Small Craft Advisory 74, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
417 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region this evening into Saturday morning.
The front will then remain nearly stationary across North Carolina
from Saturday afternoon into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Latest surface analysis places the frontal boundary over the
Piedmont. A warm, moist, and unstable air mass remains over the
local area. KAKQ radar depicts a line of heavy rain with intense
lightning along a line from Isle of Wight County northeastward to
the Maryland Eastern Shore. In the wake of this line, outflows and
cool pools have helped develop additional showers and thunderstorms
along Interstate 85 in south central Virginia northward to Richmond.
All this activity will continue to push eastward through the
afternoon, with additional scattered activity expected to develop in
the unstable air mass through late today.

Thereafter, attention turns to the approaching cold front. Upper
level flow kicks around to the west early evening as the cold front
drops into the region. Westerly flow and limited forcing will begin
to limit the overall coverage into the Piedmont and central
Virginia, but still anticipate solid chance to likely POPs north and
east of Richmond. Air mass remains unstable ahead of the front, with
deep layer shear progged around 30 to 35 knots. Strong winds, hail,
and locally heavy rainfall are still possible. SPC maintains a
slight risk for severe weather. POPs begin to taper off as the front
pushes toward the coast and deepest moisture pushes offshore. High
resolution guidance drops showers along the coast before dissipating
as they move offshore. Sky begins to clear inland late tonight,
remaining partly cloudy near the coast. Lows in the upper 60's to
low 70's.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Potent upper wave lifts into southeast Canada with westerly flow
over the Mid-Atlantic region. The front stalls in the vicinity of
northern North Carolina in the zonal flow. Deepest moisture pushes
south of the local area Saturday. Will keep chance POPs across
northern North Carolina where models depict best forcing along the
front and deepest moisture. Highs Saturday generally in the mid 80's
(cooler near the coast) under a mostly sunny sky north to partly
cloudy south. Wavy front lifts northward slightly Saturday night as
the southeast Canadian wave lifts northeast and another wave
approaches from the west. POPs increase to solid chance to likely
POPs across the far south. Clouds increase with a mostly cloudy sky
expected. Lows in the mid to upper 60's.

The wavy front will linger in the vicinity of the North
Carolina/Virginia border through Monday in westerly flow aloft.
Several waves are expected to ride along the frontal boundary as
high precipitable water air pools along the front. Expect period of
showers Sunday and Monday, especially across southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina. Timing each wave is difficult at this
point, so will refrain from likely POPs at this time. However, do
expect much of the southern area to receive rainfall. Better chances
for showers and thunderstorms expected areawide Monday afternoon as
a more potent wave approaches from the west, amplifying the flow and
lifting the front northward. The potential still exists for periods
of heavy rainfall, with minor flooding possible. Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the low to mid 80's. Lows in the mid to upper 60's
to low 70's.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal boundary shifts northward through the area during the
evening of Independence Day as a trough drops into the Great Lakes
and a ridge builds over the East Coast. The front then drops back
into the region Tuesday, and then pushes south of the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. By later in the week, a weak trough lingers
well off the coast as a mid/upper ridge becomes centered over the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley and extends up into the
Ohio Valley. PoPs will generally be diurnally driven Monday and
Tuesday, averaging 30-50% across the area. PoPs drop to less than
15% by Wednesday as drier air builds in from the north. A shortwave
trough dropping in from the NW could trigger some afternoon/evening
showers/tstms by Thursday, but confidence with respect to details is
low at this range (a week in advance). Forecast high temperatures
are generally in the mid/upper 80s Tuesday-Wednesday, and then trend
into the mid 80s to around 90 Thursday-Friday. Lows will average in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sct tstms contg to develop early this aftn...mnly in ern VA.
Additional shras/tstms xpcd through the aftn/eve. Went w/ mnly
VCTS given isold/sct coverage. Otrw...sct-bkn layered cldns...cigs
mnly 5-10kft. Cdfnt crosses the region tonight shifting winds to
more NNW by 12Z/02. Boundary stalls acrs far srn VA/nrn NC on
Sat...may be a focus for at least isold aftn/eve tstms at
PHF/ORF/ECG. Lo pres tracks acrs the rgn Sun into Mon with periods
of IFR and/or MVFR conds in numerous shras/sct tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front drops into the area this evening, and pushes
through later tonight, with high pressure building into the area
Saturday. A brief NNW surge is expected in the wake of the front
early Saturday morning. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected,
but a brief period of wind gusts up to 20kt is possible over the
Bay. The wind becomes NE and gradually diminishes Saturday. The
front drops south of the area Saturday night into Sunday, and then
lifts through the area Sunday night into Monday. A weak front
approaches from the NW Monday night and drops into the area Tuesday.
Seas average 2-3ft through the period, with 1-2ft waves in the Bay.
A brief period of 2-3ft waves is possible in the Bay Saturday
morning with the aforementioned surge.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2016 goes down as the 7th wettest June on record at 7.81
inches. The May-June total at RIC ended at 17.60 inches, making
the two month period the 2nd wettest on record. The 1st was 1972
with 17.69 inches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ065-066-079-087-092-093-095>098-525-022030-
NORTHAMPTON-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-WESTERN CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-EASTERN CURRITUCK-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
BRUNSWICK-GREENSVILLE-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
430 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION.
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-075>078-080>086-088>090-099-100-509>524-
022030-
FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-
POWHATAN-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-DINWIDDIE-
PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN LOUISA-
EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER-EASTERN HANOVER-WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-
EASTERN CHESTERFIELD (INCLUDING COL. HEIGHTS)-
WESTERN HENRICO (INCLUDING THE CITY OF RICHMOND)-EASTERN HENRICO-
WESTERN KING WILLIAM-EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-
EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-
430 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL
BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS, AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION.
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MDZ021>025-022030-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
430 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO RISES ON ALREADY SWOLLEN STREAMS AND CREEKS FROM LAST
TUESDAYS HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION.
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MINNICK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
712 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

NCZ014-VAZ096-020000-
GATES-SUFFOLK-
712 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GATES AND
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CITY OF SUFFOLK...

AT 709 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF COMO...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF FRANKLIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUNBURY...GATES...CORAPEAKE...RODUCO...HAZELTON...WYANOKE...
DRUM HILL...DORT...REYNOLDSON...EASONS CROSSROADS...BUCKLAND...
SAVAGE...ACORN HILL AND TOPSY.

MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS STORM. BE
PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAIN
COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING
OF DITCHES AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM.
SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3649 7692 3651 7692 3651 7691 3652 7690
      3653 7692 3656 7692 3657 7653 3655 7652
      3655 7654 3652 7650 3637 7659
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 288DEG 17KT 3655 7690

JFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
724 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE POPLAR             38.03N  77.39W
07/01/2016                   CAROLINE           VA   PUBLIC

            STRONG WIND CAUSED HUGE BRANCHES TO BREAK OFF TREES AND
            FLY INTO HOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1600677

JEF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

NCZ017-102-VAZ098-020015-
EASTERN CURRITUCK-WESTERN CURRITUCK-VIRGINIA BEACH-
733 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CURRITUCK  AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH...

AT 733 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KNOTTS
ISLAND... OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CURRITUCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COROLLA...KNOTTS ISLAND AND MUNDEN.

STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THESE WIND GUSTS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS...SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES...AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 3652 7608 3666 7595 3661 7584 3649 7581
      3633 7576 3629 7580
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 307DEG 12KT 3655 7595

SCALORA

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