Small Craft Advisory 421, NWS Juneau, AK

075 
FZAK51 PAJK 101827 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-110100-
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTLOOK. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
SATURDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-110100-
GLACIER BAY-
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-110100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-110100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-110100-
ICY STRAIT-
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-110100-
CROSS SOUND-
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG LATE. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-110100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. HIGHER GUSTS SOUTH OF
DOUGLAS ISLAND IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-110100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-110100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR CAPE DECISION IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-110100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-110100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

PKZ036-110100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1027 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016


...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

146 
FZAK51 PAJK 102325
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-111400-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. 

$$

PKZ011-111400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SPRINKLES
LATE.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SPRINKLES.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS TO 3 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ012-111400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SPRINKLES
LATE.
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ013-111400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SPRINKLES
LATE.
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS TO 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ021-111400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SPRINKLES
LATE.
.SAT...W WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SPRINKLES.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
LATE. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ022-111400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SPRINKLES
LATE.
.SAT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SPRINKLES.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING N 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-111400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ032-111400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ033-111400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ034-111400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS TO 4 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ035-111400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS TO 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ036-111400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS TO 4 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS TO 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 PM AKDT THU JUN 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...Rather quiet 24 hour period on tap for Southeast
Alaska. There is quite a temperature contrast this afternoon with
mid to upper 70s across the northern panhandle and low to mid 50s
across the south. The south is much cooler due to an upper low
situated off the Pacific Northwest coast which has brought clouds
and a band of rain into the southern panhandle early this morning.
A northerly pressure gradient over the north resulted in downslope
warming with temperatures hitting the 80 degree mark in Skagway by
11am. The upper low will continue to slowly drift to the
southeast through Friday afternoon with a weak ridge of high
pressure building over the eastern gulf. Under this weak ridge of
high pressure a band of marine stratus will expand along the
outer coast and extend northward to the vicinity of Yakutat by
late tonight. Current indications are this layer will remain
elevated (1000-1500 ft ceiling) and not reduce visibility at the
surface. There is lower confidence in this portion of the
forecast, but it will continue to be monitored by the next shift.

With the ridge building over the panhandle through the day, winds
have shifted to the south. The far northern panhandle remains
northerly as of early afternoon but expect winds to switch to the
south by late afternoon and increase to 20-25 kt in Lynn Canal. By
late tonight, the pressure gradient relaxes across the area with
winds becoming light. Strongest winds on Friday will be across the
northern Inner Channels with southerlies increasing to 15-20 kt in
the afternoon. The lack of northerly wind component and more cloud
cover on Friday will result in cooler high temperatures with many
locations in the 60s. Expect high temperatures to be 5 to 10
degrees cooler than today across the northern panhandle.

Relied on Hi-Res model guidance for updates to the short term
forecast.

.LONG TERM...Progressive upper level pattern will produce large
scale changes in the weather over the coming week with shifts from
offshore flow to onshore, and then back to offshore flow. mid
level circulations are a bit more subtle with these changes but
still apparent. At the surface, a weak surface trough will be
working its way across the top of the surface ridge situated over
the gulf and a threat of rain re-enters the forecast for Yakutat
as early as Saturday morning. Meanwhile, scattered showers from
the east will still be present along the coast mountains, with
greater frequency and areal coverage over the southern half of the
panhandle. Saturday night, a low and associated front will move
into the central gulf with rain from this front arriving Sunday
morning. Details in the structure of the front differ from model
to model, but it does look like the highest probability of rain
and the largest rainfall totals will be over the southern half of
the panhandle. Look for 6-hourly totals of 0.25 inches or less, so
flooding and significant rises in streams not a concern at this
time. Precip is forecast to taper off through early next week and
by mid week, we may be back into an offshore regime at the surface
as another trough builds west from British Columbia across the
panhandle and into the Gulf of Alaska. Is this happens, look for a
patter similar to what we have going on right now with shower
activity concentrated along the coast mountains and fair
conditions west to the outer coast.

Northwesterly winds over the eastern gulf Friday night will give
way to southwesterlies on Saturday and the southeasterlies by
Saturday night in advance of the front. Winds speeds through this
time will be generally 15 kts of less, but increase to 20 kts out
of the southeast. Post-frontal, the low will track northwest into
the far northern gulf, resulting in southwesterlies at 15 kts or
so on the outer coast once again by early next week. On the
inside, winds generally 10 kts with pockets of 15 kts at times in
various locations. Notable exceptions will be Lynn Canal with
southerlies of 20 kt through Saturday evening and then again
Monday evening.

Overall forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012.
&&

TPS/Fritsch

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