Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Wakefield, VA

June 16, 20167 counties in Virginia

NWS Wakefield, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 16, 2016, 9:15 PM EDT for 7 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 45 min. 33 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jun 16, 2016, 9:15 PM EDT (01:15 UTC)
Expired
Jun 16, 2016, 10:00 PM EDT
In force
45 min
Issued by
NWS Wakefield, VA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.25 in
Wind
70.0 mph

Counties Chesterfield County, VA, City of Richmond, VA, Goochland County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Powhatan County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jun 16, 9:27 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG2 Sw Centerville, VANUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN MANAKIN-SABOT. DOZENS OF TREES DOWN ALONG FOREST MEADOW LANE. OVER 6 TREES DOWN BLOCKING MILLERS LANE.
Jun 16, 9:27 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG2 Wsw Centerville, VANUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN MANAKIN-SABOT. DOZENS OF TREES DOWN ALONG FOREST MEADOW LANE. OVER 6 TREES DOWN BLOCKING MILLERS LANE.
Jun 16, 9:30 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG2 Wsw Dumbarton, VANUMEROUS TREE BRANCHES BLOCKING FORT HILL DRIVE.
Jun 16, 9:30 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGEast Highland Park, VASEVERAL TREES DOWN. POWER OUTAGES.
Jun 16, 9:30 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGMaidens, VATREE DOWN BLOCKING ROUTE 522 NEAR THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE.
Jun 16, 9:36 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG2 Se Short Pump, VANUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG WESTEK DRIVE.
Jun 16, 9:36 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGGlen Allen, VANUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED IN GLEN ALLEN. .
Jun 16, 9:36 PM EDTTSTM WND GST 60Tuckahoe, VA
Jun 16, 9:40 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG1 Ssw Dumbarton, VALIBBIE AVE. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF TORNADO.
Jun 16, 9:40 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGLakeside, VANUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND THE LAKESIDE AREA.
Jun 16, 9:40 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGWesthampton, VALIBBIE AVE. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF TORNADO.
Jun 16, 9:41 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG1 Nne Solomons Store, VATREE BLOCKING I-95 SOUTHBOUND AT EXIT 84.
Jun 16, 9:43 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG1 Se Atlee, VASEVERAL LARGE TREES BLOCKING ATLEE AND STUDLEY ROADS IN HANOVER COUNTY.
Jun 16, 9:44 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG3 E Short Pump, VANUMEROUS TREE BRANCHES DOWN. APARTMENT COMPLEX PLAYGROUND EQUIPMENT BLOWN OVER IN VICINITY OF HUNGARY ROAD AND SPRINGFIELD ROAD. ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 60 MPH. .
Jun 16, 9:45 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG1 Ne Sandston, VASEVERAL TREES DOWNED AND SPLIT NEAR I-64 AND I-295.
Jun 16, 9:45 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG1 Nne Tuckahoe, VATREE BLOCKING ROAD AT MAPLEWAY ROAD AND CAMROSE ROAD.
Jun 16, 9:45 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG1 Nne Tuckahoe, VATREE DOWNED ON QUIOCCASIN ROAD NEAR SHANE ROAD.
Jun 16, 9:45 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGDumbarton, VALARGE TREE LIMBS DOWNED. ESTIMATED GUSTS OF 60 MPH.
Jun 16, 9:50 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG2 Nne Downtown Richmond, VATREE DOWNED ON A CAR AT THE INTERSECTION OF PARK AVE AND LAMBARDY ST. .
Jun 16, 9:50 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG2 Nne Downtown Richmond, VANUMEROUS TREES DOWN VICINITY OF JOHN MARSHALL HIGH SCHOOL.
Jun 16, 9:50 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG2 Nne Sandston, VANUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWNED. ONE LARGE TREE FELL ON THREE CARS CAUSING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. .
Jun 16, 9:50 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG3 E Mechanicsville, VALARGE TREES DOWNED. FRONT GLASS DOOR BLOWN OUT ON HOME. .
Jun 16, 9:50 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGRichmond, VANUMEROUS TREES DOWN VICINITY OF JOHN MARSHALL HIGH SCHOOL
Jun 16, 9:51 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG2 Wsw Dumbarton, VATREES DOWN ON MONUMENT AVENUE AND HORSEPEN ROAD.
Jun 16, 9:52 PM EDTTSTM WND GST 60Richmond International, VA.
Jun 16, 9:54 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG3 E Mechanicsville, VATREE ON CAR ON REUNION DRIVE.
Jun 16, 9:55 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG3 Ne Richmond, VAA ROOF WAS PARTIALLY PEELED OFF OF A BUILDING AT THE PAPER ON COMMERCE ROAD. .
Jun 16, 9:55 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGLakeside, VASEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR 64 AND I 95
Jun 16, 9:55 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGLakeside, VASEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR 64 AND I 95.
Jun 16, 10:00 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG2 E Downtown Richmond, VAMULTIPLE TREES SNAPPED, LANDING ON POWER LINES. .
Jun 16, 10:00 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGSandston, VANUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED IN SANDSTON. ONE TREE DOWNED ON A HOME. .
Jun 16, 10:00 PM EDTTSTM WND GST 671 Wnw Meadowville, VA.
Jun 16, 10:05 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGBottoms Bridge, VATREE BLOCKING THE ON RAMP TO INTERSTATE 64 AT NEW KENT HIGHWAY.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 32 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 12 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jun 16, 8:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 00:00Z on 2016-06-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 876 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 00:00Z on 2016-06-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 6 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
876 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
797 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
74 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

709 
WUUS51 KAKQ 170115
SVRAKQ
VAC041-075-085-087-127-145-760-170200-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.SV.W.0056.160617T0115Z-160617T0200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
915 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN GOOCHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  HENRICO COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  NORTHWESTERN NEW KENT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  POWHATAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  THE CITY OF RICHMOND IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHERN HANOVER COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

* AT 915 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR BUMPASS TO GOOCHLAND TO NEAR TRENHOLM...MOVING
  SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
           ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  OILVILLE AROUND 920 PM EDT. 
  SABOT AROUND 925 PM EDT. 
  TUCKAHOE...MANAKIN AND WYNDHAM AROUND 930 PM EDT. 
  RICHMOND...UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND...BON AIR...LAKESIDE AND LAUREL 
  AROUND 940 PM EDT. 
  VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH UNIVERSITY...DOWNTOWN RICHMOND...VIRGINIA 
  UNION UNIVERSITY AND EAST HIGHLAND PARK AROUND 945 PM EDT. 
  HIGHLAND SPRINGS...BENSLEY AND BELLWOOD AROUND 950 PM EDT. 
  TUNSTALL AND CHESTERFIELD COURT HOUSE AROUND 955 PM EDT. 
  CHESTER AROUND 1000 PM EDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
CROZIER...CHESTERFIELD...MICHAUX...JEFFERSON...ORAPAX FARMS...GOODWINS
STORE...ROCKVILLE...SOLOMONS STORE...MAIDENS AND IRWIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL AND OR WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING
TREES OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED...BY CALLING NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD AT
...7 5 7...8 9 9...2 4 1 5.
&&

LAT...LON 3763 7809 3770 7799 3776 7786 3775 7783
      3773 7780 3777 7778 3761 7710 3731 7739
      3758 7810
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 296DEG 45KT 3791 7768 3771 7787 3755 7813 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

JM
1 follow-up statement
410 
WWUS51 KAKQ 170150
SVSAKQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
950 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

VAC075-145-170159-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-160617T0200Z/
GOOCHLAND VA-POWHATAN VA-
950 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN GOOCHLAND AND
POWHATAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3758 7751 3769 7741 3761 7710 3731 7739
      3744 7774 3748 7778
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 300DEG 156KT 3777 7722 3752 7739 3742 7765 

$$

VAC041-085-087-127-760-170200-
/O.CON.KAKQ.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-160617T0200Z/
HENRICO VA-NEW KENT VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-CITY OF RICHMOND VA-
HANOVER VA-
950 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR HENRICO...NORTHWESTERN NEW KENT...CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD AND
SOUTHEASTERN HANOVER COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF RICHMOND...

AT 949 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANGOHICK TO NEAR EAST HIGHLAND PARK TO 6 MILES
EAST OF MOSELEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 180 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER HENRICO...NORTHWESTERN
NEW KENT...CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD AND SOUTHEASTERN HANOVER COUNTIES
AND THE CITY OF RICHMOND...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:
RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL...CHESTERFIELD...ORAPAX
FARMS...WESTWOOD...DREWRYS BLUFF...ATLEE...FAIR OAKS...VARINA...
CHAMBERLAYNE AND RICHMOND HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL AND OR WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING
TREES OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED...BY CALLING NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD AT
...7 5 7...8 9 9...2 4 1 5.&&

LAT...LON 3758 7751 3769 7741 3761 7710 3731 7739
      3744 7774 3748 7778
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 300DEG 156KT 3777 7722 3752 7739 3742 7765 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

JM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 16, 7:53 PM EDT, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 7:53 PM EDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
753 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure drops through the Mid Atlantic Region tonight...and
stalls over the Outer Banks Friday. Low pressure then remains off
the Southeast Coast through the weekend as cool high pressure
builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Showers with isolated thunderstorms this morning have quelled the
potential for scattered convection this aftn despite re-development
of cumulus clouds. Based on visible satellite imagery trends, it
appears that the best chance for seabreeze-based airmass
thunderstorms will be south of Albemarle Sound the rest of the
aftn. Farther north near a warm frontal boundary across the Nrn
Neck and Delmarva, cumulus cloud trends (again via visible
satellite) are showing signs of dissipating/weakening within the
post-convective and stable environment.

So this turns our attention to potentially severe thunderstorms
tonight as a low pressure system over ern OH/wrn PA dives ssewd
into the Mid Atlantic Region after 00Z/800 PM this evening and
crosses the area overnight. Per previous discussion issued at
1200 PM EDT, area of outflow located near the triple point low in
OH this aftn has been producing severe thunderstorms...with more
isolated pockets of severe storms along the warm frontal boundary
extending from roughly Pittsburgh to Washington DC to the
Delmarva. Scattered storms are traversing the mts of far nw VA
just south of this boundary. Will need to keep a close eye on
these nearby storms to see if they are able to hold together once
they move off the terrain in light low-level low. Otherwise, the
ongoing forecast is right on track with few changes necessary
other than trying to add finer details into the next 12 hours.

Overall, the main player regarding severe weather potential later
this evening remains the ern OH low that is expected to morph into
an MCS during the evening and overnight hours. Best focus for
severe weather begins across far nwrn counties this evening from
Farmville to the Nrn Neck (including nw half of the Metro Richmond
area) and then spreads esewd overnight (primarily across the rest
of VA and the MD Lower Ern Shore). Deep atmospheric moisture, a
spike in pwats twd 2.00 inches, plenty of deep omega/lift with the
passing low/cold front, a strengthening theta-e ridge as it
crosses the area, and increasing winds with height which are also
increasing through tonight will all contribute the severe weather
potential for tonight. Generally unidirectional winds suggest that
bowing line segments will be the primary storm structure this
evening. Really ramped up 6hr qpf amounts for tonight with most
locations within likely POPs or higher (>= 60%) receiving anywhere
from 0.25 to 1.0 inches, or 0.50 to 1.50 inches in 12 hrs, or 0.75
to almost 2.00 inches in 24 hrs. These amounts are above most
model guidance. Locally higher amounts of rainfall are definitely
possible in a shorter period of time and may cause travel
difficulties at times. In addition to the above parameters (to
name a few), the primary impacts from thunderstorms tonight will
be heavy rainfall and strong to severe wind gusts. Large hail will
be a secondary impact. SPC has maintained an Enhanced Risk area
across far nwrn counties for tonight with decreasing likelihood
the farther southeast you go across the CWA. The issuance of a
severe thunderstorm watch is not out of the question within the
next few hours for the local area...especially the locations
mentioned above. Please be alert to rapidly changing conditions if
you have plans this evening...particularly anything that takes
place outdoors. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued, be
sure to seek safe shelter indoors until the storm passes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Potent shortwave drops into ern NC Fri as the associated sfc low
centers just off the NC coast. Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions
are expected along with height/thickness falls...resulting in very
little warming during the day. While little destabilization is
expected, strong forcing for ascent (shortwave and a departing
100+ kt upper jet) will still support widespread showers. A few
thunderstorms possible across the southeast forecast area, where
guidance indicates slightly better instability in a dynamic
environment. Small diurnal trend forecast with temps only warming
into the mid to upper 70s (-2 std dev); low 80s NE NC. Northeast
winds increase Fri aftn into Fri night as the sfc pressure
gradient strengthens between the low and cool high pressure
building swd along the coast of the NE CONUS. Expect gusts of
20 to 30 mph along the coast from Ches Bay to the Atlantic. Winds
could gust as high as 40 mph along the Atlantic coast. Strong
mixing will keep lows Fri night in the upper 50s to low 60s
despite a strong push of cold air advection. Showers will begin
to push se and offshore Fri night...drying from nw to se.

Dry conditions and a mostly sunny Sat/Sun as cool high pressure
builds in from the north. Breezy northeast winds persist with
highs both days only warming into the upper 70s to around
80 inland. Cooler SE VA/NE NC and coastal areas with highs only
in the low to mid 70s. The highs would be around 2 std dev below
normal. Lows Sat night in the mid to upper 50s inland and lower
60s immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The medium range guidance shows a broad ridge extending from coast
to coast on Monday with building heights across the area. This
should allow for a general dry and warming trend for next week
once the western Atlc upper trough moves east. The next chance for
rain will likely be Tuesday into Tuesday night generally across
the MD eastern shore as the ECMWF and GFS suggest a weak trough
axis to move through the NE states in the NW flow aloft. Some
differences then next Wednesday regarding the evolution of trough
as the ECMWF is stronger and move progressive compared to the GFS.
This difference will not change the sensible weather a great deal
with chances for showers/storms across the entire region
regardless of solution as heights fall through the day.

After Sunday, temperatures will be above normal for the week with
highs likely in the lower 90s each day, except perhaps Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stationary front continues across eastern Virginia this evening.
A strong area of tstms is riding the bndry from WVA to northern
Md and southern Pa. A few storms have developed across northern VA
this evening to near our CWA border. The upper level Low
associated with the system will slowly move east during the
overnight. Most of the weather for the CWA is likely to happen
after midnight as a big complex of showers and tstms moves slowly
eastward.

Have included SHRA and VCTS wording in the TAFS but most of this
is likely to occur late. Some storms may contain strong gusty
winds, with a transition to primarily periods of heavy rain after
06z. Winds shift to NE-E all areas overnight, with IFR and
possibly some LIFR conditions possible Fri morning, though extent
of this is still uncertain. Due to onshore flow contg/increasing
late Fri morning/aftn...CIGS may lift slightly and may be in MVFR
cat. Sfc lo pres lingers off the SE cst through the weekend with
high pressure building in from the north. Gusty NE winds to 20-30
kt likely alg cstl sections from late Fri through Sat, though
drier wx and VFR conditions will prevail by that time. Models hint
that the offshore system may try to push closer to the coast by
late Sunday/Mon, possibly to affect ORF/ECG, less likely to reach
inland sites.

&&

.MARINE...
The current headlines and wind forecast looks on track
for the marine areas. Will upgrade the gale watch north of
Wachapreague to a SCA with this issuance as the strongest winds look
to stay just south, focusing south of Parramore.

Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move across VA and just
offshore by Friday morning. This will allow for a core of strong NE
winds to gale force to develop along the north side of the low
Friday morning and move southward during the day and Friday evening.
Expect the strongest winds to generally be short lived (less than 9
hr). The gales should shift to the NC waters friday night then
subside as the low continues to move off the southeast coast. Expect
SCA conditions to persist most likely into Saturday especailly
across the southern waters. This low will mander off the SE and
middle atlantic coast through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The NE flow Friday into Saturday will allow tidal anomalies to
increase to as high as 1.5 ft above astronomical tide...allowing a
few tidal site across the lower Chesapeake Bay and James River to
minor flooding for a few high tide cycles starting Friday Night and
continuing into Saturday evening. Despite the winds gusting to close
to gale force Friday into Friday evening...the limiting factor for
more significant flooding will be the short time frame for stronger
winds. A few spots may need Coastal Flood Advisories for the high
tide cycle Friday evening.

In addition...dangerous surf is expected with waves close to 8 ft
Friday afternoon into Friday evening, especailly south of Parramore.
Will go ahead and issue a high surf advisory for Friday into Friday
evening for those areas.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...High Surf Advisory from noon Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
     NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory from noon Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
     VAZ098-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to noon EDT Saturday
     for ANZ635>638.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634-
     656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 PM EDT Saturday
     for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to noon EDT Saturday for
     ANZ630-631.
     Gale Warning from noon Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to noon EDT Saturday for
     ANZ650-652.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD/SAM
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...LKB/JEF
MARINE...MRD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 4:26 PM EDT, 4 hours 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
426 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ092-093-096-097-172030-
NORTHAMPTON-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-BERTIE-CHOWAN-
PERQUIMANS-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
426 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ017-102-VAZ095-098-172030-
WESTERN CURRITUCK-EASTERN CURRITUCK-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
VIRGINIA BEACH-
426 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-172030-
MARYLAND BEACHES-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON-
426 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...EASTERN
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ048-061-062-064-068-069-509>516-172030-
FLUVANNA-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-AMELIA-POWHATAN-
WESTERN LOUISA-EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER-EASTERN HANOVER-
WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-EASTERN CHESTERFIELD (INCLUDING COL. HEIGHTS)-
WESTERN HENRICO (INCLUDING THE CITY OF RICHMOND)-EASTERN HENRICO-
426 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MDZ021>024-VAZ060-065>067-075>090-517>525-172030-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-PRINCE EDWARD-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-
LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-
WESTERN KING WILLIAM-EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-
EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-
HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
426 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 5:13 PM EDT, 4 hours 2 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
513 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

VAZ064-511-162200-
CAROLINE-WESTERN HANOVER-
513 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CAROLINE COUNTY...

AT 512 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FREDERICKSBURG...
MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWLING GREEN...MILFORD...LADYSMITH...CEDAR FORK...BEAVERDAM...CHILESBURG...
WOODFORD...GOLANSVILLE...PENOLA...CEDON...HEWLETT...GUINEA...NANCY WRIGHTS
CORNER...RUTHER GLEN...VILLBORO AND CORBIN.

STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THESE WIND GUSTS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS...SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES...AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM.
SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3793 7726 3792 7766 3800 7767 3799 7764
      3822 7740
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 345DEG 30KT 3831 7757

JFOSTER
Special weather statement, Jun 16, 6:16 PM EDT, 2 hours 59 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
616 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

VAZ064-162300-
CAROLINE-
616 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL CAROLINE COUNTY...

AT 615 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LADYSMITH...OR
NEAR MILFORD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILFORD...LADYSMITH...GOLANSVILLE...PENOLA AND CEDON.

STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THESE WIND GUSTS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS...SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES...AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 3809 7738 3793 7731 3791 7752 3792 7753
      3807 7755
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 349DEG 9KT 3802 7747

JM
Local storm report, Jun 16, 9:08 PM EDT, 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
908 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             LADYSMITH               38.02N  77.52W
06/16/2016  E2.00 INCH       CAROLINE           VA   PUBLIC

            1.5 TO 2 INCH HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1600658

JEF
Local storm report, Jun 16, 9:12 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
912 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PALMYRA                 37.86N  78.26W
06/16/2016                   FLUVANNA           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROUTE 640

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1600659

JEF
Local storm report, Jun 16, 9:13 PM EDT, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
913 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             RUTHER GLEN             38.00N  77.54W
06/16/2016  E1.00 INCH       CAROLINE           VA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1600660

JEF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wakefield, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 16, 8:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQFluvanna, Goochland, Louisa49 min
Jun 16, 8:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCaroline, Hanover48 min
Jun 16, 8:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCumberland, Fluvanna, Goochland52 min
Jun 16, 8:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCaroline, Essex, Fluvanna, Goochland, Hanover, King William and 2 more50 min
Jun 16, 8:57 PM EDTTornado WarningAKQCaroline, Hanover33 min
Jun 16, 9:25 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningAKQCaroline, Hanover4 hr
Jun 16, 9:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCaroline, Essex, Hanover, King and Queen, King William, Lancaster and 4 more53 min
Jun 16, 9:45 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAKQ2 hr
Jun 16, 9:46 PM EDTTornado WarningAKQCharles City, Hanover, Henrico, New Kent, City of Richmond29 min
Jun 16, 9:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCharles City, Chesterfield, Gloucester, Hanover, Henrico, James City and 4 more47 min
Jun 16, 10:14 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAKQ2 hr
Jun 16, 10:18 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQAmelia, Chesterfield, Cumberland57 min
Jun 16, 10:22 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQAmelia, Charles City, Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, James City, Prince George and 4 more23 min
Jun 16, 10:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCharles City, Chesterfield, Essex, Gloucester, Henrico, James City and 11 more62 min
Jun 16, 10:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQAmelia, Cumberland, Nottoway41 min
Jun 16, 10:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCharles City, Dinwiddie, James City, Prince George, Surry, Sussex and 6 more44 min
Jun 16, 10:55 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAKQAmelia, Chesterfield, Cumberland, Goochland, Henrico, Powhatan and 4 more3 hr
Jun 16, 10:59 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQBrunswick, Dinwiddie, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway61 min
Jun 16, 11:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQAmelia, Dinwiddie, Nottoway28 min
Jun 16, 11:25 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQGloucester, Isle of Wight, Lancaster, Mathews, Surry, York and 8 more50 min
Jun 16, 11:54 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQBrunswick, Greensville, City of Emporia51 min
Jun 16, 11:57 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQSouthampton, Sussex, City of Franklin48 min
Jun 17, 3:30 PM EDTCoastal Flood StatementAKQGloucester, James City, Mathews, Northampton, York, City of Hampton and 3 more9 hr
Jun 17, 3:30 PM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryAKQSurry, City of Chesapeake, City of Virginia Beach10 hr
Jun 17, 6:50 PM EDTBeach Hazards StatementAKQCity of Virginia Beach25 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2016Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.