatures are expected to continue to run a bit above normal
by around 5 degrees or so with highs mainly the upper 70s to mid
80s much of the week. Lows are expected to be in the upper 50s to
upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A stationary front will slowly drift south/southeast across upstate
NY and New England as a cold front this afternoon into tomorrow with
scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing.

A disturbance moving along the frontal boundary will increase the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this
evening.  Some stronger thunderstorms are possible north of KPOU.
The coverage will be great enough for TEMPO groups for thunderstorms
for KGFL/KPSF btwn 18Z-22Z...KALB 19Z-23Z...and KPOU 21Z-00Z.  A
VCTS group was also used for many sites until 23Z-02Z.  Expect at
least low MVFR CIGS/VSBYS with any thunderstorms...and perhaps brief
reductions under an hour with IFR conditions.  Conditions should
improve back to VFR conditions btwn 00Z-06Z.

However...IFR or even LIFR mist/fog and low stratus is possible
especially at KGFL/KPSF in the moist air mass overnight with
clearing skies. For now have low VFR/MVFR VSBYS at KALB/KPOU with
mid and high level clouds around.

VFR conditions will return by the late morning...but showers and
thunderstorms should increase again ahead of the front towards
noontime.

South to southwest winds at 5-10 knots will continue this afternoon
into the early evening.  They will become light at 5 kts or less
tonight. S/SW winds again will increase at 5-10 kts late tomorrow
morning.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any
thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...FG...TSRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Humid conditions will continue along with the threat for showers
and thunderstorms through Sunday as a front moves gradually
southward across the region. Any storm will be capable of
producing locally very heavy rainfall. With the passage of front
Sunday night some drier air will filter into the region in the
wake of the boundary for early next week. Minimum relative
humidity levels are not expected to drop below 50 percent neither
Sunday or Monday afternoons.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Very heavy rainfall occurring with storms. High precipitable
water value was 2.14 inches on the 12Z ALY sounding (175 percent
of normal) and 2.12 inches on the 12Z BUF sounding (189 percent of
normal), so very heavy downpours are occurring with storms.
Localized flash flooding remains possible with the greatest risk
will be for urban, poor drainage and low lying areas.

This threat will continue through Sunday until the passage a
front. The boundary is expected to move to our south Sunday night
with precipitable water values forecast to drop below 1.5 inches
Sunday night into Monday.

A brief period of dry weather is expected late Sunday night
through Monday into Monday night, then more unsettled humid
weather is expected through the middle of the week.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ013.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ041-049-050-
     052-053-059>061-083.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ064>066.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

CTZ013-NYZ064>066-141100-
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
937 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DUTCHESS...EASTERN ULSTER
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES..

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST FLOOD RISK WILL BE FOR URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ON SUNDAY...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING
AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO SEND RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CTZ001-NYZ041-049-050-052-053-059>061-083-141100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
937 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SARATOGA GLENS FALLS AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST FLOOD RISK WILL BE FOR URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ON
SUNDAY...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
GREATEST RISK FOR URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE. ALSO...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SEND RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-048-051-054-058-063-082-
084-VTZ013>015-141100-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-WESTERN ULSTER-NORTHERN FULTON-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
937 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE AREA...MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...WASHINGTON COUNTY...THE NORTHERN
TACONICS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
FLOOD RISK WILL BE FOR URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ON
SUNDAY...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
GREATEST RISK FOR URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE. ALSO...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SEND RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
556 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PITTSTOWN               42.84N  73.48W
08/13/2016                   RENSSELAER         NY   911 CALL CENTER

            2 TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1602011

WASULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW HOOSICK FALLS     42.89N  73.36W
08/13/2016                   RENSSELAER         NY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ACROSS BOVEE HILL ROAD AND LESTER LANE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1602012

FRUGIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

NYZ054-084-VTZ013-014-132245-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-EASTERN RENSSELAER-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-
605 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RENSSELAER...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN BENNINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL
WINDHAM COUNTIES...

AT 605 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMBRIDGE...OR
NEAR HOOSICK FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHAFTSBURY AROUND 615 PM EDT.
  ARLINGTON AROUND 625 PM EDT.
  MANCHESTER AROUND 640 PM EDT.
  MANCHESTER CENTER AROUND 645 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE PUMPKIN HOOK...WHITE
CREEK...BOUPLON CORNER...EAGLEVILLE...PETERS FOUR CORNERS...STRATTON
MOUNTAIN...MANCHESTER DEPOT...GLASTENBURY...STRATTON ACRES AND
SHAFTSBURY CENTER.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4310 7280 4286 7342 4292 7346 4294 7346
      4295 7347 4326 7313
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 235DEG 26KT 4297 7331

FRUGIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
609 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HERKIMER                43.03N  74.99W
08/13/2016                   HERKIMER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1602013

WASULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE SOUTH CAMBRIDGE   42.97N  73.47W
08/13/2016                   WASHINGTON         NY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 59A

0427 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PITTSTOWN               42.84N  73.48W
08/13/2016                   RENSSELAER         NY   911 CALL CENTER

            2 TREES DOWN.

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW HOOSICK FALLS     42.89N  73.36W
08/13/2016                   RENSSELAER         NY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ACROSS BOVEE HILL ROAD AND LESTER LANE

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HERKIMER                43.03N  74.99W
08/13/2016                   HERKIMER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1602010 ALY1602011 ALY1602012 ALY1602013

WASULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

NYZ047-048-051-132345-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-WESTERN ALBANY-
701 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN ALBANY...CENTRAL
SCHOHARIE AND SOUTHWESTERN SCHENECTADY COUNTIES...

AT 700 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
RICHMONDVILLE... OR NEAR COBLESKILL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COBLESKILL AROUND 710 PM EDT.
  MIDDLEBURGH AND CENTRAL BRIDGE AROUND 720 PM EDT.
  SCHOHARIE AROUND 725 PM EDT.
  BERNE AROUND 740 PM EDT.
  WESTERLO AND ALTAMONT AROUND 745 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE WEST RICHMONDVILLE...
GALLUPVILLE...HUNTERSLAND...DUANE MANSION...ZEH CORNERS...EAST
TOWNSHIP... HAWVERSVILLE...KNOX...SCHOHARIE JUNCTION AND BRAMANVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 19 AND 23.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4262 7463 4268 7464 4275 7463 4276 7404
      4248 7403 4257 7466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 276DEG 27KT 4266 7455

WASULA