Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
150 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will drop from southern Virginia south
through North Carolina today through tonight, as high pressure
builds from the Great Lakes into New England. That high will slide
off the New England coast Wednesday through Thursday, as the
frontal boundary will linger across the Carolinas and offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updated forecast for the afternoon to reflect shower activity
developing along slow moving frontal boundary, which is bisecting
the area at midday. High PWs, deep warm cloud depths and lingering
mid level cap will serve to favor moderate to heavy showers vice
thunder...but better chances for thunder remain in for the
afternoon across the southern half of the area.

Highs a bit cooler than previous days...low to mid 80s north and
coastal sections, mid to upper 80s south central VA/interior NE
NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Late this evening into Wed morning, chcs will diminish to 20-30%
acrs srn/sw counties, as the boundary pushes farther s into NC,
and high pressure blds into New England. Mostly clear to mostly
cloudy tngt with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Latest model runs (00z/02) show high pressure sliding off the New
England coast Wed thru Thu, as the frontal boundary lingers acrs
the Carolinas and offshore. Thus, have tweaked the fcst a bit,
especially acrs the srn/sw counties where deeper lo level
moisture will remain along with possible lo level convergence and
lift, which may result in isolated or sctd showers or tstms.
However, still expect dry conditions acrs nrn/ne counties Wed and
Thu with more sunshine and more comfortable humidity. Highs will
average in the mid 80s both days, with lower 80s along the Atlc
coast of the Ern Shore. Lows Wed ngt will range fm the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure off the New England coast is expected to
push out to sea Thu night/Fri as a sfc low crosses nrn Ontario.
This feature is expected to drag a cold front through the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley Fri...then cross the Mid Atlantic Region
Sat/Sat night. The front is now showing signs of stalling over
the Carolinas on Sun. Meanwhile, a large scale upper low
traverses the SE half of Canada...potentially bringing cooler
temps and maybe even some clouds to the area in nw flow aloft. A
little too soon to hash out these exact details, but this would be
enough to shunt the frontal boundary south of the area as progged
by long term model solutions. Little to no changes have been made
to ongoing temp/precip forecast. Overall, aftn/evening
thunderstorms possible Fri-Sun.

With sfc high pressure shifting ewd and away from the New
England/Atlantic coast, temperatures and dewpoints/humidity will
begin a gradual warming trend Fri through the upcoming weekend.
Lows Thu night around 70F inland/lower 70s beaches. Highs Fri
in the upper 80s inland/low-mid 80s beaches. Lows Fri/Sat nights
70-75F inland/mid-upper 70s se beaches. Highs Sat/Sun in the
lower 90s inland/mid 80s beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 17z...A weak frontal boundary was moving to the south through
southeast Virginia. Scattered thunderstorms were developing along
the boundary mainly affecting PHF and ORF. The boundary will
continue moving to the south. Convection should remain south of
RIC ard SBY. Will need to monitor for thunderstorms through this
evening southeast portions.

Brief periods of IFR and gusty winds can be expected with the
thunderstorms. Some MVFR conditions are possible Wednesday morning.
Thunderstorms will be possible far southern portions on Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...The front stalls over the Carolinas. Most of the
convection should remain to the south through Friday. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A sfc frontal boundary was situated ovr the nrn bay/ocn waters at
06z/02. Wnds NNE N of that boundary...WSW S of it (speeds mnly aob
10 kt). That boundary fcst to settle S acrs the rmng waters
through 00-06z/03...w/ the hi res guid placing it invof the nrn
NC wtrs by lt tngt. Long pd (through Thu) of onshore (ENE) wnds
expected. Some slgt increase in speeds (to 15-20kt) mnly on the
ocn wtrs (mnly on Wed). Sfc hi pres retreating E of New Eng by lt
wk will bring a gradual end to the onshore wnds. Seas avg 2-3ft...but
may build to 4ft fm 10-20nm in the persistent onshore flo Wed into
Thu. Waves avg 1-2ft in the bay/snd...though pds of 3 ft psbl
invof the mouth of the bay.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Due to persistent pd of onshore wnds...tidal levels w/ be on the
increase...w/ a few locations potentially reaching within 0.5 ft
of minor flood thresholds (Wed-Thu).

&&

.CLIMATE...
6.98 inches of rain at ORF yesterday set a daily record rainfall.
This appears to rank as the fifth highest calendar day total on
record for ORF.

Another climo note for Norfolk: Per monthly climate, July 2016
will go down as 6th warmest month on record at ORF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
242 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ012-VAZ079-087-021930-
NORTHAMPTON-BRUNSWICK-GREENSVILLE-
242 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE VIRGINIA - NORTH CAROLINA BORDER...

AT 241 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLARESVILLE TO GASBURG. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ROANOKE RAPIDS...GARYSBURG...RICH
SQUARE...DAHLIA...GASTON...SEABOARD...
GASBURG...BARLEY...EBONY...JACKSON...ROANOKE RAPIDS LAKE...PLEASANT
HILL... BOONES CROSSROADS...SLATES
CORNER...TRIPLET...BRYANTOWN...VULTARE...GUM FORKS...TURNERS
CROSSROADS AND VALENTINES.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.
BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS. HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING OF DITCHES AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3621 7739 3624 7738 3627 7741 3632 7744
      3630 7753 3631 7757 3634 7758 3638 7755
      3641 7755 3645 7763 3648 7765 3648 7777
      3651 7790 3654 7790 3655 7803 3662 7803
      3663 7746 3646 7744 3627 7726 3618 7732
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 352DEG 43KT 3659 7747 3658 7790

44

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
324 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ012-VAZ065-079-087-022015-
NORTHAMPTON-BRUNSWICK-MECKLENBURG-GREENSVILLE-
324 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
NORTHAMPTON...SOUTHWESTERN GREENSVILLE...SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG AND
SOUTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...

AT 324 PM EDT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BOYDTON TO NEAR BARLEY. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH
AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ROANOKE RAPIDS AND GASTON AROUND 330 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE
BASKERVILLE...NELSON... ROANOKE RAPIDS LAKE...PALMER
SPRINGS...ANTE...BOWENS CORNER...SLATES CORNER...BUFFALO
JUNCTION...TRIPLET AND WHITE PLAINS.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.
BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS. HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING OF DITCHES AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3668 7869 3669 7865 3664 7858 3664 7856
      3670 7865 3671 7864 3668 7757 3642 7757
      3645 7763 3648 7765 3648 7775 3651 7790
      3654 7790 3654 7870
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 353DEG 54KT 3664 7844 3656 7778

44