Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
144 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west during today, then
crosses the region this evening into Saturday morning. The front
will then remain nearly stationary across North Carolina from
Saturday afternoon into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis depicts a southwest to northeast pseudo warm
front over the central portion of the forecast area. Along and
south of the boundary, dewpoints have climbed into the low to mid
70's with precipitable waters over 1.75 inches. Temperatures have
warmed into the low 80's south of the boundary, resulting in
MLCAPE values of 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg. This unstable air mass along
the frontal boundary in tandem with height falls ahead of an
approaching upstream trough has resulted in scattered showers and
thunderstorms across central Virginia to the Maryland Eastern
Shore. Expect this activity to persist through early afternoon,
pushing eastward through mid afternoon. Some of the storms may
produce gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. A brief
reprieve expected across central Virginia early to mid afternoon
as the upstream cold front approaches from the northwest. Breaks
in the clouds and return flow will push afternoon temps into the
upper 80's inland. Highs in the mid to upper 80's southeast due to
afternoon clouds and precip. Warm temps and theta-e advection will
maintain an increasingly unstable air mass ahead of the front.
MLCAPE values progged between 1,500 and 2,000 J/kg. Deep layer
shear also increases ahead of the upper level trough, with
effective shear between 30 and 40 knots. Best coverage expected
north and east of Richmond, owing to better forcing and deeper
moisture. Farther south and west, westerly flow and a drying
column will limit overall coverage. Main impacts late afternoon
into the evening will be strong gusty winds, hail, and locally
heavy rainfall. The cold front drops into the forecast area late
tonight, reaching the coast by early Saturday morning. Deep
moisture begins to push offshore ahead of the front, with
decreasing POPs along the coast after midnight. Will maintain
slight chance POPs along the coast through late tonight. Clouds
begin to thin/clear northwest to southeast through late tonight.
Lows in the low to mid 70's.

Highest rainfall amounts expected Northern Neck to the Maryland
Eastern Shore were amounts will generally be around one half inch.
Less into central Virginia with amounts generally at or below one
quarter of an inch. Locally higher amounts expected in
thunderstorms. With ongoing concerns from recent rainfall in
Wicomico County, a local, short-fused area flood warning may be
needed depending on 12Z model trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short term guidance continues to stall the front over North
Carolina Saturday aftn through Sunday. Deep moisture pushes south
of the local area Saturday, along with the best chances for
measurable precip. Will keep mention of scattered showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon for far southern Virginia and
northeast North Carolina as moisture begins to return in low level
southwest flow. Highs in the mid to upper 80's under a partly
cloudy sky north to mostly cloudy south. Front remains in the
vicinity of northern North Carolina Saturday night through Sunday
as several waves in the westerly flow ride along the front.
Moisture also pools along the boundary with precipitable water
values around 2 inches. Good storm motion may limit the overall
potential for excessive rainfall Sunday, but anomalous moisture
and several upper waves will likely result in periods of heavy
rainfall. Highs Sunday only in the low 80's under a mostly cloudy
sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A frontal boundary shifts northward through the area Sunday night
into Independence Day as a trough drops into the Great Lakes and a
ridge builds over the East Coast. The general consensus is for the
trough to push through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night,
followed by a pattern that features a weak trough off the coast,
with a mid/upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Thursday. The 30/12z GFS remains
more amplified during the Tuesday-Thursday period than GEFS mean and
30/12z ECMWF. PoPs will generally be diurnally driven Monday and
Tuesday, averaging 30-40% across the area. PoPs drop to less than
15% by Wednesday as drier air builds in from the north. A shortwave
trough dropping in from the NW could trigger some afternoon/evening
showers/tstms by Thursday, but confidence with respect to details is
low at this range (a week in advance). Forecast high temperatures
are generally in the low/mid 80s Independence Day, and then trend
into the mid 80s to around 90 Tuesday through Thursday. Lows will
average in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sct tstms contg to develop early this aftn...mnly in ern VA.
Additional shras/tstms xpcd through the aftn/eve. Went w/ mnly
VCTS given isold/sct coverage. Otrw...sct-bkn layered cldns...cigs
mnly 5-10kft. Cdfnt crosses the region tonight shifting winds to
more NNW by 12Z/02. Boundary stalls acrs far srn VA/nrn NC on
Sat...may be a focus for at least isold aftn/eve tstms at
PHF/ORF/ECG. Lo pres tracks acrs the rgn Sun into Mon with periods
of IFR and/or MVFR conds in numerous shras/sct tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines today despite a weak inland trof. South winds less than
15 KTS. A cold front crosses the waters late tonight shifting winds
to the West. High pressure builds into the area from the North
Saturday. Data continues to support a brief NNW surge Saturday
morning with speeds 15 KTS or less although a few gusts to 20 KTS
are possible across the Ches Bay. Winds become NE and gradually
diminishes late Saturday. The front drops south of the area Saturday
night into Sunday, then lifts through the area Sunday night into
Monday. A weak front approaches from the NW Tuesday. Seas 2-3 ft
through the period, with 1-2 ft waves in the Bay. A brief period
of 2-3 Ft waves is possible in the Bay Saturday morning with the
surge.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RIC now up to 7.81" for the month of June through 3pm today. This
makes 2016 the 7th wettest June on record (2004 is wettest June
with 9.93"). Also, the May-June total at RIC now stands at 17.60"
and is the 2nd wettest (1972 is wettest with 17.69").

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1216 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ065-066-079-087-092-093-095>098-525-021630-
NORTHAMPTON-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-WESTERN CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-EASTERN CURRITUCK-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
BRUNSWICK-GREENSVILLE-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
1216 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-075>078-080>086-088>090-099-100-509>524-
021630-
FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-
POWHATAN-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-DINWIDDIE-
PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN LOUISA-
EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER-EASTERN HANOVER-WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-
EASTERN CHESTERFIELD (INCLUDING COL. HEIGHTS)-
WESTERN HENRICO (INCLUDING THE CITY OF RICHMOND)-EASTERN HENRICO-
WESTERN KING WILLIAM-EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-
EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-
1216 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

MDZ021>025-021630-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
1216 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO RISES ON ALREADY SWOLLEN STREAMS AND CREEKS FROM LAST
TUESDAYS HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MINNICK

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