Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
406 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will sweep through the Mid-Atlantic region this
evening. This will usher in cool and dry Canadian high pressure into
the area later tonight through Monday. A slow moving frontal system
will move into the region Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A vigorous trough and associated cold front are digging
into the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon. A band of showers and
potentially a few tstms extends from ern PA swd to the lee of the
Blue Ridge. Instability is rather limited this afternoon. However,
the mid-level flow is rather strong with ~40kt at 700mb and 50-60kt
at 500mb. Additionally, especially the nrn half of the area, will be
in the left-front quadrant of a 100+ kt 200mb jet pushing in from
the west. This will help maintain the showers as they move ewd
through the late afternoon and early evening hours. A deep and well
mixed BL should help promote some locally strong wind gusts along
the leading edge of the showers. The showers will be reaching the
Richmond area around the time of this issuance (~4 pm), Williamsburg
to Salisbury closer to 530 pm, and Norfolk between 600-630 pm.
Temperatures average from the upper 70s to low 80s across the area
(locally upper 60s at the immediate coast of the Ern Shore). Expect
a sharp drop in temperature once the showers arrive with readings
dropping to around 60F.

The front is progged to quickly sweep offshore later this evening.
30-40% PoPs will be continued along the coast during the evening
hours. However, the potential for any stronger wind gusts should end
by about 00z/8 pm for coastal ne NC. Drier and substantially cooler
air will arrive overnight as the wind becomes nw and Canadian high
pressure builds into the area. Lows drop into the low/mid 40s for
the Piedmont and interior coastal plain, and upper 40s to around 50
toward the coast under a mostly clear sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
850mb temperatures are progged to drop to -2C across
the north by Sunday morning, with 2-4C across the south. These
values are around -2 st dev for mid-May. Mostly sunny Sunday morning
and then becoming partly sunny during the aftn as a secondary trough
tracks across the region. Downslope flow will offset the cooler
temperatures aloft. Nevertheless, highs will average about -1 st dev
and be in the mid/upper 60s. Deep mixing will allow dewpoints to
drop into the upper 20s over the Piedmont to the mid 30s closer to
the coast along with a breezy westerly wind. Overall sensible
weather Sunday will be drastically different than what has been felt
over the past few weeks.

Surface high pressure settles over the region Sunday night under nw
flow aloft. The presence of a cool/dry airmass along with a clear
sky will produce rather ideal radiational cooling conditions for mid-
May. Lows drop into the upper 30s to low 40s over the Piedmont and
interior coastal plain, with low/mid 40s closer to the coast. The
flow becomes zonal Monday with high pressure sliding offshore. The
sky should be mostly sunny early with the potential for increasing
high clouds with waa aloft. Highs should warm a few degrees into the
upper 60s to around 70F.

A slow moving trough drops into the Great Lakes Monday night into
Tuesday as a frontal system sets up from the Ohio Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic. Clouds are expected to increase/thicken Monday night,
with a chc of showers arriving Tuesday as isentropic lift
overspreads the area. Highs Tuesday will generally be in the 60s
with low 70s se, after morning lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure develops in relatively flat sw-w flow aloft as sfc
high pressure settles over the Great Lakes Region Tue night
through Wed night. Conditions will be wet and cloudy during this
time. Thunderstorms may be possible along the VA/NC border and far
se VA Wed aftn/evening. High temperatures should run about
5-10 degrees below normal with readings Wed in the mid-upper 60s
north (including beaches) and lower 70s south. Low temperatures
should be around 5 degrees above normal with lows Tue night/Wed
night generally in the 50s (low 60s possible in ne NC Tue night).

The sfc high slides across the northeast CONUS Thu into Fri which
will help to shunt weak sfc low pressure and associated
precipitation farther south. Expect conditions to start drying out
during the day Thu with dry weather now anticipated Thu night and
Fri. Next wave of low pressure to move into the TN Valley/wrn
Carolinas Fri night into Sat. As a warm front lifts twd the Mid
Atlantic Region from the south, expect showers to spread into the
area from the sw and increase through the day. Thunderstorms may
be possible Sat aftn/evening across scntrl VA, far se VA, and
ne NC. Highs Thu/Fri/Sat in the lower 70s (upper 60s beaches).
Lows Thu/Fri nights generally in the 50s (around 60 ne NC).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conds and ideal flying conditions across terminals early this
afternoon. Do expect a brief period of deteriorating conditions as
a quick moving cool front crosses the region. Regional obs showing
any showers back in the mountains occurring from a VFR base
(mainly 4-8kft AGL), which meshes well with the thinking of
convective allowing models thus far. Therefore, have kept terminal
ceilings in VFR range for the upcoming TAF period, though some
brief vsby restrictions will be possible, most likely at RIC-SBY
and north. Breezy this afternoon ahead of the front, with w-sw
winds ~10-12kt gusting to around 20kt thru early evening. Best
chances for showers is between 20-01z at RIC/SBY/PHF...22-03z at
ORF/ECG. Kept to no more than vicinity thunder wording for now at
ECG, with areal coverage/duration of any tstms likely too low for
mention at this point, but did account for a brief period of
showers early evening.

Winds shift around to the W/NW post-frontal tonight, with a quickly
clearing sky late tonight and early Sunday. High pressure will
then build into and over the area thru Mon. VFR conditions
expected to persist throughout this period. Rain chances ramp back
up Tuesday morning, ahead of next system approaching from the TN
River valley. Associated boundary looks to, once again, become
stalled in the area through the midweek period, with rain chances
remaining elevated Wed/Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is crossing cntrl VA as of 330 PM and will cross the
waters early this evening. Showers and thunderstorms associated
with the front already have a history of producing wind gusts up
to 35kt. Mariners should expect to seek safe harbor in the next
1-2 hours for ern VA rivers and Ches Bay and 2-3 hours for coastal
waters. Winds are becoming sw ahead of the front and increasing to
15-25kt. Seas/waves 2-3ft. Behind the front later this evening,
expect a decent push of cooler air over the waters...resulting in
SCA conditions on Ches Bay, the coastal waters, Currituck Sound,
and lower James River. Winds will be wly 15-20kt this evening...
becoming nw after midnight with gusts generally ranging from
25-30kt into early Sun morning. Seas/waves building to 3-4ft after
midnight tonight. The Mid Atlantic Region sits btwn a sfc low over
se Canada and a weak sfc high building over the mid-MS Valley on
Sun. This will reinforce cooler air over the waters Sun night as
the high builds into the TN Valley and sw VA...resulting in a
secondary nw surge of 15-25kt over the waters into mid-Mon morning.
Seas/waves average 2-3ft with a brief period of 3-4ft late Sun
evening.

Sfc high pressure sits over the area Mon and slides off the coast
Mon night. After which, low pressure develops in relatively flat
sw-w flow aloft as sfc high pressure settles over the Great Lakes
Region late Tue through Wed night. Conditions will be wet and
cloudy during this time, however winds over the waters will be
rather benign with generally onshore winds aob 15kt. Thunderstorms
may be possible over the srn waters Wed aftn/evening.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ633-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MRD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MRD
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAS/MAM
MARINE...BMD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-150845-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-WESTERN CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-EASTERN CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-
CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-
POWHATAN-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-
DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-
MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-SOUTHAMPTON-
ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
ACCOMACK-WESTERN LOUISA-EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER-
EASTERN HANOVER-WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-
EASTERN CHESTERFIELD (INCLUDING COL. HEIGHTS)-
WESTERN HENRICO (INCLUDING THE CITY OF RICHMOND)-EASTERN HENRICO-
WESTERN KING WILLIAM-EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-
EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-
HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
437 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST
MARYLAND...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MRD

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