Small Craft Advisory 802, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
824 AM AKST Wed Dec 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...Active weather continues for Southeast Alaska
through Wednesday night. Multiple impulses will cross the region
today leading to continued cloudy skies and high POPs. However,
winds will be on the diminishing trend through the day as the
pressure gradient weakens over the area. Shower activity by this
evening will lessen noticeably over the southern panhandle with
some breaks in the cloud cover possible. Weakening southerly winds
combined with weak CAA aloft will bring snow levels down to sea
level for most areas by tonight. Snow accumulation with these
showers is expected to generally range between 1 to 2 inches. The
exception again will be in the far northern panhandle and higher
elevations.

12z NAM and hi-res guidance were used for updates to the next 24
hours.

.LONG TERM...Low pressure moves east over the northern gulf
into Thursday and then southeast past the panhandle during
Friday. The low keeps spinning showers towards the southeast
panhandle. With the low moving southward, precipitation will
taper off from the north Friday and Saturday. Precipitation type
has been an issue especially along the coastal region. This will
continue to remain so as temperatures slowly cool a degree or two
a day overall into the weekend.

Friday to Saturday will see a surface ridge build over the gulf
and pass through the panhandle by Saturday evening. A front then looks
to cross the gulf this weekend. With the parent low staying over
the Bering Sea, the operational GFS and ECMWF are handling remains
of a front somewhat differently as it moves into Southeast
Alaska. Therein lies the key between precipitation or a dry
holiday weekend.

Long rang portion of the forecast appears to head back to a more
active pattern again for early next week. Confidence is average to
start with and lowering slightly as the weather pattern re-
energizes after Saturday.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031-034-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ051>053.
&&

TPS/Bezenek

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