Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Wakefield, VA

323 
WHUS71 KAKQ 141713
MWWAKQ

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

ANZ630-631-142100-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-160214T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KAKQ.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

* WAVES: 3 FEET.

* FREEZING SPRAY: LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MID
  AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON VESSELS. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE HAZARDOUS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT VESSELS
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE COUNTER MEASURES BEFORE PUTTING
TO SEA OR ENTER THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

$$

ANZ633-638-141815-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-160214T1800Z/
CURRITUCK SOUND-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS
BRIDGE TUNNEL-
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

ANZ632-634-142100-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES: 3 TO 4 FEET.

* FREEZING SPRAY: LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
WAVES OF 4 FEET OR GREATER OVER THE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MARINE FORECAST...AND
CONSIDER WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS IN PLANNING.

A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON VESSELS. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE HAZARDOUS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT VESSELS
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE COUNTER MEASURES BEFORE PUTTING
TO SEA OR ENTER THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

$$

ANZ650-652-654-142100-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
TO 20 NM-
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* SEAS: 4 TO 6 FEET.

* FREEZING SPRAY: LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 
  MID AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MARINE FORECAST...AND
CONSIDER WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS IN PLANNING.

A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON VESSELS. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE HAZARDOUS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT VESSELS
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE COUNTER MEASURES BEFORE PUTTING
TO SEA OR ENTER THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

$$

ANZ656-150000-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-160215T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* SEAS: 5 TO 7 FEET.

* FREEZING SPRAY: LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 
  MID AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MARINE FORECAST...AND
CONSIDER WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS IN PLANNING.

A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON VESSELS. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE HAZARDOUS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT VESSELS
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE COUNTER MEASURES BEFORE PUTTING
TO SEA OR ENTER THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

$$

ANZ658-150000-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-160215T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
TO 20 NM-
1213 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* SEAS: 5 TO 7 FEET.

* FREEZING SPRAY: LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 
  MID AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MARINE FORECAST...AND
CONSIDER WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS IN PLANNING.

A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED ON VESSELS. OPERATING A VESSEL IN
FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE HAZARDOUS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT VESSELS
BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE COUNTER MEASURES BEFORE PUTTING
TO SEA OR ENTER THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

$$

373 
WHUS71 KAKQ 141725
MWWAKQ

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1225 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

ANZ632-634-142100-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
1225 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY.

* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES: 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
WAVES OF 4 FEET OR GREATER OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MARINE FORECAST...AND
CONSIDER WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS IN PLANNING..

&&

$$

ANZ650-652-654-142100-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
TO 20 NM-
1225 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY.

* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* SEAS: 4 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MARINE FORECAST...AND
CONSIDER WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS IN PLANNING.

&&

$$

ANZ656-658-150000-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-160215T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
TO 20 NM-
1225 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY.

* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* SEAS: 5 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

MARINERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE MARINE FORECAST...AND
CONSIDER WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS IN PLANNING.

&&

$$

ANZ630-631-141830-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
1225 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY.

$$

216 
WHUS71 KAKQ 141945
MWWAKQ

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
245 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

ANZ632-634-142045-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
245 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

ANZ650-652-654-142045-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-160214T2100Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
TO 20 NM-
245 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

ANZ656-658-142045-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-160215T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
TO 20 NM-
245 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE RGN TODAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVING TO THE COAST BY SUNSET. DAY WILL START OFF SUNNY AND VRY COLD
WITH CI OVERSPREADING THE FA THIS AFTRN AHEAD OF THE NXT SYSTM
APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE / MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...
H85 TMPS ONLY SPRT HIGHS IN THE L-M20S ERN HALF TO 25-30 WRN HALF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CLOSE IN TRACK / TIMING FOR THE NEXT SYSTM BUT DIFFER IN
THERMAL PROFILES. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER NAM SOLN FOR THIS FCST
GIVEN HOW COLD THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
THE ENTIRE "GAMBIT" OF PCPN TYPES WITH THIS EVENT. LOOK FOR
ACCUMULATION SNOW...THEN MIXED PCPN LEADING TO ICE ACCULS ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTM MON...HVY RAIN WITH ISLTD TSTRMS ALONG THE
SERN CSTL AREAS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTM MON NITE / TUE MORN.

HIGH PRS SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVE WITH THE MSTR FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM RAPIDLY APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. OVERRUNNING PCPN
QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARND 03Z (THIS SOMEWHAT QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT) AND TOWARD THE COAST BY 12Z. THIS IS THE
EASY PART OF THE FCST AS THICKNESSES / THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN COLD
ENUF FOR THE PCPN TO START OFF AS SNOW. CHC POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY /
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY 12Z. LOW TMPS OCCUR A BIT EARLIER
THAN USUAL THEN STDY OUT DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE ERN SHORE...UPR TEENS TO L20S ELSEWHERE. QPF FCST GNRLLY
AOB .15 SO XPCT ACCULMS OF AN INCH OR LESS IVOF I95 CORRIDOR XPCT 1-
2 IN WRN MOST CNTYS THRU 12Z. XPCT A SLIPPERY COMMUTE GIVEN THE SNOW
WILL FALL WITH SFC TMPS IN THE L20S.

A MESSY DAY AHEAD MON AS THE MODELS CONT TO SHOW WARM AIR PUSHING
NRTHWRD ABOVE THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS NE
NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS NRTH BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN HOW
COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1 ...XPCG A
GENERAL 2-4" ACCUMLS WRN MOST CNTYS...1-2" I95 CORRIDOR WITH AN INCH
OR LESS TOWARD THE CSTL PLAIN...EXCEPT ACRS CSTL NE NC. TRANSITION
OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION)...ESP ALG-W OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO DISLODGE QUICKLY. BUFKIT SHOWING
GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE TRANSITION THAN THE COLDER NAM. KEPT TEMPS
AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16.
OTW...TMPS SLOWLY RISE REACHING THE M30S I95 CORRIDOR TO THE 40S
ALONG THE COAST. TOTAL ICE ACCUMLS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF
I95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.

RAIN TO BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE MON EVE THRU TUE MORN. THERE COULD BE
A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISA/FLUVANNA
COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NITE. MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF DEEP
LIFT / OMEGA LATE MON NITE INTO TUE MORN AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW. THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA SW-NE TUE MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING CDFRNT MOVG OFFSHORE BY 00Z WED. ADDED R+ TO THE GRIDS AFTR
06Z MON THRU 15Z TUE ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH INSTAB IS LIMITED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISLTD THUNDER TUE MORN AS THE SYSTM MOVES INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. LOWS MON NITE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT 00Z TUE WITH STDY OR SLOWLY
RISING READINGS. TMPS BY 12Z TUE RANGE FROM THE M30S NW TO L50S SERN
CSTL AREAS.

MDT TO HVY TUE MORN WILL QUICKLY END AS DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE RGN
AFTR FROPA. SOM SUNSHINE EVEN PSBL ACROSS WRN CNTYS IN THE AFTRN.
HIGHS TRICKY ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE DOES OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE
50S TO NR 60 SERN AREAS.

DECISION TIME ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE WATCH. DECIDED TO UPGRADE NWRN
MOST CNTYS TO A WARNING (3-4 IN OF SNOW....10 TO .20 ICE) ENDG AT
09Z MON. WENT WITH A 2 TIERED WX WX ADVSRY...FIRST ONE FOR THE I95
/ I85 CORRIDORS FOR 2-3 IN SNOW...LESS THAN .10 ICE) ENDG AT 00Z AND
SCND ONE 1-2 CNTYS FRTHR EAST ACROSS THE CSTL PLAIN FOR 1-2 INCH
ACCUM AND LTL ICE) ENDG AT 21Z MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
MORNING FROM WRN CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE INLAND WINDS
AVERAGE 6KT OR LESS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CAUSING
THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SW-W. PLENTY
OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A
DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CNTRL VA (PRIMARILY IMPACTING KRIC)
AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC. SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS WV AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ALL PRECIP TO
TRANSITION TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT. CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS BEGIN AS MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR BY MONDAY MORNING AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN IFR (AND
POSSIBLY LIFR) CIGS/VIS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTN BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS ACROSS CNTRL VA
TO THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRIC AND KSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NW WINDS STILL GUSTING UP TO 25-30KT ON CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL
WATERS AND UP TO 20KT LOWER JAMES RIVER/CURRITUCK SOUND EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1000 AM
FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...
CAUSING THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL
OFFSHORE. SCA FLAGS SHOULD END FOR BAY/LOWER JAMES/SOUND BY 1000 AM.
WIND GUSTS DROP BELOW 25KT BY 1000 AM HOWEVER SEAS WILL LINGER
AROUND 5FT UNTIL THE AFTN...DROPPING BELOW 5FT NRN COASTAL WATERS
BY EARLY AFTN AND THEN SRN COASTAL WATERS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE E-SE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW-W LATE TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NWD ACROSS THE WATERS MON AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME MORE SLY
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASE TO 20-25KT ALL WATERS LATE MON
EVENING (EXCEPT 15-20KT ERN VA RIVERS) WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME...SEAS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES
BAY). SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. A MUCH
WEAKER WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NRN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS OTHER THAN WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST AOB 15KT. SEAS POSSIBLY REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THU UNTIL A MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD OVER THE
AREA THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW...BUT NO LOW WATER ADVISORY NECESSARY FOR
AKQ WATERS WITH MIN LEVELS GENLY TO AROUND -0.5 FT MLLW AT LOW
TIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ048-060>062-069-509-510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ075>078-081>083-085-087>090-518>522.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ064>068-079-080-511>517.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BMD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
417 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

MDZ021>025-VAZ099-150930-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
ACCOMACK-
417 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW IN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN ON MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ084-086-092-093-095>098-100-523>525-150930-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-GLOUCESTER-MATHEWS-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-NORTHAMPTON VA-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
417 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH
HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND TEN ABOVE THIS
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW IN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN ON MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS EVEN POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ048-060>062-069-509-510-150930-
FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-POWHATAN-WESTERN LOUISA-
EASTERN LOUISA-
417 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ064>068-079-080-511>517-150930-
CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-
WESTERN HANOVER-EASTERN HANOVER-WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-
EASTERN CHESTERFIELD-WESTERN HENRICO-EASTERN HENRICO-
WESTERN KING WILLIAM-
417 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM
EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ075>078-085-521-522-150930-
WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
417 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM
EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ081>083-087>090-518>520-150930-
PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
JAMES CITY-EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-
EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-
417 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM
EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.