Storm Warning 48, NWS Juneau, AK

891 
FZAK67 PAJK 100008
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-101400-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE FRONT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL APPROACH
THE PANHANDLE WED NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF LATE WED NIGHT AND THU
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS SE AK THU. 

$$

PKZ310-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2016 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT LATE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 22 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

419 
FZAK67 PAJK 101221
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-110100-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A GALE FORCE LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-110100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2016 

...STORM WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRI...S GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
319 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...A strong low pressure trough will move N through
the E gulf tonight and move onshore the NE gulf coast Wed morning.
A strong low will develop and move N toward the SW gulf Wed, while
a strong occluded front moves N into the E gulf Wed afternoon.
Models were in fairly good agreement on the main features, and
ended up using the 12z NAM to handle things for tonight and Wed.
This slowed the trough moving N tonight and sped up front moving
in Wed.

Main forecast concerns will be winds and TSTM potential. Strongest
winds tonight will be near the trough moving N, and gale force
S-SE winds are expected with it over much of the E gulf tonight.
Some of these gales will affect the S inner channels as well
tonight, with most of the remaining channels seeing 25-30 KT winds.
Over the far N inner channels, pressure gradient should turn
enough for a period of 10-15 KT N winds to develop this evening,
then they should shift back to SE at 20-25 KT late tonight or
early Wed as trough moves past the area. After somewhat of a lull
in the winds Wed morning, the approaching occluded front will
increase winds to 40-50 KT over much of the E gulf and 30-45 KT
for a good part of the inner channels during Wed afternoon. The
far N channels will once again flip back to N winds with 10-20 Kt
likely by late afternoon. Based on location and strength of low
level jet at 00z Thu, the start time of the high wind watch was
pushed back 3 hrs to Wed evening.

TSTMS are occurring over much of the E gulf and a decent part of
the inner channels as vort lobes push through the area. Most of
the activity is over the far E gulf along channel of maximum
instability and strongest vort features. As the strong trough
lifts N, warming aloft behind it will diminish the TSTM threat
from the S tonight. Then on Wed, some TSTMS may develop in post-
frontal environment over the S-central gulf.

Otherwise, showers will continue over much of the area tonight
with the trough moving N. A diminishing trend in the showers is
likely late tonight and Wed morning, but they will increase again
as dynamics associated with the occluded front enhance lift in a
shallow convective layer in the lower levels. Steadier rain will
likely reach the outer coast late in the day Wed.

.LONG TERM...Extended range period begins with a good potential
for heavy snow along the haines highway and high winds along the
central & southern outer coast as well as the southern inner
channels. Delayed the high wind watch by three hours - now in
effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Apart from
the snow and wind potential, am expecting precipitation to be
heavy at times across much of the panhandle as this first front
moves in...and then again on Friday with the next front. A third
front Saturday night does not look like heavy precip will be as
likely, but the fourth one on Sunday night may have heavy precip
for the southern panhandle. Suffice to say that the extended range
forecast will be quite active.

Temperatures trend down through the week, but with the snow level
as highways it is, believe the only significant threat of snow
will be at higher elevations along the highways.

Storm force winds over the eastern gulf early on will build seas
to more than 25 feet Wednesday night. Southwesterly swell will be
90 degrees off the strongest winds, so waves will be somewhat
steeper than they would normally be. Combined seas expected to
remain above 12 feet over the gulf for all of the coming week.

Early portion of the extended range pressure and wind forecast
remains in good shape. Only change was to speed up the front
slightly Wednesday night...in coordination with the short term
forecaster. Updated PoP and QPF early on with a blend of NAMDNG5,
SREF, and official. QPF from official and NAMDNG5 through Thursday
night, then GFS22 and ECMWF plus official. WPC for Sunday onward.
Overall forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     for AKZ023-027-028.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     morning for AKZ019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041-042.
     Gale Warning for PKZ033-034-036-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-035-053.
&&

RWT/Fritsch

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