Small Craft Advisory 769, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
315 PM AKST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...Overrunning snow event across the north central
panhandle is the main forecast issue with the trouble part being QPF
amounts and where the snow bands will organize. There was band of
heavier snow from this morning forecast from Cross Sound to
southern Lynn Canal and that continues to look fairly good with
minor QPF adjustments. Models began to agree that a secondary
band will spread north from Frederick Sound to the Juneau area on
Wednesday and that should bring several additional inches of snow
on Wednesday. Thus needed to upgrade the Juneau area to Warning
through Wednesday night, and expanded Winter Weather Advisories to
the Sitka and Angoon areas for Wednesday.

Snow for the Yakutat area through this evening then lessening the
amounts as the best areas of the showers will have started to push
southeast across the northern panhandle.

The southern panhandle is expected to stay dry with lesser amounts
of clouds into Wednesday. Winds have essentially weakened to
Small Craft levels at the worst along the outer waters 25 to 30
kt...through the outflow area near Cross sound will see Gales
into Tuesday evening.

.LONG TERM...Blocky upper ridge will remain over the NW part of
AK into late week, then shift SE over interior AK for the weekend.
Upper low over the gulf will weaken some and drift SW through late
week. Upper trofs will move S across SE AK for late week into
early next week. Pattern will favor cold and dry weather once
current system moves out of the area late Wed night and Thu.
Models suggest a shot of colder air this weekend with upper trof
moving S through the area, then another shot of even colder air
will be possible around the middle of next week. Used 12z NAM/GFS
blend for pressures/winds for Wed night into Thu evening, then 12z
GFS/00z ECMWF for later Thu night and Fri. Went with latest WPC
for Fri night onward.

With strong arctic high remaining over NW Canada through the
upcoming week, strong N winds will be the rule. Also, potential
for Taku winds in Juneau starting around Thu, and they may last
into the weekend. Later shifts will need to monitor this
potential. Have increased winds over much of the inner channels
for the latter part of the week and weekend, and Lynn Canal may
need to be increased a bit more. Did not change temps with this
forecast, but they may need to be trended cooler for the weekend
and early next week. Models differ on how cold it will get though.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ023-024.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST
     Wednesday for AKZ025.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ020-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ021.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST
     Wednesday for AKZ019.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-033-041-042-051-052.
&&

Bezenek/RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1032 PM AKST TUE DEC 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HEAVY SNOW       GUSTAVUS                58.41N 135.80W
12/06/2016  M5.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 930 AM. MODERATE SNOW.

0550 PM     SNOW             PELICAN                 57.95N 136.21W
12/06/2016  E7.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7 INCHES IN 11 HOURS. DRIFTING. 35 MPH FREQUENT GUSTS.

0600 PM     SNOW             3 SW MENDENHALL GLACIER 58.39N 134.60W
12/06/2016  M3.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            3 INCHES MEASURED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

0630 PM     SNOW             1 SE AUKE BAY           58.37N 134.63W
12/06/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0630 PM     SNOW             4 S MENDENHALL GLACIER  58.36N 134.55W
12/06/2016  M3.8 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FALLEN SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.

0900 PM     SNOW             2 S MENDENHALL GLACIER  58.39N 134.55W
12/06/2016  M5.0 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            5 INCHES TOTAL TODAY.

0900 PM     SNOW             JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
12/06/2016  M3.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            JUNEAU DOWNTOWN 3 INCHES TODAY

0930 PM     SNOW             2 SE AUKE BAY           58.36N 134.61W
12/06/2016  E3.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FRITZ COVE 3.5 TODAY

1000 PM     SNOW             PELICAN                 57.95N 136.21W
12/06/2016  E10.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING. 10 INCHES SINCE 7 AM THIS MORNING.

1015 PM     SNOW             10 NW AUKE BAY          58.48N 134.85W
12/06/2016  U8.0 INCH        PKZ031             AK   PUBLIC

            8 INCHES AT COHEN DRIVE

0800 PM     SNOW             NW JUNEAU               58.30N 134.41W
12/06/2016  E2.5 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            NORTH DOUGLAS TODAY.

&&

JWA