Storm Warning 43, NWS Juneau, AK

120 
FZAK51 PAJK 222343
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-231400-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL MOVE INTO CANADA THU NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT SW WINDS TO 20 KT WILL BLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO THE OUTER COAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-231400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ012-231400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ013-231400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ021-231400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING SE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ022-231400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. S
SWELL IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-231400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ032-231400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT OR
LESS. 

$$

PKZ033-231400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ034-231400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
EVENING...THEN BECOMING W 15 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT
LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ035-231400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING...
THEN BECOMING W 15 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-231400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING...
THEN BECOMING NW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN IN
THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING
TO 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
559 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...The forecast remains to be in good shape from
previous forecast with minor changes in the first 24hrs. The
latest satellite imagery and observations show a storm force front
over the eastern gulf extending to the northwest towards Cape
Suckling. This strong is producing storm force winds along with
high seas heights from 20 to 25 feet over the gulf. There is an
area of hurricane force wind gusts near the fairweather grounds as
the front approaches the coast and the winds increase from a
barrier jet. At this time there is wind gusts to 45 mph and heavy
rain near Yakutat. The front will move into the inner channels by
the late morning and the winds and heavy rain near Yakutat and
over the gulf will begin to decrease. Showers will persist into
tonight near Yakutat with open cell showers moving west to east
across the gulf tonight. There is strong upper level forcing along
with significant amount of energy and instability that some of the
showers moving across the gulf may product some isolated lightning
late this afternoon into to night.

As the front pushes east this morning the winds over the inner
channels will continue to increase and spread southeast. The front
will produce gale force winds from the Icy Strait area southward
through Clarence Strait. The Cross Sound area will be a bit
strong winds from the east as the front approaches the coast and
winds will be min storm force. The winds will decrease behind the
front which will slide southeast through the late afternoon. The
strong land winds from a 70 kt llj at 925mb will spread gusts of
40 to 50 mph through the panhandle through today. By this evening
all of the strong winds will have decreased but with a ridge
building behind the front the winds over northern inner channels
will continue to see some gusty winds along with small craft
conditions over marine waters.

The heavy rain will not last as long as previous thought but will
still pack a punch. There will be high rainfall rates that will
range from .2 to .3 inches per hour. The heavy rain will last for
about 6 hours with amounts from near 2 to 3 inches over the
northern gulf coast area to about 1 to 2 inches over the rest of
the inner channels. This will cause small river to rise rapidly
but at this time there is no threat of minor flooding.

Showers will persist over the area through this evening but they
will become more scattered late tonight with the main upper level
trof lifting into Canada.

Overall there is above average forecaster confidence in the short
term period. The 00z ec,06z nam along with the hires models all
initialized well overnight and where changes were made use a mix
of those models.

.LONG TERM.../ Friday to Wednesday / Showers in the onshore flow
for Friday and Saturday across Southeast Alaska behind the
significant weather front on Thursday. Small bands of showers
under vorticity lobes combined with the colder air aloft is
resulting a slight chance of thunder from stronger showers over
the Gulf of Alaska and the outer coastal locations on Saturday.

A wave will develop in the north central pacific and move toward
the southern panhandle or Haida Gwaii Saturday night and early
Sunday and a second one on that appears a little better organized
at this time for Monday. These lows will bring stratiform rain
back to the southern panhandle and help suppress the showers for
the northern part of the forecast area. The models have some
timing and strength differences with both of the two systems.
further models runs will help to fine tune the location and
strength. Right now brought wind back up to small craft levels for
Clarence Strait Sunday for the southern panhandle.

Concentrated efforts this morning on the forecast into the
weekend and then merged to the longer range part of the forecast
that was in place. The general idea of the operational models fit
will with the long range guidance from yesterday. Forecast
Confidence is above average to the weekend and then below average
for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...The strong winds with the front moving through the
area is the biggest issue today with gusts to near 30 to 40 kt a
handful of the TAF sites today. Also an issue is that the low
level flow aloft is 60 to 80 kt from 2 to 5 thousand feet today,
that will result in some LLWS (low level wind shear) along with
turbulence near the terrain today. Early this morning the
Ketchikan had persisting low level clouds of 500 to 1000 feet.
They will be lifting by 10 am as winds pick up and the weather
front approaches.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ024-026-027.
     STRONG WIND until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ025.
     STRONG WIND until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ020>023.
     STRONG WIND from 10 AM AKDT this morning through this afternoon
     for AKZ028.
     STRONG WIND until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ022-042-043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ013-021-031>036-041-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-012.
&&

ABJ/Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
744 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
09/22/2016  M48.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

&&

JWA