Freeze Warning 3, NWS Wakefield, VA

Northampton County, NC, Amelia County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Sussex County, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1019 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north this afternoon...then
settles over the area tonight. The high will become centered
south of the local area on Tuesday. A cold front crosses the
region on Wednesday...then high pressure returns late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current analysis indicating strong/1033 mb surface high pressure
centered over Maryland with low pressure well off the mid-atlc
coast. NNW flow prevails aloft. NNE winds at the sfc will average
around 10 mph inland with gusts to 20-25 mph near the coast
through midday/early afternoon. With the low level flow being NNE
(no downslope warming), have lowered highs today by about 1-3 F
despite full sunshine. This will yields highs from the mi-upper
50s in the MD eastern shore to the lower 60s across south central
VA and interior northeast NC. Maintained a small area of partly
cloudy conditions near the coast...mainly from Va Beach to
Currituck NC due to cool onshore flow over the relatively warm
waters.

Models remain in good agreement tonight...w/ the sfc hi centered
over the local area. Over the past several nights, MOS numbers
have been too warm by about 2-4 F on average, so expect
widespread lows inland in the 30s, with the typically colder
locations potentially falling to 32 F or slightly colder. Dewpoints
(inland) are forecast to be from 30-35F...and will need to
consider frost/freeze headlines for portions of the CWA with the
aftn package. Given expected winds near calm and dewpoints near
freezing (inland)...a freeze appears to be a higher prob at this
point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The high then shifts S of the local area on Tue...w/ a return SW
flow in the low levels. After a chilly start...highs Tue rebound
into the m-u60s (rather shallow mixing being the limiting factor
keeping it from getting into the 70s). Not as cool Tue night as SW
flow continues ahead of an approaching cold front from the NW.

00z/07 NAM/GFS/ECMWF trending higher w/ clouds and PoPs by Wed
(W-E) as s/w aloft and sfc lo pres cross the FA. Raised PoPs by
about 20% most places (lowest invof NE NC). Nudged temps down Wed
based on guidance...highs in the l-m60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expecting mainly dry wx conditions fm later Wed night thru Sun,
as a dry W, NW, or N flow dominates. Near normal temps expected
Thu thru Fri, then below normal temps for Sat and Sun. Have pops
at 10% or less for Wed night thru Sun. Highs Thu and Fri in the
60s, and in the 50s on Sat and Sun. Lows in the 40s Wed ngt and
Thu ngt, in the upper 30s to mid 40s Fri ngt, and in the mid 30s
to lower 40s Sat ngt.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad area of sfc hi pres centered from the ern Great Lakes
through the St Lawrence Valley will gradually build into and
settle into the Mid-Atlantic region through Tue. The NNE winds
average 6-12kt...and locally gusting up to 20kt along the coast
through mid-aftn today. The sky will be mostly clear...w/ the
exception of some SCT cu along/near the VA/NC coast early this
morning through midday/early aftn. Hi pres moves s of the area
Tues...w/ the wind shifting to sw...while the sky remains mostly
clear. A cold front will cross the area Wed will bring more cloud
cover and the potential for at least sct shras although mainly vfr
conditions should prevail. Hi pres returns Thu w/ a cold front
approaching from the NW Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA headlines continue across the Bay/Sound/Ocean/Lwr James River in
association with caa behind a cold front dropping farther south of
the area. Winds will mainly be 15-20 kt, with 25 kt psbl over
coastal waters where the sca is mainly for 5-6 ft seas, up to 7 ft
over southern coastal waters. Winds will slowly subside through the
day with headlines ending this aftn over the Lwr James, Bay, and
Sound. Sfc hi pres remains over the Mid Atlc tngt into Tue with
winds relaxing. SCA conditions will continue over all coastal waters
thru at least Tue due to higher seas from swells. A cold front
crosses the region Wed, with SCA conditions likely behind the
front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...MAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
358 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-080900-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-
LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-WESTERN LOUISA-EASTERN LOUISA-
WESTERN HANOVER-EASTERN HANOVER-WESTERN CHESTERFIELD-
EASTERN CHESTERFIELD-WESTERN HENRICO-EASTERN HENRICO-
WESTERN KING WILLIAM-EASTERN KING WILLIAM-WESTERN KING AND QUEEN-
EASTERN KING AND QUEEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS-
HAMPTON/POQUOSON-
358 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.