Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
401 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High Pressure will remain centered well off the mid Atlantic and
southeast coast through the middle of the week. A frontal boundary
will linger north of the area before gradually dropping south into
the region later Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure remains anchored off the Southeast coast
this afternoon, with a weak trough lingering over s-central/se VA
into ne NC. Iso-sct showers/tstms have developed in vicinity of the
boundary this aftn. MLCAPE values range from 2000-3000 J/kg, so
updrafts strengthen quickly. However, deep layer shear is less than
20kt, so the convection has been very disorganized and short-lived.
Temperatures this aftn outside of tstms are in the low to mid 90s
with heat indices generally 100-104 across the n, and 105-109 across
the s.

Showers/tstms should linger into the early evening hours and become
more concentrated over the Piedmont, before dissipating later this
evening, with only a 20% PoP over the Lower MD Ern Shore after
midnight. Warm and humid tonight with lows in the mid/upper 70s.
Again, record high mins could be challenged. Fog/stratus is not
expected tonight as the weak trough lifts back to the n producing a
wind shift from e/se to ssw.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains anchored off the Southeast coast
Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs return to the mid 90s Tuesday as the
weak trough/front lifts n of the local area. Heat indices average
105-109 along and e of the I-95 corridor, so a heat advisory has
been issued. Dewpoints should be slightly lower over the Piedmont
with heat indices generally 100 to 104. Warm and humid again Tuesday
night with lows in the mid/upper 70s (additional record high mins
may be challenged). The ridge slowly weakens and gets shunted
offshore Wednesday. This will allow a cold front to approach from
the nw late Wednesday. Most of the day will likely be dry, with an
increasing chc of showers/tstms nw-se by mid-late aftn. Still
hot/humid with highs averaging in the mid 90s s to low 90s n and at
the immediate coast. Another heat advisory is likely across srn/se
VA/ne NC as heat indices reach or exceed 105 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Long term period will be characterized by a breakdown in the upper-
level ridge that was in place over the area the previous several
days. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will slowly drop south into the
area Wed night through Fri leading to frequent chances of
shras/tstms. Included a 30-40% chance of rain Thu with the front in
the vicinity and weak cyclonic flow aloft. High temps in the upper
80s to near 90. Similar temps for Fri, with a 20-30% chance of rain.
Typical summer-like conditions expected over the weekend with high
temps avgg in the upper 80s both days and a 20-40% chance of
shras/tstms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains anchored off the coast this afternoon. A
weak surface trough is located over central and se VA and isolated
showers/tstms are developing in vicinity of this boundary.
Developing tstms are near ORF/ECG as of 18z, so VCTS has been
added through 20z. Additional showers/tstms are possible nw of RIC
later this aftn/evening. The overall chc of showers/tstms is low,
generally 20-30%. A light e/se wind this afternoon will become ssw
later tonight and increase to 10-15kt Tuesday. Low-level moisture
remains limited, so fog/stratus is not expected late tonight into
Tuesday morning. A somewhat stronger front drops into the region
Wednesday/Thursday bringing an increased chc (30-50%) of mainly
afternoon/evening showers/tstms. The front remains near the area
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary just north of the
area with high pressure off the Carolina coast. This setup will
allow SE/S flow to continue this eveng into tonight, mainly at 10-15
kt with 1-2 ft waves and seas. Pressure gradient then tightens up
late Tue, with winds and seas expected to just fall short of sca
criteria over the ocean Tue eveng. Will need to re-evaluate again
tonight but with this being 3rd period, warm air above the sfc, and
recent tendency for guidance to overdue wave heights a bit, held off
on any headlines. A frontal boundary then drops and stalls near the
area mid to late week, allowing marine conditions to improve aside
from possible aftn/eveng shras/tstms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Over the weekend, the only record high set or tied was the 98 F at
SBY on Sunday 8/14 (tied). However, all sites were able to tie or
set new record high mins both Sat 8/13 and Sun 8/14 (see RER's for
details). Record highs and record high mins Through Wed are listed
below:

* Record Highs:

* Today Mon (8/15) / Tue (8/16) / Wed (8/17)

* RIC   98 (1900)   101 (1954)    99 (1988)
* ORF   98 (1980)    96 (2007)    98 (1988)
* SBY   96 (1947)    98 (1997)    97 (1997)

* Record High Mins:

* Today Mon (8/15) / Tue (8/16) / Wed (8/17)

* RIC   76 (1980)    75 (1997)    76 (2010)
* ORF   78 (2005)    78 (1997)    80 (1995)
* SBY   76 (1969)    77 (2002)    78 (1995)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>025.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ062-064-
     067>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-510>525.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065>067-
     079>082-084-086>090-092-093-095>098-514-523>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

MDZ021>025-NCZ102-VAZ062-064-068-069-075>078-083-085-099-100-510>513-
515>522-161945-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
EASTERN CURRITUCK-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-AMELIA-POWHATAN-WESTMORELAND-
RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-NEW KENT-MIDDLESEX-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON-EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER-EASTERN HANOVER-
WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-
WESTERN HENRICO (INCLUDING THE CITY OF RICHMOND)-EASTERN HENRICO-
WESTERN KING WILLIAM-EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-
EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
338 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST
MARYLAND...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ067-079>082-084-086>090-092-093-095>098-514-
523>525-161945-
NORTHAMPTON-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-WESTERN CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-NOTTOWAY-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-GLOUCESTER-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-EASTERN CHESTERFIELD (INCLUDING COL. HEIGHTS)-YORK-
NEWPORT NEWS-HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
338 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EASTERN
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ048-060-061-509-161945-
FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-WESTERN LOUISA-
338 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ065-066-161945-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
338 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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