Small Craft Advisory 381, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
200 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A 984 MB LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR 48N 155W AT
18Z. A RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE FROM A 1028
MB HIGH OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OFFSHORE MARINE
ZONE 310 BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
AS THE LOW APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24-HRS. THE OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AK PANHANDLE SOUTHERN
COAST NEAR THE DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION LATE TODAY.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE THIS PACKAGE WERE GETTING THE FINE
DETAILS PINNED DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ADJUSTING FOR NEWER MODEL
DATA/OBSERVATION TRENDS. THE SPIRIT OF THE INHERITED GOING
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. AS SUCH, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE GIVEN THIS, GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY, AND GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH THE HANDLING OF FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
ABOUT 72-HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUED TO BE CENTERED
ON PRECIPITATION AND WINDS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN TERMS OF
A REPRIEVE THE REST OF TODAY AS IT RELATES TO PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STEADY RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND EAST. CATEGORICAL POPS
WERE USED OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW REACHES ABOUT 52N 148W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
TONIGHT FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION AND THEN SPREAD NORTH
FROM CAPE DECISION TO ICY CAPE. MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE INNER CHANNELS SUBSEQUENTLY.

SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW IN MUCH OF THE MARINE
ZONES. OTHERWISE, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL WITH HIGH POPS IN PLACE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUAD OF MARINE ZONE 310 BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRENDING DOWN ACROSS
THE CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA. THE LOW WILL
BE WEAKENING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPS TO 1002
MB AND MOVES TO THE CENTER OF MARINE ZONE 310.

.LONG TERM...THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE
WEAKENED TO AROUND 1012 MB AND THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION. A DRYING TREND WILL
THEN TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING
COASTAL AREA. ELSEWHERE, NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL BECOMING
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND WILL THEN BECOME A TROUGH BY WED NIGHT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. A DRYING TREND WILL TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA WED NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE DRYING TREND AND
THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-031>035-053.
&&

ET

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