High Wind Watch 5, NWS Juneau, AK

013 
WWAK77 PAJK 120618
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1018 PM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2016


AKZ018-121830-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.A.0005.160913T0600Z-160913T1500Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1018 PM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATION...SKAGWAY AND THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PEAK MID TO LATE EVENING ON 
  MONDAY AND BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY UPROOT TREES AND PRODUCE FALLING 
  BRANCHES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES. 
  MOORED VESSELS AND AIRCRAFT TIED DOWN OUTDOORS WILL BE AT 
  RISK. LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH... OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

$$

291 
WWAK77 PAJK 121628
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
828 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

AKZ018-130100-
/O.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0005.160913T0600Z-160913T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0007.160913T0300Z-160913T1500Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
828 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
AKDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM AKDT
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...SKAGWAY AND THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PEAK EARLY IN THE EVENING MONDAY
  BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY UPROOT TREES AND PRODUCE FALLING 
  BRANCHES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES. 
  MOORED VESSELS AND AIRCRAFT TIED DOWN OUTDOORS WILL BE AT 
  RISK. LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
554 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...Upper level high pressure ridge moves over the
eastern AK gulf the over the panhandle. Upper level low currently
over the western tip of the Aleutian chain will progress eastward
riding over the flattening upper level ridge. Surface front
associated with the upper level trough will cross into the western
gulf Sunday evening just reaching the northeastern gulf Sunday
night.

Clear skies under this ridge will last through the day with some
increasing high clouds from the west this afternoon and evening.
Clouds will thicken and lower late tonight. Rain will reach
Yakutat late this afternoon and into the evening. Calm winds this
morning will increase with afternoon sea breezes, but winds for
today will generally remain below 15 kt due to weak pressure
gradient. The exception will be as ridge axis moves over the
panhandle northern inner channel winds will start to increase with
small craft southerly winds over Northern Lynn Canal by this
evening. Winds over the northeast gulf will also increase to 30 kt
late tonight.

With saturated air mass from previous rainfall and clear skies, areas
of radiational fog developed this morning over most of the
panhandle. Visibility has dropped below 1 mile for some locations
but expected to improve early as day time heating increases.
Increased cloud cover tonight should limit fog development again
with the exception of the southern panhandle where skies may still
be clear for radiational cooling, however drying during the day
will limit moisture.

Models still in good agreement and showed little change from
previous forecast. GFS/NAM in good agreement and were used to make
slight increases to gulf winds late Sunday night. Visibility
reports from Sunday morning fog has been highly variable so held
off on a dense fog advisory, but at times it has been close.
Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...Extended range forecast remains on track for some
significant wind over the northern inner channels Monday morning through
Tuesday morning with heavy rain spreading down the panhandle
through Tuesday night. Very brief break in the heavy rain and then
another front moves in from the southwest on Wednesday, followed
by yet another on Thursday. No changes to pressure for Monday and
Monday night, but did increase winds a bit per GFS. Think
conditions will max out at high end Gales for Lynn Canal and high
end strong wind for Skagway, so no high wind watch issued with
the morning forecast. Wednesday through Thursday night pressure
and winds from ECMWF. PoP and QPF updated using NAMDNG and SREF
through Tuesday night, then EC, Canadian NH, and GFS22 through
Thursday night. Overall forecast confidence is high for a wet week
ahead with windy conditions over the northern inner channels
through Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR to LIFR conditions due to low ceilings and
visibility from radiation fog will lift by 1700z. Fog coverage
not uniform even at airports in relatively close proximity. VFR to
MVRF conditions by this afternoon and into Sunday night.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041-042.
&&

PRB/Fritsch

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