Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2016
Small Craft Advisory 554, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this small craft advisory at Sep 9, 2016, 4:00 PM AKDT. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 9, 2016, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 9, 2016, 11:46 PM AKDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted.
593 FZAK51 PAJK 092351 CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-101400- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DURING SATURDAY. $$ PKZ011-101400- GLACIER BAY- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 .TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 10 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ012-101400- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 .TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE EVENING... THEN BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 10 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ013-101400- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 .TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ021-101400- ICY STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. EAST OF POINT ADOLPHUS...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ022-101400- CROSS SOUND- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. .SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ031-101400- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ032-101400- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ033-101400- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ034-101400- FREDERICK SOUND- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ035-101400- SUMNER STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. SHOWERS. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING W 10 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ036-101400- CLARENCE STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$
1 follow-up statement
618 FZAK51 PAJK 100746 AAA CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-101400- 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DURING SATURDAY. $$ PKZ011-101400- GLACIER BAY- 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 .TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 10 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ012-101400- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 UPDATED .REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 10 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ013-101400- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 UPDATED .REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ021-101400- ICY STRAIT- 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 UPDATED .REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ022-101400- CROSS SOUND- 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. .SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ031-101400- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ032-101400- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ033-101400- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ034-101400- FREDERICK SOUND- 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ035-101400- SUMNER STRAIT- 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. .SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING W 10 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ036-101400- CLARENCE STRAIT- 1146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 UPDATED .REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. .SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Sep 9, 5:55 AM AKDT, 10 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 9, 5:55 AM AKDT, 10 hours 5 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
555 AM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...Upper level trough moving down from the AK
peninsula will move into the eastern gulf through Friday
afternoon then begin to track into the panhandle through Friday
night. Remnants of Tropical Storm Lester are just ahead of this
trough tracking across the eastern gulf this morning then pushing
across the panhandle in the afternoon. Surface low, seen on water
vapor satellite imagery, have deepened to around 992 mb early this
morning and will track over Cross Sound this afternoon the travel over
the panhandle tonight. Will still have a weak surface wave in the
northern gulf tonight until the upper level trough crosses over
the panhandle.
Occluded frontal band around low has moved strong easterly winds
over the gulf coastal and southern panhandle. Wind gusts upwards
of 30 to 40 kts reported at PAHY and PANT so far. As the low moves
inland winds will subside, then quickly shift west and increase.
Outer coast of Baranof Island will get the brunt of these westerly
winds, so a high wind warning has been issued for AKZ023.
Strongest of the westerlies will occur between 4 and 6 pm tonight.
As the main surface low moves into northern British Columbia
westerlies will subside and shift back to the southeast late this
evening.
Ample tropical moisture from remnants of Lester with precipitable
water standard deviations of 2 to 3 above normal. Moderate to
Heavy rain began this morning over the entire panhandle as the
occluded front advances, 1 hour rain rates upwards of 0.25 to 0.35
inches have been reported. These rain rates will continue through
the morning then begin to taper off by the afternoon. Six hour
rainfall rates for tonight will be less than a quarter of an inch,
heaviest amounts over the central panhandle and at higher
elevations.
Model were still showing slight shifts with each new model runs.
These changes, while not changing magnitude of winds, did changes
position and timing. 00z and then 06Z runs moved the low center
eastward at a faster clip. Used a blend of GFS/NAM and a
combination of the 00z and 06z runs. Forecast confidence is only
average due to timing issues of the winds.
.LONG TERM..Showers will remain over southeast Alaska in the
wake of the storm force low currently affecting the panhandle and
eastern gulf. Heavy precip will have ended by then, but moderate
intensity showers are still possible. Shower activity will end
from north to south Saturday night and Sunday is looking like it
will be a mostly sunny day as well as dry. The break will not last
too long, as another front will move in from the west early next
week with more heavy rain. Whereas the current front in generally
moving from SW to NE, the next one will spread heavy rain from
west to east to Cape Fairweather, and then down the outer coast.
00Z model run of the GFS and Canadian NH are faster to push the
front through than ECMWF. 06Z GFS is slower and looks more like
the EC. Have opted to stay with the slower EC for now and wait for
better agreement before speeding things up. Regardless of the
speed, all are depicting a relatively narrow frontal band with
maximum QPF values over the outer coast and coast mountains. Winds
associated with this front not expected to be nearly as strong as
with the current low. Have up to 30 kts over the central gulf with
a 30 kt easterly barrier jet forming west of Icy Bay overnight
Sunday night.
Used an ensemble approach for pressure updates Sunday and Sunday
night based on good model agreement with NAM as a foundation for
winds. PoP and QPF from SREF and the Canadian NH for Sunday/Sunday
night, but used ECMWF for Tuesday/Tuesday night. No significant
changes to the remainder of the extended range forecast. Overall
forecast confidence is average. .
&&
.AVIATION...Mainly MVFR due to heavy rain so far with IFR
conditions over the southern areas. Improving ceilings and
visibility as the front moves inland. Gusts to 40 mph over the
southern panhandle today will subside. Main impact winds for the
central panhandle will be the developing westerlies this
afternoon. Sitka wind gusts to 50 kt expected mid to late Friday
afternoon. Low level southeasterly wind shear will shift to the
southwest through the day and increase.
&&
.MARINE...Storm force outflow winds on northeast quadrant of the
low this morning will diminish as storm force westerlies develop
south of the low this afternoon. Gulf winds will then become more
uniform westerly gales by tonight. Coastal inner channel easterly gales
will subside then increase as gradient shift west. These stronger
westerly winds will drop off in the early evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Heavy rainfall through the morning already causing
sharp rises in local rivers and streams. At this time only the
Taiya river near Skagway is expected to rise to minor flood
stage, while other only expected to rise to bankfull through this
afternoon and evening. Storm total accumulation around 2 to 5
niches with additional 1 to 3 inches through the day.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ023-026.
STRONG WIND until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ027-028.
STRONG WIND this evening for AKZ025.
STRONG WIND through this evening for AKZ022.
High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this
evening for AKZ023.
STRONG WIND from this evening through late tonight for AKZ023.
Areal Flood Advisory until 2 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ042-043.
Gale Warning for PKZ022-033-034-036-041-051-052.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031-032-035-053.
&&
PRB/Fritsch
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauIn the hours before
Local storm report, Sep 9, 1:00 PM AKDT, 3 hours before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
100 PM AKDT FRI SEP 09 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN PELICAN 57.95N 136.21W
09/09/2016 M1.89 INCH AK CO-OP OBSERVER
24-HOUR RAINFALL, MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN ANGOON 57.50N 134.59W
09/09/2016 M0.83 INCH AK AWOS
14-HOUR TOTAL
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN HOONAH 58.11N 135.44W
09/09/2016 M2.01 INCH AK ASOS
14-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN KETCHIKAN 55.34N 131.65W
09/09/2016 M2.13 INCH AK ASOS
17 HOUR STORM TOTAL
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN ANNETTE 55.04N 131.59W
09/09/2016 M2.18 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN GUSTAVUS 58.41N 135.80W
09/09/2016 M1.18 INCH AK ASOS
14-HOUR TOTAL
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN JUNEAU 58.30N 134.41W
09/09/2016 M1.42 INCH AK ASOS
14-HOUR TOTAL
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN SITKA 57.05N 135.34W
09/09/2016 M1.16 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN KLAWOCK 55.55N 133.09W
09/09/2016 M1.29 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN WRANGELL 56.47N 132.40W
09/09/2016 M1.28 INCH AK AWOS
14-HOUR TOTAL
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN PETERSBURG 56.81N 132.96W
09/09/2016 M1.07 INCH AK AWOS
14-HOUR TOTAL
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN YAKUTAT 59.54N 139.73W
09/09/2016 M1.30 INCH AK ASOS
14-HOUR TOTAL
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN KAKE 56.97N 133.93W
09/09/2016 M0.89 INCH AK AWOS
14-HOUR TOTAL
&&
JWASpecial weather statement, Sep 9, 3:22 PM AKDT, 38 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 322 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 AKZ019>025-101400- HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-GLACIER BAY- EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND- SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA- CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA- EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND- JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH... ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...JUNEAU 322 PM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2016 ...STEEP RIVER RISES THROUGH TONIGHT... HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE ON THE WAY FROM A STRONG AND MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM. SO FAR THE AREA HAS SEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH UP TO ANOTHER 1 INCH EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL STREAMS ARE RISING RAPIDLY FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN FALL. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO FLOODING EXPECTED BUT SMALL STREAMS WILL RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL LEVELS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED OVER ANGOON AND SITKA HOWEVER AREAS FURTHER NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. PEOPLE WHO LIVE OR RECREATE NEAR SMALL STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND TAKE ACTION IF NEEDED. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 600 AM AKDT SATURDAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. BEZENEK
Local storm report, Sep 9, 3:43 PM AKDT, 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKDT FRI SEP 09 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0300 PM HEAVY RAIN WRANGELL 56.47N 132.40W
09/09/2016 M1.41 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
0300 PM HEAVY RAIN PETERSBURG 56.81N 132.96W
09/09/2016 M1.28 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
0300 PM HEAVY RAIN KAKE 56.97N 133.93W
09/09/2016 M0.97 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
0300 PM HEAVY RAIN ANGOON 57.50N 134.59W
09/09/2016 M1.34 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
0300 PM HEAVY RAIN JUNEAU 58.30N 134.41W
09/09/2016 M1.85 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
0300 PM HEAVY RAIN HOONAH 58.11N 135.44W
09/09/2016 M2.94 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
0300 PM HEAVY RAIN GUSTAVUS 58.41N 135.80W
09/09/2016 E1.32 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
0300 PM HEAVY RAIN SKAGWAY 59.48N 135.33W
09/09/2016 M0.46 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
0300 PM HEAVY RAIN YAKUTAT 59.54N 139.73W
09/09/2016 M1.65 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
0300 PM HEAVY RAIN SITKA 57.05N 135.34W
09/09/2016 M1.28 INCH AK ASOS
17-HOUR TOTAL
&&
JWAThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 4:00 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Sep 9, 4:00 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 8 hr | |
| Sep 9, 4:00 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 8 hr | |
| Sep 9, 4:00 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Sep 9, 7:42 PM AKDT | Areal Flood Advisory | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Sep 9, 11:42 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 4 days | |
| Sep 9, 11:46 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 16 hr | |
| Sep 10, 8:59 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 19 hr | |
| Sep 10, 3:48 PM AKDT | Areal Flood Advisory | AJK | 12 hr |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.