Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Juneau, AK

783 
FZAK51 PAJK 031915 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-040100-
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL WEAKEN
SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER B.C. AND THE YUKON
CAUSING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS TO DEVELOP. 

$$

PKZ011-040100-
GLACIER BAY-
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-040100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-040100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ021-040100-
ICY STRAIT-
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. STRONGEST WINDS WESTERN AREA. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. STRONGEST WINDS WESTERN AREA. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ022-040100-
CROSS SOUND-
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
SW SWELL IN THE EVENING.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-040100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5
FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ032-040100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-040100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT SUBSIDING NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7
FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCE. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT... EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ034-040100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-040100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCE. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCE. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 6 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-040100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1015 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
352 PM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST WEATHER FRONT IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND IS ROUGHLY FROM SITKA
TO HAINES THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD BE FROM
CAPE DECISION TO SOUTH OF TAKU INLET. THE FRONT BAND WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE
MAIN FRONT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ONSHORE. EXTRA LIFT OF THE SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IS SPARKING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS COULD SPREAD AS FAR AS YAKUTAT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS NOT
INDICATED ANY THUNDER EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING. THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTION OF THE PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY STAY DRY OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

LOCALLY WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND WITH MUCH OF THE WINDS UNDER 20 KT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPANDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON SHOULD SEE THE WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO A
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THOUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR WHITE PASS AND HAINES BORDER WAS CANCELLED AS
FRONTAL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED EAST AND RATES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED.

.LONG TERM...AS A SOUTHERLY JET EXITS INTO CANADA A LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND AMPLIFY A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL
OFFSHORE TO THE WEST AND SUSTAIN A LONG DURATION DRY SPELL OVER
MOST OF SOUTHEAST. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL FOIL IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEATHER CONCERNING A CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER OREGON AND AN IMPLIED TREK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, THE OVERALL SCRIPT SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
NEXT WEEKEND...THERE IS A CHANCE OF A RIDGE BREAKDOWN AS A FRONT
SWINGS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SETTING UP A WEAK OVERRUNNING EVENT.

THE SURFACE PATTERN LOOKED SOLID ENOUGH TO TAKE A PASS ON CHANGES
TO THE WIND FORECAST. OFFSHORE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST OR
NORTH WILL BLOW STRONGEST OUT OF PASSES AND NEAR THE COAST
MOUNTAINS, AND DEPENDING ON SHORT-WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE RIDGE,
WEAK MOUNTAIN- WAVES NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU MAY FLARE FROM TIME TO
TIME. LYNN CANAL WILL SEE MINIMUM GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA STRENGTHENS AS SKIES
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES DROP. OUTSIDE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN BENIGN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS A PROSPECTIVE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.

AS SKIES CLEAR...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...MOST NOTICEABLY
DURING NIGHTTIME HOURS. WE HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK BUT COOLED THEM MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEENS ARE PROBABLE IN
HAINES, GUSTAVUS, AND THE MENDENHALL VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS WITH THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE UNDER SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. SINGLE-DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AT WHITE PASS
AND HAINES CUSTOMS AS WELL AS HYDER.

CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO BUILD A MODERATE TO STRONG INVERSION AS
HEAT RADIATES AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TO LAYERS ALOFT. GIVEN RECENT
RAINS AND THE PERIODIC MOISTURE FROM TIDE MARSHES, SOME LOCAL
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD. SOME INHIBITING FACTORS INCLUDE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
MAKING MOISTURE FLUX MORE DIFFICULT AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF
DRYING OFFSHORE WINDS AND HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT THE PATCHY FOG, AND FEEL THE BEST CHANCE OF INITIATION
WILL BE MONDAY MORNING, BUT THAT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE A STRUGGLE.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF AN OREGON CUT-
OFF LOW AND WHETHER IT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WHEN, IF
IT DOES. RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LACKING
WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT WE DID BLEND SOME GFS INTO THE DRIER
FORECAST TO HEDGE WITH MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THIS MAY SPREAD CLOUDS
BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

LASTLY...THE POTENTIAL OF A FRONT CARRYING WARMER, MOIST AIR TO
THE SURFACE AND SPREADING PRECIPITATION AS RAIN ALONG MOST OF THE
COAST AND SNOW FOR YAKUTAT AND POINTS INLAND NEXT WEEKEND IS
THERE, BUT GIVEN THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG AND THAT THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST, AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE PROJECTED
TO BE LIGHT.

CONFIDENCE GENERALLY GOOD IN FORECAST FOR MID-RANGE. CONFIDENCE
FALLS INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-031-034-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

BEZENEK/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU