Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
407 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT LOW WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONGOING SVR WX ACRS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN...AS TORNADO WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENG. AT 20Z/24...STRONG LO
PRES WAS LOCATED OVR CNTRL OH...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWRD
THRU EXTRM SW VA...WRN NC...AND INTO CNTRL SC. RDR INDICATED ONE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVNG THRU CNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES...WITH
A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST W OF CHO...FVX...RDU
LINE. THE FIRST AREA OF PCPN WILL MOVE ENE AND SHOULD PUSH OFF THE
CST BY ARND 7 PM...WITH THE SECONDARY LINE OF TSTMS MOVING EWRD
ACRS THE AREA FM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...PUSHING OFF THE
CST JUST AFTR 10 PM. DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. PCPN WILL END AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE CST TNGT INTO EARLY THU MORNG. DRYING/GUSTY SWLY WINDS
WILL TAKE OVR BEHIND THE FRNT TNGT INTO EARLY THU MORNG...WITH THE
SKY RANGING FM MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY/COOL WX RETURNS FOR THU THRU SAT...WITH THE WARMEST DAY BEING
ON THU. BREEZY/WINDY THU...MOSTLY CLOUDY N AND PARTLY SUNNY S WITH
HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 50S. A SECONDARY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE
AREA THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG...BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLDS AND A RE-
INFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR. LOWS THU NGT IN THE 30S. TURNING OUT
MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD THE AREA FM THE W.
HI TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 40S. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL SLIDE
ACRS THE GULF CST STATES FRI NGT THRU SAT. ALOFT...A WEAK TROF
WILL SLIDE ACRS THE REGION AND OFF THE CST LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT
AFTN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE MAINTAIN
A DRY AIRMASS OVR THE REGION. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING THRU THE
20S...WITH HIGHS ON SAT IN THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY NW ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES OVR THE
SOUTHERN STATES RESULTS IN MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT / TROF CROSSES REGION LATE MONDAY WITH ONLY
SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN HALF OF FA. HIGH PRS REBUILDS INTO THE
REGION TUE BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NITE. WARM FRNT
ASSCTD WITH THE NEXT SYSTM ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION LIFTS
WELL NORTH OF THE FA WED.

HIGHS SUN / MON 60-65 XCPT 55-60 COASTAL AREAS. LOWS IN THE 40S.
HIGHS TUE / WED 55-60 XCPT 45-50 COASTAL AREAS. LOWS M30S-L40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING NE. A WARM FRONT
MOVED THRU THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN AND WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED
CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT. WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED ON THU BUT STRONG WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
30-35 KT EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE LOW
PRES SYS MOVES NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE FRONT IS FAR
OFFSHORE. CONTINUED VFR ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG ~985MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SW OHIO THIS AFTN WILL LIFT NE
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND ERN CANADA OVERNIGHT.

NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES W/ THIS ISSUANCE AS GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE
THROUGH 1 AM TO 4 AM ACRS THE BAY/OCEAN/SOUND...WITH HIGH END
SCA'S ELSEWHERE. WINDS GENLY BELOW GALES AS OF 2 PM...BUT EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS LATE AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AND PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE OFF TO OUR NW. SEAS CURRENTLY AVG 6-8
FT...AND WILL BUILD TO 8-13 FT...HIGHEST NORTH. WE MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS (NEARSHORE WAVES ~8 FT) ALONG THE EASTERN
SHORE BEACHES FOR A SHORT PERIOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ATTM.

LOCALLY HIGHER/SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EVENING (AND WILL HANDLE THESE WITH SMW'S AS NEEDED). SCAS FOR THE
RIVERS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH THU NIGHT/11Z FRI AM.
ELSEWHERE...GALES WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED WITH SCA'S THU...AND
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI ACRS NRN COASTAL WATERS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THU MORNING FOR BAY
SIDE OF MD ERN SHORE WHERE TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE RISEN TO 1.5-2.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT TIDE EARLY THU MORNING MAY ALSO PUSH MINOR
FLOODING FOR THE NRN NECK SO MAY ISSUE THERE IN A FEW HRS AS WELL.

A STRONG WESTERLY WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN
BLOW- OUT TIDES BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
732 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

VAZ075>078-084>086-099-100-260045-
WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-
MATHEWS-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
732 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...TORNADO WATCH 27 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHERN NECK
OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ093-095>098-523>525-260045-
ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
732 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...TORNADO WATCH 27 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ013>017-030>032-102-260045-
HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-
PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
732 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...TORNADO WATCH 29 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012-260045-
NORTHAMPTON NC-
732 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...TORNADO WATCH 29 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ064-079>083-087>090-092-511>522-260045-
CAROLINE-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-SOUTHAMPTON-WESTERN HANOVER-
EASTERN HANOVER-WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-EASTERN CHESTERFIELD-
WESTERN HENRICO-EASTERN HENRICO-WESTERN KING WILLIAM-
EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
732 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...TORNADO WATCH 27 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ048-060>062-065>069-509-510-260045-
FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-WESTERN LOUISA-EASTERN LOUISA-
732 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ024-025-260045-
INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
732 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...TORNADO WATCH 27 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>023-260045-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-
732 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 27 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
753 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     IRWIN MANOR             37.28N  77.35W
02/24/2016                   PRINCE GEORGE      VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG RIVER ROAD NEAR IRWIN ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1600467

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
755 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FOREST ACRES            37.14N  77.35W
02/24/2016                   PRINCE GEORGE      VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG CRATER ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1600468

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
759 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TIMBERLY HEIGHTS        37.22N  77.35W
02/24/2016                   PRINCE GEORGE      VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG RIVER ROAD NEAR IRWIN ROAD

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1600467

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
807 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE KENNON             37.32N  76.98W
02/24/2016                   CHARLES CITY       VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ACROSS TELEPHONE LINE ALONG CAPITAL TRAIL
            EAST OF CHARLES CITY CH

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1600469

LALEXAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
831 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUFFOLK                 36.73N  76.58W
02/24/2016                   CITY OF SUFFOLK    VA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS SUFFOLK

&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1600470

JO

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