Small Craft Advisory 91, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
950 PM AKST MON JAN 25 2016

.UPDATE...MOST OF SE ALASKA REMAINS IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PATTERN DUE TO A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS AIMED AT
THE PANHANDLE FROM DUE SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS APPROXIMATELY
OVER COLD BAY THIS EVENING WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -30C IN THE
CORE. THIS CENTER IS OVER A MATURE 955 MB SFC LOW. THE CRUNCHER
THAT IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WAS STORM FORCE 976 MB JUST OFF
HAIDA GWAII AT 9 PM. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THIS LOW IS JUST
ABOUT AS DEEP AS IT WILL GET UBT WITH AN EXTREME PRESSURE GRADIENT
ON THE SOUTHERN QUADS AND A NICE SPIRAL WRAP OCCLUDED FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WARNINGS ARE OUT FOR HIGH WIND AND HUGE SEAS PLUS
CONTINUED SNOW IN WHITE PASS AND THE HAINES ROAD. THE TEMPERATURE
HAS RISEN TO 27F IN WHITE PASS AND MAY EVEN CHANGE TO RAIN THERE
TOMORROW. THE TRACK OF THE STORM CENTER IS TYPICAL RECURVATURE
TOWARD YAKUTAT BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MONDO INTENSE AS IT MOVES
INLAND TUE MORNING. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS
FRONT FOR A BIG WIND SHIFT IN A LOT OF LOCATIONS. SOME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN YUKON TUE. STRONG WIND
EVERYWHERE OR EVEN WORSE THROUGH AT LEAST NOON TUE. IMPACTS COULD
BE POWER OUTAGES AND WIND DAMAGE. ON THE TWO NORTHERN ROADS IF YOU
ADD WATER TO THE PACKED SNOW AND ICE YOU HAVE VERY HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDTIONS AND THE PLOWS WILL BE BUSY. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH ON OUR WARNINGS TO VERIFY.

.LONG TERM...THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HELPED TO PUSH THE WIND KICKS
OUT EAST TUE EVENING BUT ANOTHER STORM DEVELOPS WELL S OF KODIAK
ALSO TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE A MONDO STRONG FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN GULF ON WED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE WIND ALONG
THE OUTER COAST AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HUGE. ALSO A SECONDARY HIGH
LEVEL JET WILL LINE UP ALONG 138W EARLY WED. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN
LATER ON WED INTO THU BUT WITH A CONTINUED LONG FETCH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF FOR CONTUED WET AND MILD. THERE ARE PRETTY GOOD
INDICATORS THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA LATER ON SATURDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS WE WILL FINALLY
GET SOME DRYING WITH BLUE SKIES SUNDAY AND BEYOND FOR ALL OF SE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU MIDDAY TUE.
THE GREATEST HAZARD WILL BE LLWS ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL WIND
SHIFTS TO SW TUE MORNING. JUNEAU HAS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF A
HAZARDOUS FISH CREEK WIND REGIME SOMETIME AROUND 17Z TUE AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE 06Z TAF. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONDS WILL
IMPROVE TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A RARE HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
CLARENCE ST WITH LOTS OF STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH. SEAS ARE HUGE
WITH A LONG LONG LONG FETCH. AS OF THIS WRITING 46205 HAS 24 FT.
HIGHEST WIND REPORT SO FAR G57 KT AT CAPE DECISION AND KETCHIKAN
ROOF WIND PEAK AT 58 KT. THIS IS NOT THE PEAK OF THIS STORM.
GREAT TIME TO STAY IN PORT AND THROW ANOTHER LINE ON THE CLEATS
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM 0.5
INCHES TO 2.3 INCHES. RIVERS ARE SO LOW THAT THIS IS NO FACTOR.
AROUND 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN WHITE PASS THIS MORNING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ024-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
     STRONG WIND FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
     STRONG WIND FROM 6 AM AKST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ025.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ022-023.
     STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM AKST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ022-023.
     STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM AKST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ020.
     STRONG WIND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ021.
     STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM AKST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ019.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ019.
     STRONG WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ036.
     STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-041>043.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053.
&&

JC

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