Storm Warning 36, NWS Juneau, AK

735 
FZAK52 PAJK 301119
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-010100-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AS IT WEAKENS TONIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-010100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-010100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO
17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-010100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO
18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-010100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-010100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO
20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT.
SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

083 
FZAK52 PAJK 302306
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-011400-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE ALASKA AND STALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT N SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE N ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-011400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-011400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-011400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-011400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
S SWELL. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SW
SWELL. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-011400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
S SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
UPPER TROF. THIS TROF WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE STRONG
WITH SOME ICE PELLETS EMBEDDED. THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ON
THE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL AN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE IS A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT A
STORM FORCE FRONT INTO THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
SOME THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS BUT STILL PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM A BARRIER JET ENHANCEMENT. THE FRONT
WILL TAP INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WITH STRONG UPLIFT FROM
DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM THE 130KT JET AND A TROPOSPHERIC FOLD. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE IS OVER 200% PW VALUES AND RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE FRONT WILL BE RIGHT OVER SEAK BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO STALL.

WINDS OVER LAND WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ALONG WITH INCREASED 925MB WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE DAY
WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN OVER
ZONES 25,26,28 BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50
MPH.

THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FIRST
24HRS WITH NOT MANY BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. USED A MIX
OF THE NAM AND HIRES MODELS FOR ANY CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER THE SRN AREA SAT NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE WAVE ORGANIZES WELL TO THE S AND BEGINS TO HEAD N
TOWARD THE ERN GULF. THE WAVE WILL INTENSIFY AND HEAD THROUGH THE
ERN GULF AROUND SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BE FORCED BACK TO THE NW
OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN PUSH BACK
ONSHORE MON. THE FRONT MAY END UP GETTING HUNG UP AGAIN MON NIGHT
AND TUE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THIS AS WELL. LOOKS QUIETER FOR
MIDWEEK WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...THEN THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR LATE WEEK. MADE MOSTLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT MOST FOR SAT NIGHT-MON...THEN USED LATEST WPC FOR
MON NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR SAT NIGHT...PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GULF COAST IN THE DEEPER COLD
AIR. STEADIER RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA WITH
FRONT STALLED OUT. STILL COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
SE HALF OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DROP
OFF SOME AS UPPER SUPPORT GOES INLAND.

FOR SUN-MON...WITH LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING IN AND FRONT HEADING
BACK TO THE NW...THE STEADIER RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE N AND
IT WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MAY NEED TO BOOST
WINDS A BIT ON E SIDE OF THE WAVE BUT GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON IT DID NOT WANT TO ADJUST ATTM.

AFTER MON...LOOKS LIKE TRANSITION BACK TO SHOWERY WEATHER UNLESS
FRONT GETS HUNG UP AGAIN FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MIDWEEK...THEN MAY INCREASE FOR LATE WEEK AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
FAR E THIS WILL GET THOUGH BEFORE GETTING HELD UP.

&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT
AND SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. THEY WILL INCREASING TO
STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE BARRIER JET MENTIONED
ABOVE. CROSS SOUND WILL SEE THE SOUTH WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. THE INSIDE WATERS WILL SEE THE WINDS INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MAX GALES WILL
DEVELOP OVER CLARENCE STRAIT WITH 35 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE WATERS. THE REST OF THE N/S
CHANNELS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS. THERE WILL
BE A BIT MORE WIND IN E/W CHANNELS DUE TO THE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BEGIN TO RISE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. SEE
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
SITUATION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ025-026-028.
     STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023-027.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-034>036-041>043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>033-053.
&&

ABJ/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
241 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016

AKZ017>029-301400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...
JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...
KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
241 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016

...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE THIS
WEEKEND...

A STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY
BEFORE CONCENTRATING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL LIKELY RETURN
NORTHWARD...POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY. TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. CURRENT WATER LEVELS ARE LOW ON STREAMS AND RIVERS
IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA BUT SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS EVENT. EVEN THOUGH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ANY
THREAT OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE...AND POTENTIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL...AS A LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF. GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL IMPACT THE COAST WHILE
40 MPH GUSTS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE ON
SATURDAY.