Small Craft Advisory 95, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
507 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...950 MB LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN AK
GULF TOWARDS KODIAK WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STORM FORCE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WILL MOVE OVER THE AK PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY OVER THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
NICELY WRAPPED CLOUD SHIELD ABOVE THE OCCLUDED FRONT AROUND THE
LOW CENTER EXTENDING FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND DOWN TO THE
PACIFIC. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS DAYS SYSTEM THIS LOW IS CENTERED WILL
OFF SHORE SO PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MORE THERMAL. THUS STILL EXPECT THE
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING AND STRONG
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE, BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
GET MUCH HIGHER THAN 45 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE FRONT PASSES. BY TONIGHT MOST MARINE AREA WINDS WILL
HAVE DROPPED TO 30 KTS WITH OVERLAND WINDS WIND THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME DROPS IN WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PUSHING NORTH AS MOST
ENERGY ALONG THE FRONT IS ALOFT.

THIS FRONT IS ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN MAKER WITH LONG SOUTHERN FETCH
OF MOISTURE. 6 HOURS QPF VALUES EARLY TODAY IN THE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH
RANGE DROPPING OFF TO THE 0.25 RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
BROUGHT SURFACE TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVERNIGHT. MAX
TEMPS WILL PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING THEN REMAIN STEADY OR DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS, BESIDE BECOMING
VERTICALLY SATURATED EARLY TODAY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BOTH WINDS AND RAINFALL RATES
DIMINISHING TONIGHT BEGINNING THE TRANSITION TO A QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS
PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN. WITH THE HAINES BORDER ALREADY CLOSE TO
FREEZING SHOULD ONLY SEE A MIX OF SNOW RESULTING IN LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING AND WITH THE HEAVY PRECIP RATES KEEPING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT. THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES
WILL BE OFFSET BY THE SNOW BEING HEAVY AND WET THUS 12 HOUR SNOW
TOTALS ONLY IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

MODELS HAD FAIR INITIALIZATION THIS MORNING AND WERE IN LINE FOR
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM. 00Z NAM/ECMWF DID PICK UP ON A WAVE
CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND WERE USED TO UPDATE GRIDS. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...MOIST SSWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD /THU/ AS AN UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES OVER THE ERN BERING SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW SSE OF HAIDA
GWAII DURING FRI. THIS FEATURE REMAINS S OF THE
REGION...EVENTUALLY EXITING ESE TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND FRI NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BY SAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL YIELD A PATTERN
CHANGE FOR THE REGION...FAVORING DRIER WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FROM SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ022.
     STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ023.
     STRONG WIND UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM AKST THIS
     EVENING FOR AKZ018.
     STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-031-033>035-053.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-032.
&&

PRB/GARNER

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