Small Craft Advisory 113, NWS Juneau, AK

723 
FZAK52 PAJK 010641 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
941 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-020045-
941 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA TONIGHT THEN WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN INLAND OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA EARLY MON. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL
APPROACH THE OUTER COAST TUE AFTERNOON BUT WILL WEAKEN. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE UP TO DIXON ENTRANCE FROM THE SW WED
MORNING.  

$$

PKZ041-020045-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
941 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
SW SWELL.
.MON...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-020045-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
941 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT.
SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-020045-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
941 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AND INCREASING
TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-020045-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
941 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. SW
SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-020045-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
941 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. S
SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 



$$

645 
FZAK52 PAJK 011244
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-020100-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TODAY AND WEAKEN AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE OUTER COAST TUE. A STRONGER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF WED.  

$$

PKZ041-020100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN. SW SWELL.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SW SWELL.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-020100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN. SW SWELL.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-020100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. SW SWELL.
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN. SW SWELL.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SW SWELL.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-020100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. S SWELL.
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. S SWELL.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-020100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL.
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. S SWELL.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. S SWELL.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SLOWLY KICKING OUT
EASTWARD INTO B.C. THE SURFACE RIDGE ALSO REMAINS OFF THE COAST AND
IS WEAKENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES CLEARING FROM CAPE
SUCKLING TO CAPE SPENCER AND INLAND AREAS. CIRRUS FROM AN
APPROACHING FRONT IS JUST MAKING IT TO 140W AND SHIP OBS AND BUOYS
ARE STILL 15 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPR JET SPLITS INTO THE
RIDGE. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FIRST PROBLEM WITH CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE RADIATION
FOG. WE STAYED WITH PATCHY BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IN SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS. NEXT IS WIND AND PRECIP WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. KEPT
THE WIND AND RAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS
FRONT WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT COMES INTO THE UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUT IS THE FIRST TO START THE BREAKDOWN OF A BLOCKING HIGH.

.LONG TERM...A WET FORECAST IN STORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WEAK
AND DYING WEATHER FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. THIS
WEATHER FRONT IS GOING TO BRING IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT, SO ONLY ANTICIPATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WEATHER FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING IN
ENOUGH WARM AIR INTO THE AREA, SO MOST OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PRE-EXISTING POLAR CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY AS SNOW IN THE
INSIDE PASSAGE, WITH OUTER COAST SOUTH OF SITKA, AND KETCHIKAN
AREA SEEING MOSTLY RAIN. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UP
ALONG THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE AREAS, WHILE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OR TWO FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WEATHER FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY OVER THE
PANHANDLE.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT, A MUCH STRONGER WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS
THE OUTER COAST. THIS WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING IN MUCH STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND THE WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT FURTHER INLAND.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ALSO STRONGER VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WEATHER FRONT, SO PRECIPITATION RATE WILL BE HIGHER.
WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATE, THERE WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN. RIGHT NOW, THINKING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HOVERING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S WITH RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
WILL BE A PRETTY BIG CHANGE COMPARED TO THE SNOWLESS JANUARY MOST
OF THE AREA HAVE SEEN. THE SWEET SPOT FOR SNOW WILL BE IN HAINES,
SKAGWAY, AND THE KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON THE
GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE PANHANDLE.
UTILIZE A BLEND OF ECMWF/GEM/NAM IN UPDATING THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR BEST FLYING FOR A WHILE IN THE SHORT TERM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE. PESKY FOG TONIGHT SHOULD CAUSE MVFR AT SOME
AERODROMES AND PATCHY LIFR. ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND WILL END FOG.
MORNING CLEAR-OUT SHOULD GO QUICKLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
&&

.MARINE...THINKING 25 KT OR SO AS THE FRONT GETS UP TO THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH THAT AND THERE IS
ALREADY SOME SWELL OUT THERE. INSIDE PROBLEM MAY BE FOG & WILL
MENTION AS PATCHY. ANY WIND WILL HELP TO PREVENT DENSE FOG.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

JC/RCL

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